Producer prices rose 1.3% in September, the most since March 2022
The September 2026 PPI, published October 15, put final demand up 1.3% on the month and 6.3% over 12 months. Energy did much of it. What reached the CPI.
◆ The Signal
30-second read
- What happened
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics published the September 2026 Producer Price Index on October 15, 2026. Final demand prices rose 1.3% on the month, seasonally adjusted, the largest monthly rise since March 2022, and 6.3% over the 12 months to September, the largest 12-month rise since December 2022.
- Why
- Final demand goods rose 2.6% in September and final demand energy rose 10.8%, with gasoline up 20.3%. Services rose 0.8%. The measure that strips out foods, energy and trade margins rose 0.5% on the month and 5.0% over 12 months.
- The numbers that matter
- +1.3%PPI final demand, September 2026, month on month+6.3%PPI final demand, 12 months to September 2026+5.0%Final demand less foods, energy and trade, 12 months+3.7%CPI all items, 12 months to September 2026
- Why it matters
- Producer prices measure what sellers receive, not what households pay. A 6.3% producer rise next to a 3.7% consumer rise is a measure of what has so far been absorbed in margins, in import prices, and in the two-thirds of the consumer basket that producers do not sell.
- What happens nextas we saw it on 16 Oct 2026
- The October 2026 PPI is scheduled for Friday, November 13, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET. The October 2026 CPI is scheduled for Tuesday, November 10, 2026.
Producer versus consumer
Producer prices for goods rose almost three times as fast as consumer prices over the year to September 2026.
| PPI final demand goods | 9.8% |
|---|---|
| PPI final demand | 6.3% |
| PPI less foods, energy, trade | 5.0% |
| PPI final demand services | 4.9% |
| CPI all items | 3.7% |
| CPI less food and energy | 2.6% |
% change, 12 months to September 2026, not seasonally adjustedSource: BLS, Producer Price Indexes September 2026, Table 1, released October 15, 2026; BLS, Consumer Price Index September 2026, released October 14, 2026
Go deeper
The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 1.3% in September 2026, seasonally adjusted. The Bureau of Labor Statistics published the figure on October 15, 2026, and described it as the largest monthly advance since March 2022, when the index rose 1.7%. Over the 12 months to September the index rose 6.3%, which the BLS called the largest 12-month increase since December 2022.
One day earlier, on October 14, the same agency had reported the Consumer Price Index for the same month: up 0.6% on the month and 3.7% over 12 months. Two indexes, one month, one agency, and a gap of 2.6 percentage points on the annual figure. The gap is information rather than a contradiction, and the second half of this piece explains why. The site's preview of the September CPI covers that release's background; it is not repeated here.
What the release says
Data
Goods rose 2.6% and services 0.8%; energy rose 10.8%
Final demand goods rose 2.6% in September, with energy up 10.8%, foods up 1.2% and goods less foods and energy up 0.3%. Final demand services rose 0.8%: trade margins rose 1.4%, transportation and warehousing 3.4%, other services 0.3%. Over 12 months, goods are up 9.8% and services 4.9%. Source: BLS, Producer Price Indexes, September 2026, released October 15, 2026.
Final demand goods rose 2.6% in September, with energy up 10.8%, foods up 1.2% and goods less foods and energy up 0.3%. Final demand services rose 0.8%: trade margins rose 1.4%, transportation and warehousing 3.4%, other services 0.3%. Over 12 months, goods are up 9.8% and services 4.9%. Source: BLS, Producer Price Indexes, September 2026, released October 15, 2026.
Data
The core measure rose 0.5% on the month and 5.0% over 12 months
Final demand less foods, energy and trade services rose 0.5% in September after 0.3% in August, and 5.0% over the 12 months to September. The broader final demand less foods and energy, which keeps trade margins in, rose 0.7% on the month and also 5.0% over 12 months.
