One stock fell 12.64%, the index fell 0.38%: the arithmetic
Alphabet fell 12.64% and Amazon 4.25% on October 29, 2026; the S&P 500 fell 0.38%. The recovery, concentration and volatility arithmetic for a household.
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Published work
Nov 3, 2026
Nov 2, 2026
Intel beat its guidance, then guided gross margin from 44.1% to 38.0%
Intel's release of October 29, 2026 shows Q3 revenue +21% and EPS $0.52, then guides Q4 to a 38.0% margin and EPS $0.25. A worked reading of both halves.
Nov 2, 2026
Big Tech spent $203bn on capex in one quarter. Cash went negative
Four companies reported $202.9bn of capex for the quarter to September 30, 2026, double a year earlier. Three show negative free cash flow.
Oct 30, 2026
Fed holds at 3.75–4%, 10–2, with two votes for a hike
The October 28, 2026 FOMC kept the range at 3-3/4 to 4 percent; Cook and Hammack wanted a quarter point more. Next morning: GDP +3.4%, PCE inflation 3.6%.
Oct 30, 2026
Alphabet fell 12.64% in a day. The release shows capex above cash flow
Alphabet fell 12.64% on October 29, 2026, larger than all but 6 of 5,583 sessions since 2004. Revenue rose 25%; capex of $51,355m topped operating cash flow.
Oct 27, 2026
Fiscal 2026 deficit $1,992.5bn, up 12%; interest cost $1,051.8bn
The year-end Treasury ledger shows receipts up 3.2%, outlays up 5.5% and the deficit up $217.1bn on fiscal 2025. Interest took 19.5¢ of each receipt dollar.
Oct 27, 2026
Part D 2027: a $2,400 drug cap, and a premium held at its 6% limit
The 2027 Part D cap is $2,400, up from $2,100. The base premium is $41.33, a 6% rise when the formula gave $94.06. Enrollment closes December 7, 2026.
Oct 28, 2026
Q3 GDP lands October 29. First estimates move 0.58 points on average
BEA's advance estimate of July–September 2026 GDP is scheduled for October 29. A guide: three estimates, the annualizing formula, what is already known.
Oct 28, 2026
Estate tax 2026: $15 million each, and one form worth $2 million
The 2026 exclusion is $15,000,000 and the annual gift exclusion $19,000. A $20 million estate owes $2,000,000 or $0 depending on one Form 706 election.
Oct 29, 2026
The $500,000 home-sale exclusion has not moved since 1997
Section 121 shields $250,000 of gain per seller, $500,000 per couple, unchanged since 1997. FHFA's index is up 268% since January 1998.
Oct 29, 2026
A 50%-of-6% match on $80,000 is $2,400, and half is easy to lose
The 2026 401(k) deferral cap is $24,500. The match depends on the plan formula, the paycheck pattern and the vesting clock. The arithmetic, with sources.
Oct 30, 2026
EE bonds pay 2.40%, but the 20-year doubling makes it 3.53%
Series EE bonds issued May through October 2026 earn 2.40% a year, yet Treasury lifts them to double at 20 years. The step is worth about $3,900 on $10,000.
Oct 30, 2026
The $954bn-a-quarter table the Treasury resets on November 4
The refunding statement is scheduled for November 4, 2026. What it decides: coupon auction sizes by tenor, the “several quarters” guidance, buybacks, bills.
Oct 31, 2026
ACA 2027: a single filer at 250% of poverty owes 8.66% of income
The IRS table for 2027 runs from 2.15% to 10.22% of income and stops at 400% of poverty. The out-of-pocket cap is $12,000. Enrollment opens November 1, 2026.
Oct 31, 2026
A $3,400 FSA saves $1,008 at 22%; forfeiting $1,008 is the break-even
The 2026 health FSA limit is $3,400 and the carryover $680. The arithmetic of forfeiture, the grace period and the $7,500 dependent care limit, from the IRS.
Oct 20, 2026
Claiming Social Security at 62 pays 70%; at 70 it pays 124%
With full retirement age 67, a $2,000 benefit is $1,400 at 62 and $2,480 at 70. The three ages, the break-even ages and the survivor rule, from SSA's tables.
Oct 20, 2026
2027 tax brackets: not yet published, but 11 of 12 inputs are in
The IRS had not released the 2027 brackets as of October 20, 2026. The formula is public: a chained-CPI average that was 3.2% higher through August 2026.
