Mortgage rate holds at 7.40% while the 10-year yield slips to 5.19%
Freddie Mac's October 15, 2026 survey left the 30-year fixed at 7.40% for a second week while the 10-year Treasury yield fell nine basis points.
- What happened
- Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey released on October 15, 2026 put the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.40%, unchanged from the week of October 8 and up from 6.27% a year earlier. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.71%, down from 6.73%. The 10-year Treasury yield was 5.19% on October 14, 2026, down from 5.28% on October 7.
- Why
- A 30-year mortgage is priced as the 10-year Treasury yield plus a spread. The yield fell 0.09 points across the survey window and the rate did not move, so the spread widened from 2.12 to 2.21 percentage points, the widest of the seven weeks in the table below.
- The numbers that matter
- 7.40%30-year fixed, PMMS week of October 15, 2026, unchanged on the week6.27%30-year fixed a year earlier, PMMS week of October 16, 20255.19%10-year Treasury yield, October 14, 2026 (FRED DGS10)$2,769.52Principal and interest on a $400,000 loan at 7.40%, 360 payments
- Why it matters
- On a $400,000 loan the payment is the same as a week earlier and $301.44 a month more than at the year-earlier rate of 6.27% (from unrounded payments): $3,617.34 a year, $108,520 over 360 payments.
- What happens nextas we saw it on 16 Oct 2026
- FRED lists the next MORTGAGE30US release for Thursday, October 22, 2026. Freddie Mac publishes the survey at noon Eastern.
Six weekly rises ended on October 15, 2026, when the 30-year rate held at 7.40%, still the highest reading of 2026.
| Sep 10 | 6.8% |
|---|---|
| Sep 17 | 7.0% |
| Sep 24 | 7.0% |
| Oct 1 | 7.3% |
| Oct 8 | 7.4% |
| Oct 15 | 7.4% |
The 30-year mortgage rate did not move in the week of October 15, 2026. That is the first time since the survey of August 27, 2026 that Freddie Mac's weekly figure has failed to rise, and it happened in a week when the 10-year Treasury yield, the rate it is built on, fell from 5.28% to 5.19%. The yield went down; the mortgage rate stayed put. The gap between them is the story.
The October 8 piece covered the six-week climb to 7.40% and how the survey is built. This one reports the October 15 figures, the Treasury market underneath them and the arithmetic on a $400,000 loan.
What Freddie Mac published on October 15
Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, released on October 15, 2026 under the headline “Mortgage Rates Hold Steady at 7.40%”, put the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 7.40%, the same as in the week of October 8. A year earlier, in the survey of October 16, 2025, it was 6.27%. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.71%, down from 6.73% a week earlier and up from 5.52% a year earlier. The survey's 2026 archive shows 7.40% as the year's high, reached on October 8 and matched on October 15; the low was 5.98% in the week of February 26, 2026.
| Week (published) | 30-year fixed | Weekly change | 15-year fixed | Weekly change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 3 | 6.71% | +0.05 | 6.04% | +0.06 |
| Sep 10 | 6.76% | +0.05 | 6.09% | +0.05 |
| Sep 17 | 6.95% | +0.19 | 6.26% | +0.17 |
| Sep 24 | 7.03% | +0.08 | 6.42% | +0.16 |
| Oct 1 | 7.28% | +0.25 | 6.60% | +0.18 |
| Oct 8 | 7.40% | +0.12 | 6.73% | +0.13 |
| Oct 15 | 7.40% | 0.00 | 6.71% | −0.02 |
Week on week: 7.40% − 7.40% = 0.00 points. Year on year: 7.40% − 6.27% = +1.13 points. Five weeks, from the survey of September 10: 7.40% − 6.76% = +0.64 points. For the 15-year: −0.02 on the week, +1.19 on the year (6.71% − 5.52%). The year-ago comparisons are the figures Freddie Mac prints in its October 15, 2026 release; the five-week change uses the archive.
The figure describes applications submitted between October 8 and October 14, 2026 through Freddie Mac's Loan Product Advisor system, for a conventional, conforming purchase loan with 20% down and excellent credit. It is a note rate, without points or fees, and it is an average of a week that had already ended when it was published. The September 2026 CPI, released on October 14, fell on the last day of that window.
The Treasury yield fell and the rate did not
The 30-year mortgage is priced off the 10-year Treasury because most mortgages are repaid or refinanced within a decade, and the investors who buy mortgage bonds compare them with Treasuries of similar life. The spread piece explains why the gap exists and what normally sits inside it; the glossary entry on the yield curve covers the Treasury side.
The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis's FRED series DGS10, which carries the Treasury's daily 10-year constant-maturity yield, shows 5.22% on October 8, 5.24% on October 9, 5.21% on October 13 and 5.19% on October 14, 2026, the last day of the survey window. The Treasury's own daily par yield curve gives 5.28% on October 7, the close of the previous window, and 5.10% on October 15, the day the survey was published. A year earlier, on October 15, 2025, the 10-year was 4.05%.
Subtracting the 10-year yield on the Wednesday that closes each survey window from that week's 30-year rate: October 8 survey, 7.40% − 5.28% (October 7) = 2.12 points. October 15 survey, 7.40% − 5.19% (October 14) = 2.21 points. For comparison, the September 17 survey gave 6.95% − 5.01% (September 16) = 1.94. Averaging the yield over the four trading days of the October 8–14 window (5.22, 5.24, 5.21, 5.19) gives 5.215%, a spread of 2.19 points, so the choice of day moves the result by 0.02. A year earlier the spread was 6.27% − 4.05% = 2.22 points, almost identical to the October 14 figure, on a yield 1.14 points lower.