Final demand less foods, energy and trade services rose 0.5% in September after 0.3% in August, and 5.0% over the 12 months to September. The broader final demand less foods and energy, which keeps trade margins in, rose 0.7% on the month and also 5.0% over 12 months.
| Index | Weight, Dec. 2025 | Jul. | Aug. | Sep. | 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final demand | 100.0 | +0.2% | +0.5% | +1.3% | +6.3% |
| Final demand goods | 29.0 | −0.4% | +1.1% | +2.6% | +9.8% |
| Foods | 5.5 | −1.0% | −0.3% | +1.2% | 0.0% |
| Energy | 5.1 | −1.7% | +4.5% | +10.8% | +35.4% |
| Goods less foods and energy | 18.5 | +0.2% | +0.4% | +0.3% | +5.1% |
| Final demand services | 68.3 | +0.3% | +0.2% | +0.8% | +4.9% |
| Trade services | 19.8 | −0.2% | +0.2% | +1.4% | +4.7% |
| Transportation and warehousing | 4.9 | −1.1% | +2.2% | +3.4% | +16.0% |
| Other services | 43.7 | +0.7% | 0.0% | +0.3% | +3.8% |
| Less foods, energy and trade services | 69.7 | +0.5% | +0.3% | +0.5% | +5.0% |
Source: BLS, Producer Price Indexes, September 2026, Table 1, released October 15, 2026. Monthly changes seasonally adjusted; 12-month changes unadjusted. Weights are relative importance as of December 2025, rounded here to one decimal.
The components that moved
Data
Gasoline rose 20.3% and, in the BLS's words, accounts for half the rise in goods
The release states that half of the September increase in final demand goods can be traced to gasoline, which jumped 20.3%. Diesel, jet fuel, residential electric power and crude petroleum also rose. The largest named fall was chicken eggs, down 39.7%.
The release states that half of the September increase in final demand goods can be traced to gasoline, which jumped 20.3%. Diesel, jet fuel, residential electric power and crude petroleum also rose. The largest named fall was chicken eggs, down 39.7%.
Data
Vehicle wholesaling margins rose 3.9%; fuel retailing margins fell 30.3%
Margins for machinery and vehicle wholesaling rose 3.9%; truck freight, traveler accommodation and airline passenger services also rose. Margins for automotive fuels and lubricants retailing fell 30.3%: when the wholesale price of fuel jumps, the gap between the pump price and what the station paid is squeezed before it is rebuilt.
Margins for machinery and vehicle wholesaling rose 3.9%; truck freight, traveler accommodation and airline passenger services also rose. Margins for automotive fuels and lubricants retailing fell 30.3%: when the wholesale price of fuel jumps, the gap between the pump price and what the station paid is squeezed before it is rebuilt.
Wealth Signal calculation
Goods contributed 0.75 points of the 1.3% and services 0.55 points
Using the December 2025 weights in Table 1: goods 2.6% × 29.028% = 0.75 percentage points; services 0.8% × 68.338% = 0.55 points; sum 1.30. Energy alone: 10.8% × 5.061% = 0.55 points. Our arithmetic. It understates energy because the weights predate a 35.4% rise in energy prices, so energy's share of the September basket was larger than 5.061%.
Using the December 2025 weights in Table 1: goods 2.6% × 29.028% = 0.75 percentage points; services 0.8% × 68.338% = 0.55 points; sum 1.30. Energy alone: 10.8% × 5.061% = 0.55 points. Our arithmetic. It understates energy because the weights predate a 35.4% rise in energy prices, so energy's share of the September basket was larger than 5.061%.
Further up the pipeline
The PPI also prices intermediate demand: goods and services sold to businesses as inputs rather than to final users. The release reports them by commodity type and by production stage.
Data
Unprocessed goods rose 8.4% in September and 21.5% over 12 months
Unprocessed goods for intermediate demand rose 8.4% in September and 21.5% over 12 months, led by crude petroleum, up 28.3%. Processed goods rose 2.5% and 14.1%, with diesel fuel up 21.0% and, per the release, accounting for nearly half the increase. Services for intermediate demand rose 0.9% and 6.3%.