Oct 20, 2026
Backdoor Roth: $92,500 in an old IRA makes 92.5% of it taxable
The IRS taxes a conversion in proportion to all your IRA balances at December 31, not the account converted. The 2026 Roth income limits and the arithmetic.
Oct 20, 2026
A harvested loss is worth 24 cents, 15 cents or nothing per dollar
Capital losses offset gains, then $3,000 of ordinary income a year; the rest carries forward. Rebuy within 30 days and the loss moves into the new basis.
Oct 20, 2026
A 13-week T-bill pays 4.19%; the average savings account pays 0.38%
The October 13, 2026 bill auction cleared at 4.185%, exempt from state income tax. The FDIC national savings average for October 2026 is 0.38%.
Oct 20, 2026
The 2020 30-year Treasury is worth 46 cents on the dollar
Treasury sold a 1.375% 30-year bond on August 13, 2020. At the long yields of October 16, 2026 (20-year 5.47%, 30-year 5.43%) it prices near 46. Duration is the reason.
Oct 20, 2026
10-year TIPS pay 2.74% over inflation. The I bond fixed rate is 0.90%
On October 16, 2026 the Treasury real yield curve put 10-year TIPS at 2.74%, three times the I bond fixed rate. Gap, breakeven, tax and cap, in arithmetic.
Oct 20, 2026
Inside $4.48 gasoline: $2.33 crude, 97¢ refining, 52¢ taxes
EIA's May 2026 split of a $4.479 gallon: crude 51.9%, refining 21.7%, distribution 14.8%, taxes 11.5%. The pump price was $4.331 in the week of October 12.
Oct 20, 2026
Home completions fell 27.1% in a year; starts held at 1,275,000
Census: August 2026 completions ran 1,128,000 a year, 27.1% below August 2025, while starts were 1,275,000. The September report was due October 20, 2026.
Oct 20, 2026
The October 27–28 FOMC: three documents, one vote, no dot plot
What the Fed publishes on October 28, 2026, what a 25bp move does to IORB, ON RRP and prime, and the data in hand. A mechanics piece, not a forecast.
Oct 16, 2026
September CPI 3.7%: gasoline up 9.1% did over half the work
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% in September 2026 and 3.7% over 12 months, BLS said on October 14. Core was 2.6%. The arithmetic from the index levels.
Oct 16, 2026
Social Security COLA for 2027 is 3.6%: $75 on the average benefit
SSA set the 2027 COLA at 3.6% on October 14, 2026: a CPI-W average of 328.746 against 317.265. The arithmetic, and what changes in January 2027.
Oct 16, 2026
September CPI puts the I bond inflation rate at 2.04% for November
The March-to-September CPI-U change is 2.04%, up from 1.67% in May. With a 0.90% fixed rate, the arithmetic gives a 5.00% composite from November 1, 2026.
Oct 16, 2026
Big-four bank profit fell to $33.4bn in Q3 2026 from $42.5bn
JPMorgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citi earned $33.4bn in the quarter to September 30, 2026. Reserves were built, and four capital ratios fell.
Oct 16, 2026
Retail sales rose 0.8% in September. Gas stations were 71% of it
Census put September 2026 retail and food services sales at $745.0 billion, up 6.3% on the year. Take out the 3.7% CPI and the real gain is 2.5%.
Oct 16, 2026
Jobless claims 199,000: five straight weeks under 200,000
Initial claims were 199,000 in the week ending October 10, 2026, the 4-week average 198,500, continuing claims 1,710,000. Eight weeks, every revision.
Oct 16, 2026
Producer prices rose 1.3% in September, the most since March 2022
The September 2026 PPI, published October 15, put final demand up 1.3% on the month and 6.3% over 12 months. Energy did much of it. What reached the CPI.
Oct 16, 2026
Mortgage rate holds at 7.40% while the 10-year yield slips to 5.19%
Freddie Mac's October 15, 2026 survey left the 30-year fixed at 7.40% for a second week while the 10-year Treasury yield fell nine basis points.
Oct 13, 2026
Fed minutes: 16 of 18 pencilled in a higher rate by December 2026
The minutes of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting, released October 7, 2026, record a 12–0 hike and “most participants” expecting another by year end.
