The October 27–28 FOMC: three documents, one vote, no dot plot
What the Fed publishes on October 28, 2026, what a 25bp move does to IORB, ON RRP and prime, and the data in hand. A mechanics piece, not a forecast.
- What happened
- The Federal Open Market Committee meets on Tuesday–Wednesday, October 27–28, 2026. It is one of the four 2026 meetings with no Summary of Economic Projections. The target range going in is 3.75%–4.00%, set by a 12–0 vote on September 16, 2026, with interest on reserve balances at 3.90% from September 17.
- Why
- The FOMC does not set a single rate. It votes a target range and the Board sets three administered rates (IORB, ON RRP, discount) that pin market rates inside it. On September 16, 2026 all four moved by exactly 0.25 percentage point together.
- The numbers that matter
- 3.75%–4.00%Federal funds target range, set September 16, 2026, effective September 173.90%Interest on reserve balances (IORB) rate, effective September 17, 20264.1%Median September 2026 SEP projection for the funds rate at end-2026; 16 of 18 participants at or above it3.7%CPI-U, 12 months to September 2026 (BLS, October 14, 2026); core 2.6%
- Why it matters
- Each 0.25 point on the funds rate moves prime by 0.25 point the same day. On a $20,000 card balance that is $4.17 a month of interest; on a $50,000 HELOC, $10.42.
- What happens nextas we saw it on 20 Oct 2026
- Statement and implementation note on Wednesday, October 28, 2026 (the September set appeared at 2:00 p.m. ET). Minutes three weeks later, November 18, 2026. The next projections come with the December 8–9, 2026 meeting.
ON RRP marks the floor of the 3.75%–4.00% range, IORB sits 0.10 point under the ceiling, and the market rate settled at 3.88% on October 16, 2026.
| ON RRP offering rate | 3.8% |
|---|---|
| Effective federal funds rate, Oct 16 | 3.9% |
| Interest on reserve balances (IORB) | 3.9% |
| Standing repo rate | 4.0% |
| Discount rate (primary credit) | 4.0% |
The Federal Reserve does not set an interest rate on October 28, 2026. It votes a range, 0.25 percentage point wide, and then a separate body, the Board of Governors, sets three other rates that hold the market inside it. On September 16, 2026, all of those numbers moved together by exactly 0.25 point, on a 12–0 vote. That is the machine the Committee runs again on Tuesday–Wednesday, October 27–28, 2026, and this piece explains what comes out of it, not which way it turns.
One thing about this meeting is fixed in advance. The Fed's calendar lists eight meetings for 2026 and marks four with an asterisk for a Summary of Economic Projections: March, June, September and December. October 27–28 has no asterisk. There is no new dot plot on October 28; the September 16, 2026 set stands until December 9.
What the Committee has in hand
The September decision is the starting point. The statement released at 2:00 p.m. EDT on September 16, 2026 said the Committee “decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point, to 3-3/4 to 4 percent,” that “Inflation remains elevated,” and that the action “will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal.” The site read it line by line in the Fed statement piece.
The minutes, posted with “Last Update: October 07, 2026”, list the voters: Kevin Warsh, John C. Williams, Michael S. Barr, Michelle W. Bowman, Lisa D. Cook, Beth M. Hammack, Philip N. Jefferson, Neel Kashkari, Lorie K. Logan, Anna Paulson, Jerome H. Powell and Christopher J. Waller. “Voting against this action: None.” On the outlook: “most participants assessed that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate by year end,” with the caveat that “decisions at future meetings would depend on incoming information.”