Unprocessed goods for intermediate demand rose 8.4% in September and 21.5% over 12 months, led by crude petroleum, up 28.3%. Processed goods rose 2.5% and 14.1%, with diesel fuel up 21.0% and, per the release, accounting for nearly half the increase. Services for intermediate demand rose 0.9% and 6.3%.
Data
All four production stages rose, with stage 2 up 3.9% on the month
Stage 1 rose 2.2% in September and 13.5% over 12 months; stage 2 rose 3.9% and 13.9%; stage 3 rose 1.1% and 7.7%; stage 4, closest to final demand, rose 1.1% and 7.9%. Source: BLS, Producer Price Indexes, September 2026, released October 15, 2026.
Stage 1 rose 2.2% in September and 13.5% over 12 months; stage 2 rose 3.9% and 13.9%; stage 3 rose 1.1% and 7.7%; stage 4, closest to final demand, rose 1.1% and 7.9%. Source: BLS, Producer Price Indexes, September 2026, released October 15, 2026.
Interpretation
The pipeline is steepest at the raw-material end and flattens toward the consumer
Twelve-month changes of 21.5% for unprocessed goods, 14.1% for processed goods, 7.9% at stage 4, 6.3% for final demand and 3.7% for the CPI form a gradient. At each stage part of the input cost is passed on and part is absorbed in margins or substituted away. That is what a shock concentrated in crude oil and fuels looks like. It does not say how much of the upstream rise is still to be passed on, and the release does not claim to.
Twelve-month changes of 21.5% for unprocessed goods, 14.1% for processed goods, 7.9% at stage 4, 6.3% for final demand and 3.7% for the CPI form a gradient. At each stage part of the input cost is passed on and part is absorbed in margins or substituted away. That is what a shock concentrated in crude oil and fuels looks like. It does not say how much of the upstream rise is still to be passed on, and the release does not claim to.
How the PPI relates to the CPI, and how it does not
It is tempting to read the PPI as the CPI's future. The relationship is looser than that, for four reasons built into the indexes themselves.
- Different buyers. The PPI measures what domestic producers receive; the CPI measures what urban households pay. A tank of gasoline in the CPI includes the retailer's margin and fuel taxes; in the PPI it is the refiner's price. In September PPI gasoline rose 20.3% and CPI gasoline 9.1%, partly because the PPI fuel retailing margin fell 30.3%.
- Different baskets. Shelter is the largest item in the CPI and has no PPI counterpart. Imported consumer goods are in the CPI and not in the PPI, which covers domestic production. Capital goods and government purchases are in the PPI and not in the CPI.
- Trade services are margins, not prices. The PPI trade indexes measure the gap between what wholesalers and retailers sell for and what they paid. A falling one, as for fuel retailing in September, can coincide with sharply higher pump prices.
- Timing. Where costs do pass through, contracts, inventories and pricing cycles sit in between. The intermediate demand stages exist because inputs bought in one month are sold in another.
Data
The September CPI: up 0.6% on the month and 3.7% over 12 months, core 2.6%
The BLS Consumer Price Index for September 2026, released October 14, 2026, showed all items up 0.6% on the month and 3.7% over 12 months; all items less food and energy up 0.3% and 2.6%; energy up 5.2% and 20.4%; gasoline up 9.1% and 34.2%; food flat on the month and up 2.5%; shelter up 0.4% and 3.2%. The August CPI, released September 11, had shown 3.4% and core 2.4%.
The BLS Consumer Price Index for September 2026, released October 14, 2026, showed all items up 0.6% on the month and 3.7% over 12 months; all items less food and energy up 0.3% and 2.6%; energy up 5.2% and 20.4%; gasoline up 9.1% and 34.2%; food flat on the month and up 2.5%; shelter up 0.4% and 3.2%. The August CPI, released September 11, had shown 3.4% and core 2.4%.