Oct 13, 2026
Card rate hits 22.36% as revolving balances fall 4.2% in August
The Fed's G.19 for August 2026 shows credit card balances shrinking at a 4.2% annual rate while the card rate ticked up to 22.36%, before the September hike.
Oct 13, 2026
Trade deficit jumped to $105.6bn in August: imports did it
The August 2026 US trade gap widened $12.7bn in a month, almost all on the import side: gold, crude oil and chips. Year to date it is still 19.9% below 2025.
Oct 13, 2026
Jobless claims at 197,000: 36,000 fewer than a year earlier
Initial claims were 197,000 in the week ending October 3, 2026, the 4-week average 198,000, continuing claims 1,716,000. What each counts and what it cannot.
Oct 13, 2026
Net 31% of small firms raised prices in August, NFIB survey says
The NFIB Optimism Index fell to 98.7 in August 2026; September's reading is due October 13. What the index measures, who answers, and why prices matter.
Oct 13, 2026
Four banks, $42.5bn of Q2 profit: how to read the Q3 releases
JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citi and Bank of America report Q3 results on October 13 and 14, 2026. Their Q2 filings show the five lines to read first.
Oct 13, 2026
S&P 500 lost 0.35% in September while nine of 11 sectors fell
S&P DJI's September 30, 2026 dashboard: the index slipped 0.35% in the month and gained 2.30% in Q3, but equal-weight fell 4.81% and small caps 5.57%.
Oct 13, 2026
10-year note sold at 5.300% on October 7; dealers took 2.5% of it
Three Treasury auctions, week of October 6, 2026: 3-year at 4.932%, 10-year at 5.300%, 30-year at 5.618%, all above September. The results, line by line.
Oct 13, 2026
Brent averaged $114 in September. EIA now puts 4Q 2026 at $105
EIA's October 6 outlook raised its Brent projection by $14 a barrel, and its weekly data show the Strategic Petroleum Reserve down to 283 million barrels.
Oct 13, 2026
Gasoline is $4.35: up $1.23 in a year, down 11 cents in a week
EIA's weekly survey put regular at $4.354 a gallon in the week of October 5, 2026. What is inside that number, why California pays $6.23, and your sums.
Oct 13, 2026
Social Security's $184,500 wage cap is $60,600 times 3.045
The taxable maximum is a 1994 figure scaled by a wage index with a two-year lag, rounded to $300. The arithmetic, and what is unannounced for 2027.
Oct 13, 2026
Medicare Part B is $202.90 a month, and $1 of income can add $1,148
The 2026 Part B premium rose 9.7%. The income surcharge starts at $109,000 and is a cliff, not a slope. 2027 figures were unpublished at October 12, 2026.
Oct 13, 2026
529 plans in 2026: $19,000 a year in, up to $35,000 out to a Roth
The 2026 gift exclusion is $19,000, the K-12 cap is $20,000 and the 529-to-Roth limit is $35,000. The state deduction runs from zero to $76,000 a year.
Oct 13, 2026
An HSA shelters $4,400 in 2026. The plan it requires can cost $8,500
The 2026 HSA limits, the high-deductible plan rules that come with them, the three tax exemptions in the IRS's own words, and a 20-year illustration.
Oct 13, 2026
A $26,500 Roth conversion costs $3,180 in 2026. Here is the arithmetic
Rev. Proc. 2025-32 fixes the 2026 brackets. Filling the 12% band, the pro-rata rule on Form 8606 and the two five-year clocks, worked line by line.
Oct 13, 2026
At 7.40%, the 30-year mortgage is up 64 basis points in four weeks
Freddie Mac's October 8, 2026 survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.40%, the highest of 2026: $135.80 more a month on a median new home than four weeks earlier.
Oct 13, 2026
CPI shelter ran 3.0% to August 2026, below the 3.4% headline
A third of the CPI is rent nobody pays in cash. Here is how BLS measures it, why the figure trails the market by design, and what Census vacancy data show.
Oct 13, 2026
IBIT sold 1,062 bitcoin in six months just to pay its 0.25% fee
The largest spot bitcoin ETF held 734,261 bitcoin and $44,187 of cash on June 30, 2026. Its own filings show how shares are made, redeemed and charged.
Oct 13, 2026
NBER took 12 months to date the 2007 peak and 4 to date 2020
The committee that dates US recessions has no formula, no two-quarter rule and no deadline. Its records show lags of 4 to 21 months before a call.