The survey averages applications across a week, and lenders set their rate sheets off the bond market with a delay of a day or two. The 10-year fell most on October 14 and 15. A rate that did not respond to a nine-basis-point decline inside its own window is consistent with that lag; it is also consistent with lenders holding margins after a five-week rise. These figures cannot distinguish the two. What they do show is that the entire 1.13-point rise in the mortgage rate over the year to October 15, 2026 is accounted for by the Treasury yield (+1.14 points), with the spread essentially unchanged at 2.21 against 2.22.
The arithmetic on a $400,000 loan
The monthly payment on a fixed-rate mortgage is the standard amortization formula: payment = L × i ÷ (1 − (1 + i)^−n), where L is the loan amount, i the annual rate divided by 12, and n the number of monthly payments. For a $400,000 loan at 7.40% over 30 years, i = 0.074 ÷ 12 = 0.0061667 and n = 360. Every figure in the table is that formula with the stated inputs. None includes property tax, insurance or mortgage insurance, and $400,000 is a round figure chosen for the arithmetic, not a median price.
| Survey week | Term | Rate | Monthly P&I | Per $100,000 | Interest over the loan |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2025 | 30-year | 6.27% | $2,468.07 | $617.02 | $488,507 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | 30-year | 6.76% | $2,597.05 | $649.26 | $534,939 |
| Oct 8, 2026 | 30-year | 7.40% | $2,769.52 | $692.38 | $597,027 |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 30-year | 7.40% | $2,769.52 | $692.38 | $597,027 |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 15-year | 5.52% | $3,272.58 | $818.15 | $189,065 |
| Oct 8, 2026 | 15-year | 6.73% | $3,535.20 | $883.80 | $236,337 |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 15-year | 6.71% | $3,530.77 | $882.69 | $235,539 |
At 7.40% the 30-year payment on $400,000 is $2,769.52, identical to the week of October 8 because the rate is identical. At the year-earlier rate of 6.27% it was $2,468.07. The difference is $301.44 a month, $3,617.34 a year and $108,520 over 360 payments. Against the September 10 rate of 6.76% the difference is $172.47 a month. Per $100,000 borrowed, the year's rise from 6.27% to 7.40% costs $75.36 a month.
The 0.02-point fall in the 15-year rate trims the payment on $400,000 from $3,535.20 to $3,530.77, a saving of $4.43 a month, or $797 over 180 payments. The 15-year payment is $761.25 above the 30-year payment at 7.40%, and total interest is $235,539 against $597,027, a difference of $361,488. The 15-year costs less in total and more each month; which one a household can carry depends on cash flow, not on the rate.
In the first month at 7.40%, $2,466.67 of the $2,769.52 payment is interest (400,000 × 0.074 ÷ 12) and $302.85 is principal. At 6.27% the first payment of $2,468.07 split into $2,090.00 of interest and $378.07 of principal. The borrower at the October 2026 rate pays $301.44 more and reduces the balance by $75.22 less. The glossary entry on mortgages explains the shift in that split over the life of the loan.
What it means for your money
An unchanged weekly rate is not a non-event for a household in the middle of a purchase. The survey is a lagging average; the Treasury market it follows fell 0.18 points between October 7 and October 15, 2026, and lenders price off that market on the day, not off the Thursday figure.
- Buyers quoted in the week of October 15 are being priced off a 10-year yield of 5.10% to 5.19%, not off the 5.28% that stood behind the October 8 survey. Whether that shows up in a lower quote depends on the lender's spread, which the survey cannot see.
- Buyers with a rate lock from the week of September 10 at 6.76% hold something worth $172.47 a month on a $400,000 loan. Locks expire; the date on the lock matters more than the rate.
- Existing fixed-rate borrowers are unaffected. A loan taken at 6.27% in October 2025 costs the same $2,468.07 a month as on day one. The rise in new-loan rates changes the cost of moving, not of staying.
- Anyone weighing 15 against 30 years is comparing $761.25 a month against $361,488 of lifetime interest. Pay down the mortgage or invest sets out how to compare the two.
- Renters see the same arithmetic from the other side. The rent-versus-buy entry has the comparison, and the affordability piece applies it to the Census median new home.
FRED lists the next MORTGAGE30US observation for Thursday, October 22, 2026, covering applications from October 15 to October 21. The release calendar lists it.
Sources
- Mortgage Rates Hold Steady at 7.40% (news release, October 15, 2026)Freddie Mac · Oct 16, 2026 · Primary source
- Primary Mortgage Market Survey, U.S. weekly mortgage rate averages as of 10/15/2026Freddie Mac · Oct 16, 2026 · Primary source
- Primary Mortgage Market Survey, 2026 weekly results archiveFreddie Mac · Oct 16, 2026 · Primary source
- 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States (MORTGAGE30US), observation of October 15, 2026Freddie Mac via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Oct 16, 2026 · Primary source
- 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate (DGS10), observations of October 8 to October 14, 2026U.S. Department of the Treasury via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis · Oct 16, 2026 · Primary source
- Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, October 2026U.S. Department of the Treasury · Oct 16, 2026 · Primary source
- Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, October 2025U.S. Department of the Treasury · Oct 16, 2026 · Primary source
- Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, September 2026U.S. Department of the Treasury · Oct 12, 2026 · Primary source
- Mortgage Rates Average 7.40% (news release, October 8, 2026)Freddie Mac · Oct 12, 2026 · Primary source
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