Home completions fell 27.1% in a year; starts held at 1,275,000
Census: August 2026 completions ran 1,128,000 a year, 27.1% below August 2025, while starts were 1,275,000. The September report was due October 20, 2026.
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- What happened
- Privately owned housing starts ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,275,000 in August 2026, 2.6% (±12.0%) below July and 1.2% (±10.8%) below August 2025, according to the Census Bureau and HUD report of September 17, 2026. Completions were 1,128,000, 27.1% (±8.9%) below a year earlier. The September 2026 report was scheduled for 8:30 a.m. EDT on October 20, 2026.
- Why
- Starts, permits and completions are three points on one pipeline. Permits (1,394,000) still exceed starts (1,275,000), and starts exceed completions (1,128,000), so the stock of units under construction, 1,271,000 at the end of August 2026, is being drawn down more slowly than a year earlier. Single-family starts rose while five-plus-unit starts fell.
- The numbers that matter
- 1,275,000Housing starts, SAAR, August 2026 (Census/HUD, Sept 17, 2026)1,394,000Building permits, SAAR, August 2026; 3.5% above August 20251,128,000Completions, SAAR, August 2026; −27.1% (±8.9%) from August 202572.0%Single-family share of starts, August 2026 (calculation: 918,000 ÷ 1,275,000)
- Why it matters
- Fewer completions means fewer finished homes reaching the market in a year when the 30-year mortgage rate went from 6.67% in August 2026 to 7.40% by October 15, 2026.
- What happens nextas we saw it on 20 Oct 2026
- The Census Bureau scheduled the September 2026 New Residential Construction report for 8:30 a.m. EDT on October 20, 2026, and the September New Residential Sales report for October 27, 2026. The October construction report is scheduled for November 18, 2026.
New residential construction
Permits exceeded starts by 119,000 units a year and starts exceeded completions by 147,000, so the pipeline is still filling faster than it empties.
| Building permits | 1394 |
|---|---|
| Housing starts | 1275 |
| Units under construction (end of month) | 1271 |
| Completions | 1128 |
| Completions, August 2025 | 1548 |
Thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate (under construction: units at end of August 2026)Source: U.S. Census Bureau and HUD, Monthly New Residential Construction, August 2026, released September 17, 2026
Go deeper
Builders finished homes in August 2026 at an annual rate of 1,128,000, which is 27.1% fewer than in August 2025. That is the sharpest figure in the Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development report published on September 17, 2026, and unlike most monthly moves in this release it is outside the sampling error: the stated margin is ±8.9 percentage points. Starts, by contrast, barely moved. They ran at 1,275,000 a year, 2.6% below July and 1.2% below August 2025, and both of those changes sit inside their error bands.
A note on timing. The Census Bureau's release schedule set the September 2026 report for 8:30 a.m. EDT on October 20, 2026. When this piece was prepared on the morning of October 20, 2026, the Bureau's release file still carried the August 2026 report, so the figures below are the August ones, the latest available at the time of writing. The September report lands on the same page and in the same format, and the mechanics described here apply to it unchanged.
The August 2026 numbers, with their error bands
Data
Starts: 1,275,000 a year, down 2.6% (±12.0%) on the month and 1.2% (±10.8%) on the year
The release states that privately owned housing starts in August 2026 “were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,275,000. This is 2.6 percent (±12.0 percent) below the revised July estimate of 1,309,000 and is 1.2 percent (±10.8 percent) below the August 2025 rate of 1,291,000.” Single-family starts were 918,000, 7.6% (±14.0%) above the revised July figure of 853,000. Starts of units in buildings with five units or more were 344,000. Every one of the starts changes carries an asterisk in the release, meaning the interval includes zero and the Bureau does not consider the change statistically different from no change.
The release states that privately owned housing starts in August 2026 “were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,275,000. This is 2.6 percent (±12.0 percent) below the revised July estimate of 1,309,000 and is 1.2 percent (±10.8 percent) below the August 2025 rate of 1,291,000.” Single-family starts were 918,000, 7.6% (±14.0%) above the revised July figure of 853,000. Starts of units in buildings with five units or more were 344,000. Every one of the starts changes carries an asterisk in the release, meaning the interval includes zero and the Bureau does not consider the change statistically different from no change.
Data
Permits: 1,394,000, down 2.7% on the month and up 3.5% on the year
Units authorized by building permits ran at 1,394,000 a year in August 2026, 2.7% below the revised July rate of 1,433,000 and 3.5% above the August 2025 rate of 1,347,000. Single-family authorizations were 878,000, 1.8% below July's revised 894,000. Permits for buildings with five or more units were 467,000. The permit figures come from a cut-off sample of permit offices rather than a probability sample, and the release prints no sampling error for them.