Oct 13, 2026
September CPI, due October 14: the 324.800 base and what BLS publishes
The September 2026 CPI is due at 8:30 a.m. ET on October 14. What BLS publishes, why the September 2025 index level of 324.800 matters, and what hangs on it.
Oct 7, 2026
September added 29,000 jobs, and July turned negative again
Payrolls rose 29,000 in September 2026 and unemployment edged up to 4.2%. Revisions cut July and August by 60,000, putting July back below zero.
Oct 7, 2026
Same 3.4% headline, but the Fed's core gauge ran at 3.0% in August
PCE and CPI inflation were both 3.4% in the year to August 2026. Ex food and energy, the Fed's PCE gauge was 3.0% and the CPI 2.4%. The weights explain why.
Oct 7, 2026
Q2 GDP revised up to 2.2%, while prices rose at 6.1%
BEA's third estimate lifted April–June 2026 growth from 1.5% to 2.2%. Consumers drove it, trade subtracted, and prices rose almost three times as fast.
Oct 7, 2026
The COLA formula, two months in: CPI-W is 3.3% above its base
Social Security's COLA is set by three monthly CPI-W readings. July and August 2026 are in; September's arrives October 14. Here is the arithmetic so far.
Oct 7, 2026
2026 savings limits: $49,750 at age 61, $36,400 at age 45
The IRS limits for 401(k)s, IRAs and HSAs in 2026, how inflation indexing and $500 rounding set them, and what 2027 figures exist so far.
Oct 7, 2026
The I bond's next rate hangs on one CPI number, due October 14
Two CPI-U index levels and a fixed rate Treasury picks make up every I bond rate. We rebuild the formula from the regulation and BLS tables.
Oct 7, 2026
At a 22.15% card APR, $5,000 on minimums takes 21 years to clear
The Fed's second-quarter 2026 card-rate reading is 22.15% on accounts charged interest. What that does to a $5,000 balance, month by month, and how prime moves it.
Oct 7, 2026
Household debt fell $13bn in Q2 2026; card stress held at 6.97%
The New York Fed puts household debt at $18.771 trillion for June 2026. The total dipped; new card delinquencies ran at 4.6 times the mortgage pace.
Oct 7, 2026
House prices rose 2.6% in the year to July, slower than inflation
FHFA's index rose 0.3% in July 2026 and 2.6% over 12 months. With consumer prices up 3.4%, that is a real fall of 0.8%. Three of nine divisions beat it.
Oct 7, 2026
The $250,000 FDIC limit applies per category, not per person
Deposit insurance is counted per depositor, per bank, per ownership category. One married couple's accounts at one bank, worked through dollar by dollar.
Oct 7, 2026
$7.89 trillion sits in money market funds, none of it FDIC-insured
Money market funds run on SEC Rule 2a-7, not deposit insurance. What the 2023 reforms changed, how a 7-day yield works and what it pays on $10,000.
Oct 7, 2026
Micron's 55-cent gap: reading an earnings release line by line
Micron reported $32.87 a share under GAAP and $33.42 adjusted. Its own reconciliation shows where the $697 million went. A worked guide.
Oct 7, 2026
The dollar is flat for 2026, and that hides two opposite moves
The Fed's broad dollar index rose 0.2% from Dec 31, 2025 to Sep 25, 2026. Against the euro and Canadian dollar it gained; against the yuan and peso it fell.
Oct 7, 2026
The 10-year yield gained 1.10 points in 2026. Inflation pricing: 0.11
From December 31, 2025 to October 2, 2026 the 10-year breakeven moved from 2.25% to 2.36%. The real yield did the rest. CPI ran at 3.4%.
Oct 7, 2026
A couple on $120,000 can owe $0 on $40,000 of long-term gains
The 2026 0% capital gains band runs to $98,900 of taxable income for married couples. Gains stack on top of wages, so wages decide how much fits.
Oct 7, 2026
At 73, a $500,000 IRA must pay out $18,867.92: the RMD arithmetic
The IRS rules on required minimum distributions: the start age under SECURE 2.0, the April 1 trap, the divisor table and the 25% excise tax.
Oct 7, 2026
The $400 test: 63% would pay in cash, stuck there since 2022
In the Fed's 2025 household survey, 63% would cover a $400 emergency with cash or its equivalent and 12% could not pay at all. What the question really asks.