Wealth Signal calculation
The producer-consumer gap is 2.6 points on the headline and 2.4 points on the core
PPI final demand 6.3% minus CPI all items 3.7% = 2.6 percentage points. PPI final demand less foods, energy and trade services 5.0% minus CPI less food and energy 2.6% = 2.4 points. On energy: PPI final demand energy 35.4% minus CPI energy 20.4% = 15.0 points over 12 months. Our arithmetic from the two releases.
PPI final demand 6.3% minus CPI all items 3.7% = 2.6 percentage points. PPI final demand less foods, energy and trade services 5.0% minus CPI less food and energy 2.6% = 2.4 points. On energy: PPI final demand energy 35.4% minus CPI energy 20.4% = 15.0 points over 12 months. Our arithmetic from the two releases.
Interpretation
The core gap is the one to watch, because it cannot be blamed on fuel
A wide headline gap during an oil shock is expected. A 2.4-point gap on the core measures, with energy removed from both, is harder to explain. Part is the CPI's shelter weight, which has no producer counterpart and rose a comparatively modest 3.2%. Part is the import share of consumer goods. Whether the remainder is cost absorbed or cost yet to be passed on is not something either release can answer, and we do not pretend to. See core versus headline for how the CPI's own core is built.
A wide headline gap during an oil shock is expected. A 2.4-point gap on the core measures, with energy removed from both, is harder to explain. Part is the CPI's shelter weight, which has no producer counterpart and rose a comparatively modest 3.2%. Part is the import share of consumer goods. Whether the remainder is cost absorbed or cost yet to be passed on is not something either release can answer, and we do not pretend to. See core versus headline for how the CPI's own core is built.
What it means for your money
A household does not buy at producer prices, so the direct effect of the PPI on a budget is nil. The indirect effects run through three channels.
- Fuel. CPI gasoline rose 34.2% over the year to September. A household that spent 150 dollars a month on gasoline in September 2025 and bought the same quantity paid 150 × 1.342 = 201.30 dollars in September 2026: 51.30 dollars more a month, 615.60 a year. The PPI gasoline rise of 20.3% is the input cost behind that figure, not a second cost on top of it.
- Everything delivered. PPI transportation and warehousing rose 16.0% over 12 months and truck freight was named as a riser at every intermediate stage. Whether that reaches shelf prices depends on margins, and the trade services index, up 4.7% over 12 months, says margins overall have widened rather than absorbed.
- Rates. The Federal Open Market Committee raised the target range to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, 2026, by a 12–0 vote; the 10-year Treasury yield was 5.00% on September 15 and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate 6.95% in the week of September 17. A producer price release sets none of those. It is one input to the people who do.
Both indexes describe September and both were published in the week of October 12. The October PPI is scheduled for Friday, November 13, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET, and the October CPI for Tuesday, November 10, 2026.
This piece reports the September 2026 PPI and CPI as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on October 15 and October 14, 2026, and arithmetic derived from them. It does not claim that producer prices lead consumer prices by any fixed interval or amount, does not estimate how much of the upstream rise is still to be passed on, and does not predict the October figures. The BLS states that PPI data for May through August 2026 were revised in this release, and the September figures are preliminary.
Sources
- Producer Price Indexes - September 2026 (news release)Bureau of Labor Statistics · Oct 16, 2026 · Primary source
- Producer Price Indexes - September 2026, Table 1: Producer price index percent changes and weights for Final Demand - Intermediate Demand groupingsBureau of Labor Statistics · Oct 16, 2026 · Primary source
- Schedule of Releases for the Producer Price IndexBureau of Labor Statistics · Oct 16, 2026 · Primary source
- Consumer Price Index - September 2026 (news release)Bureau of Labor Statistics · Oct 16, 2026 · Primary source
- Consumer Price Index Summary — August 2026U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Sep 11, 2026 · Primary source
- FOMC statement, September 16, 2026Federal Reserve Board · Sep 16, 2026 · Primary source
- 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate (DGS10), observation of September 15, 2026U.S. Department of the Treasury via FRED · Sep 15, 2026 · Primary source
- Primary Mortgage Market Survey, week of September 17, 2026Freddie Mac · Sep 17, 2026 · Primary source
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