Since the September 16 meeting, four federal data releases and the minutes have landed. Each is one month or one week of data, and none is a trend on its own (one month is not a trend).
| Release | Agency, date | Headline figure | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| Employment Situation, September 2026 | BLS, October 2, 2026 | +29,000 payrolls; unemployment 4.2% | July revised to −10,000, August to +133,000; two months 60,000 lower than first reported; average hourly earnings +0.1% to $37.81 |
| FOMC minutes, September 15–16 meeting | Federal Reserve, October 7, 2026 | “Most participants” expected another increase by year end | Staff projected inflation to step down over two years and reach 2% in 2029 |
| CPI-U, September 2026 | BLS, October 14, 2026 | 3.7% over 12 months; +0.6% on the month | Core 2.6% over 12 months, +0.3% on the month; energy +20.4%; gasoline +34.2% |
| Advance retail sales, September 2026 | Census Bureau, October 15, 2026 | $745.0 billion, +0.8% (±0.4) on the month | +6.3% (±0.5) from September 2025; not adjusted for prices |
| Initial jobless claims, week ending October 10, 2026 | Labor Department, October 15, 2026 | 199,000, up 1,000 | 4-week average 198,500; insured unemployment 1,710,000 for the week ending October 3 |
The September statement tied the hike to inflation that “remains elevated”; the CPI release of October 14, 2026 put the 12-month rate at 3.7%, with a +0.6% monthly rise and core at 2.6%. On the other side, payrolls rose 29,000 in September and the prior two months were revised down by a combined 60,000, with July now negative, against a statement that said “job gains have kept pace with the workforce.” How the Committee weighs those two facts is what the October 28 statement reveals, and what this piece does not guess at. Detail: September CPI, September jobs.
What is published on October 28, and what each document contains
Three documents appear on the Fed's site on the afternoon of October 28, 2026. In September they were posted at 2:00 p.m. EDT. A fourth, the minutes, follows on a fixed lag.
- The statement. It describes activity, the labor market and inflation, states the decision on the target range in one sentence, and ends with the vote. The September statement was approved 12–0 and said the Committee “is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.” A dissent, if any, is named here.
- The implementation note. This is where the money moves. It records the Board's vote on the interest on reserve balances rate, the FOMC's directive to the New York Fed's trading desk (target range, standing repo rate, ON RRP rate and its per-counterparty limit, reinvestment instructions), and the Board's action on the discount rate, taken on requests from individual Reserve Banks.
- The press conference. The Fed's September 15–16 meeting page lists one alongside the statement. Nothing said in it changes the numbers in the first two documents.
- The minutes. The calendar page says “The minutes of regularly scheduled meetings are released three weeks after the date of the policy decision.” Three weeks after October 28, 2026 is Wednesday, November 18, 2026. They carry the count language (“most”, “several”, “a few”) and the named vote.
The note, effective September 17, 2026, raised IORB to 3.90%, directed the Desk to keep the funds rate in 3.75%–4.00%, set the standing overnight repo rate at 4.00%, set the ON RRP offering rate at 3.75% with a limit of $160 billion per counterparty per day, and raised the primary credit (discount) rate to 4.00% on requests from seven Reserve Banks. The July 29, 2026 note had the same five items at 3.65%, 3.50%–3.75%, 3.75%, 3.50% and 3.75%. Every entry moved by the same 0.25 point.
How a 0.25 point move travels: IORB, ON RRP, prime
The range is enforced, not announced. A Board staff note of July 1, 2020 on the ample-reserves framework explains the two legs. On the bank side, “banks have little or no incentive to lend their reserves to other banks at rates lower than the IOR rate,” so IORB “acts as a reservation rate.” On the non-bank side, money funds and others that can lend to the Fed through the ON RRP facility “have little incentive to lend cash to others at a lower rate,” which puts “a floor under the various overnight market rates.” When the FOMC changes the range, the Fed “implements that change in markets by also adjusting the settings of its key administered rates.” Background: how the Fed works, interest rates.
The Fed's H.15 release of October 19, 2026 gives the effective federal funds rate for October 16 as 3.88%, the primary credit rate as 4.00%, the bank prime loan rate as 7.00%, and the 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield as 5.09%. The 3.88% is 0.13 point above the ON RRP floor and 0.02 point under IORB.