Oct 7, 2026
Business bankruptcies pass their 2019 level; personal filings do not
U.S. courts logged 608,511 bankruptcy cases in the 12 months to June 30, 2026, up 12.2%. Business cases now exceed 2019; personal cases are 22.5% below it.
Oct 7, 2026
August 2026: one job opening per unemployed person, quits at 1.9%
JOLTS counted 7,079,000 openings on the last business day of August 2026, against 7,031,000 unemployed. The quits rate held at 1.9%.
Oct 7, 2026
The Fed hiked, yet its balance sheet is bigger than a year ago
Fed total assets were $6.743 trillion on September 30, 2026, up $155.9 billion on the year, as Treasury bill buying has replaced quantitative tightening.
Sep 28, 2026
$39 billion at 4.538%: how one auction set the 10-year yield
The Treasury sold $39.0 billion of 10-year notes in June 2026 at one yield, 4.538%. The machinery that produced that number, from the primary sources.
Sep 28, 2026
At 6.95%, the median new home costs 35% of median household income
One house at $393,700, one household at $87,460, one rate at 6.95%. Every line of the monthly payment from primary sources, set against lenders' own ratios.
Sep 28, 2026
VIX at 20 means the market expects daily moves of about 1.26%
The “fear index” is an annualized standard deviation taken from S&P 500 option prices. Divide it by the square root of 252 and it becomes a daily move.
Sep 28, 2026
S&P 500 firms spent $249 billion on buybacks in Q3 2025. Your share.
The index's own tally: $249.0 billion of repurchases in Q3 2025, $1.020 trillion over 12 months. None of it is a return. Here is what it does to a share.
Sep 28, 2026
How to read a 10-K in twenty minutes: five places the truth hides
An 84-page annual report has five sections that carry most of the information. Here is the order to read them in, tested on a real filing from February 2026.
Sep 28, 2026
The 4% rule was a worst case, not a target: two papers, read closely
Bengen's 1994 paper never used the word SAFEMAX and called 4% the rate that survived the worst 30 years on record. The Trinity tables add the caveats.
Sep 28, 2026
Banks earn 3.90% at the Fed. Savers get 0.37%. The gap, measured
The FDIC's national average savings rate for September 2026 is 0.37%. The Fed pays banks 3.90% on reserves and a 1-year T-bill yielded 4.50% on September 25.
Sep 28, 2026
Interest on the debt outran defense by $141bn in FY2026 to August
The Treasury's own ledger shows $6,811bn spent against $4,845bn collected in eleven months. Net interest, at $1,017bn, is the second-largest line.
Sep 28, 2026
The unemployment rate has six versions. Here is August 2026 in each
The headline 4.1% is U-3. The same BLS release also put the rate at 1.8%, 1.9%, 4.4%, 5.1% and 7.7%. Who each version counts, and what the gaps have meant.
Sep 28, 2026
How the CPI is built: 80,000 prices, and shelter sets the pace
Owners' equivalent rent alone is 26% of the index, priced from a rent survey that revisits each unit every six months. Here is what 3.4% is made of.
Sep 21, 2026
The Fed stopped arguing with itself, and raised rates
In July three officials wanted higher rates and lost. On September 16 the vote was 12–0. Nothing about the committee changed — the data did.
Sep 21, 2026
July's jobs number went from −23,000 to +21,000. That is not a rounding error.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised two months of hiring up by a combined 55,000. One of them changed sign, and it is the figure this publication built an article around.
Sep 21, 2026
August added 162,000 jobs. The average of the prior twelve months was 31,000.
The strongest hiring month in a year sits on top of a twelve-month average five times smaller. Both numbers are true, and only one of them is a trend.
Sep 21, 2026
Pay rose 3.1% in the year to August. Prices rose 3.4%.
Average hourly earnings reached $37.75 in August. Measured against inflation over the same twelve months, the average worker went slightly backwards.
Sep 21, 2026
The unemployment rate held at 4.1%. So did the reason to check the other number.
Labor force participation was 61.6% in August, half a percentage point lower than in January. People who stop looking for work stop being counted as unemployed.
Sep 21, 2026
Inflation is 3.4%. Inflation is also 2.4%. Both are correct.
The Federal Reserve watches one of these numbers and you pay the other. The gap between them in August was almost entirely the price of energy.