H.15 defines the bank prime loan rate as the “Rate posted by a majority of top 25 (by assets in domestic offices) insured U.S.-chartered commercial banks.” It is a bank-set rate, not a Fed rate. The October 16, 2026 reading of 7.00% is exactly 3.00 points above the 4.00% ceiling set on September 16. If the range moves by 0.25 point on October 28 and the banks keep that spread, prime becomes 7.25% on a rise or 6.75% on a cut; if the range is unchanged, prime stays at 7.00%. This is arithmetic on a published spread, not a statement about what the banks do.
Formula: balance × 0.0025 ÷ 12. Card: $20,000 × 0.0025 = $50.00 a year, ÷ 12 = $4.17 a month. Home-equity line: $50,000 × 0.0025 = $125.00 a year, ÷ 12 = $10.42 a month. The figures hold for any balance priced as prime plus a fixed margin, because only the prime component changes. The overall card APR is far above prime (see the consumer credit piece), but the change per 0.25 point is the same $4.17 whatever the starting rate.
What the September dots said, and why there are no October dots
The projection materials of September 16, 2026 give a median of 4.1% for 2026, 4.1% for 2027, 3.9% for 2028 and 3.2% in the longer run. The 2026 central tendency is 4.1%–4.4% and the full range is 3.9%–4.4%. The dot distribution for end-2026: 4 participants at 4.375%, 12 at 4.125%, 2 at 3.875%. The same table has median PCE inflation of 3.7% for 2026 and 2.3% for 2027, core PCE 3.4% and 2.5%, and unemployment 4.1% in both years.
The midpoint of 3.75%–4.00% is 3.875%. The dot level 4.125% is the midpoint of 4.00%–4.25%. Difference: 4.125% − 3.875% = 0.25 point. Two participants (at 3.875%) had the range unchanged through December; sixteen had at least one more step. Two meetings remained: October 27–28 and December 8–9.
Those dots were drawn on September 16, before the September jobs report, the September CPI and the minutes. The next set is dated December 9, 2026. See the minutes piece for the count language and the September hike piece for the decision.
What it means for your money
For a household the meeting resolves into three questions with arithmetic answers, none of which needs a view on the outcome.
- Variable-rate debt. Anything priced off prime (most credit cards, HELOCs, some small-business lines) moves by the same amount as the range, usually within a billing cycle: $4.17 a month per 0.25 point on $20,000; $10.42 on $50,000; $20.83 on $100,000.
- Cash. Money market funds lend to the Fed at the ON RRP rate, 3.75% from September 17, 2026, so their yields follow the range within days (money market funds). Bank savings and CD rates do not move automatically. The gap between the two is the number to watch after October 28.
- Fixed-rate debt. A 30-year mortgage does not reprice with the funds rate. It follows longer Treasury yields, 5.09% on the 10-year on October 16, 2026, which already embed whatever the market expects (mortgage rates).
The Fed dates sit against the week's data releases on the site's calendar and the week's figures.
Sources
- Meeting calendars and information (FOMC)Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · Oct 20, 2026 · Primary source
- Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement, September 16, 2026Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · Oct 20, 2026 · Primary source
- Implementation Note issued September 16, 2026Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · Oct 20, 2026 · Primary source
- Implementation Note issued July 29, 2026Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · Oct 20, 2026 · Primary source
- Summary of Economic Projections, September 16, 2026 (FOMC projections materials)Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · Oct 20, 2026 · Primary source
- Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 15–16, 2026 (released October 7, 2026)Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · Oct 20, 2026 · Primary source
- H.15 Selected Interest Rates (Daily), release of October 19, 2026Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · Oct 20, 2026 · Primary source
- Implementing Monetary Policy in an “Ample-Reserves” Regime: The Basics (Note 1 of 3), FEDS Notes, July 1, 2020Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · Oct 20, 2026 · Primary source
- The Employment Situation — September 2026 (released October 2, 2026)Bureau of Labor Statistics · Oct 20, 2026 · Primary source
- Consumer Price Index — September 2026 (released October 14, 2026)Bureau of Labor Statistics · Oct 20, 2026 · Primary source
- Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, September 2026 (released October 15, 2026)U.S. Census Bureau · Oct 20, 2026 · Primary source
- Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims, news release of October 15, 2026U.S. Department of Labor · Oct 20, 2026 · Primary source
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