Sep 21, 2026
How to read a Federal Reserve statement
The September 16 statement is a few hundred words long and every one of them was negotiated. Here is what the phrasing tells you that the rate decision does not.
Sep 21, 2026
Oil at $107 is the reason your inflation number has not fallen
West Texas Intermediate was $107.02 a barrel on September 15. Gasoline is up 27.4% over twelve months, and that one component is the whole gap between headline and core inflation.
Sep 21, 2026
The Fed sets 4%. The bond market says 5%. The gap is the interesting part.
The 10-year Treasury yielded 5.00% on September 15, above the federal funds target the Fed set the following day. That is not how the textbook draws it.
Sep 21, 2026
Every number on this page has a date. Here they all are.
A tour of the September 2026 data — what was measured, when it was published, and how old each figure is by the time it reaches you.
Aug 17, 2026
The economy is sending two signals at once. The Fed is listening to the louder one.
Payrolls fell. Retail sales fell. Inflation held at 3.4%. And three Federal Reserve officials voted to raise interest rates. Here is how those facts fit together.
Aug 17, 2026
Why small caps hit a record on the day the S&P 500 fell
On Friday, August 14, 2026, the Russell 2000 closed at an all-time high while the three big indices finished lower. The explanation is not that investors turned bullish on small companies.
Aug 17, 2026
What a $5.45 trillion price tag actually assumes about NVIDIA
The most common argument about NVIDIA is whether it is expensive. That is the wrong question. Here is the arithmetic of what the market was paying for on August 15, 2026 — with every assumption disclosed.
Aug 17, 2026
Before you buy NVIDIA: what to check in the earnings report
Written nine days before NVIDIA's second-quarter results, this is what an investor should understand about the business — and what an earnings report can and cannot tell you, whichever quarter it is.
Aug 16, 2026
Everyone agrees earnings are booming. Here is the strongest case that they aren't.
S&P 500 companies grew earnings more than 50% in the second quarter of 2026 and 86% beat expectations. Both facts are true. Neither means what the headline suggests.
Aug 16, 2026
24.6%
Inflation is 3.4%. Gasoline is up 24.6% over the same twelve months. That gap explains almost every argument about the economy in the summer of 2026.
Aug 16, 2026
$10,000 a year ago: bitcoin, gold, and the part return charts never show
One of these turned $10,000 into $13,115. The other turned it into $5,310. The interesting question is not which — it's what you would have had to endure to still be holding.
Aug 15, 2026
Market Autopsy: how Silicon Valley Bank died in 44 hours
A bank with $200bn in assets failed in less than two days. The cause was not fraud, and it was not a bad loan book. It was a duration mismatch, a badly sequenced announcement, and a group chat.
Aug 16, 2026
Why your mortgage rate does not follow the Fed's rate
The Fed sets an overnight rate. Your mortgage is priced off a ten-year bond plus a spread, and the two move for different reasons. The gap is why a Fed decision does not land on your housing payment.
Aug 15, 2026
What 3.4% inflation actually does to money sitting in a savings account
The arithmetic is simple, rarely done, and slightly uncomfortable. Here it is, with every assumption shown.
Sep 14, 2026
$10,000 in NVIDIA in 2014 is $5.4 million. The interesting number is the $523,236 you had to watch disappear.
The return is the least useful fact about this trade. What decided whether you collected it was a ten-month stretch in 2022 when your position fell by 63% — and you were still up thirtyfold while it happened.
Sep 23, 2026
The SEC cleared tokenized stocks for trading. Read the conditions.
On September 17 the Commission granted five-year, conditional relief from the definition of an exchange. It is not a rule, it is not permanent, and the conditions attached to it are the whole story.
Sep 23, 2026
Should you pay down your mortgage or invest? Here is the arithmetic.
A 6.95% mortgage is the only guaranteed 6.95% return most households can buy. Every risk-free alternative on offer in September 2026 pays less than that. Four assumptions decide the rest.
Sep 23, 2026
Retail sales rose 1.2% in August — before adjusting for prices
The Census Bureau does not take inflation out of this number and says so in the release. Once you do, the consumer looks steady rather than strong — and one category tells you people bought less of something while spending more on it.
Sep 23, 2026
How to check whether a financial number you just read is still true
Every economic figure has two dates, a publisher, a revision history and an error bar. Four of those five are usually missing from the article you read it in. Here is how to find them in about a minute.