Units authorized by building permits ran at 1,394,000 a year in August 2026, 2.7% below the revised July rate of 1,433,000 and 3.5% above the August 2025 rate of 1,347,000. Single-family authorizations were 878,000, 1.8% below July's revised 894,000. Permits for buildings with five or more units were 467,000. The permit figures come from a cut-off sample of permit offices rather than a probability sample, and the release prints no sampling error for them.
Data
Completions: 1,128,000, down 11.9% (±9.7%) on the month and 27.1% (±8.9%) on the year
Completions were 11.9% below the revised July estimate of 1,280,000 and 27.1% below the August 2025 rate of 1,548,000. Single-family completions were 816,000, 10.4% (±9.3%) below July's revised 911,000. Completions of units in buildings with five units or more were 302,000, against 470,000 in August 2025. Both the monthly and annual declines are larger than their error bands, which is uncommon in this report.
Completions were 11.9% below the revised July estimate of 1,280,000 and 27.1% below the August 2025 rate of 1,548,000. Single-family completions were 816,000, 10.4% (±9.3%) below July's revised 911,000. Completions of units in buildings with five units or more were 302,000, against 470,000 in August 2025. Both the monthly and annual declines are larger than their error bands, which is uncommon in this report.
| Measure | Aug 2026 (p) | Jul 2026 (r) | Aug 2025 | Change on year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Building permits, total | 1,394 | 1,433 | 1,347 | +3.5% |
| Permits, single-family | 878 | 894 | 867 | +1.3% |
| Permits, 5 units or more | 467 | 482 | 427 | +9.4% |
| Housing starts, total | 1,275 | 1,309 | 1,291 | −1.2% (±10.8%) |
| Starts, single-family | 918 | 853 | 873 | +5.2% |
| Starts, 5 units or more | 344 | 444 | 407 | −15.5% |
| Completions, total | 1,128 | 1,280 | 1,548 | −27.1% (±8.9%) |
| Completions, single-family | 816 | 911 | 1,059 | −22.9% |
| Under construction, end of month | 1,271 | 1,267 | 1,313 | −3.2% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and HUD, Monthly New Residential Construction, August 2026, Tables 1a, 3a, 4a and 5a, released September 17, 2026. (p) preliminary, (r) revised. Percent changes without a ± are calculated from the table and the release prints no sampling error for them.
Two revisions are worth noticing because they change the story. July starts were first reported in August and are now 1,309,000 after revision; July completions are now 1,280,000. The Census Bureau revises each month twice more after its first print, which is why revisions matter more in this release than the preliminary headline.
Single-family up, five-plus down: the mix is shifting
Wealth Signal calculation
Single-family starts were 72.0% of all starts in August 2026, up from 65.2% in July and 67.6% a year earlier
918,000 ÷ 1,275,000 = 72.0%. July 2026: 853,000 ÷ 1,309,000 = 65.2%. August 2025: 873,000 ÷ 1,291,000 = 67.6%. The move is driven by both ends: single-family starts were 5.2% higher than a year earlier (918,000 against 873,000) while starts in buildings of five or more units were 15.5% lower (344,000 against 407,000) and 22.5% below July's 444,000. The multifamily series is the more volatile of the two, and the release does not publish a separate error band for it, so a one-month swing of that size should be read with care.
918,000 ÷ 1,275,000 = 72.0%. July 2026: 853,000 ÷ 1,309,000 = 65.2%. August 2025: 873,000 ÷ 1,291,000 = 67.6%. The move is driven by both ends: single-family starts were 5.2% higher than a year earlier (918,000 against 873,000) while starts in buildings of five or more units were 15.5% lower (344,000 against 407,000) and 22.5% below July's 444,000. The multifamily series is the more volatile of the two, and the release does not publish a separate error band for it, so a one-month swing of that size should be read with care.
Data
Permits point the other way for apartments: five-plus authorizations were 9.4% above a year earlier
Permits for buildings with five or more units were 467,000 in August 2026, against 427,000 in August 2025. Single-family permits were 878,000, 1.3% above the 867,000 of a year earlier. A permit precedes a start, usually by weeks for a house and by months for an apartment building, so permits say more about intent than about activity. The release also reports 280,000 units authorized but not yet started at the end of August 2026, 148,000 of them single-family.
Permits for buildings with five or more units were 467,000 in August 2026, against 427,000 in August 2025. Single-family permits were 878,000, 1.3% above the 867,000 of a year earlier. A permit precedes a start, usually by weeks for a house and by months for an apartment building, so permits say more about intent than about activity. The release also reports 280,000 units authorized but not yet started at the end of August 2026, 148,000 of them single-family.
The pipeline: more going in than coming out
The three headline series are stages of one process. A permit is issued; a start is recorded when excavation begins; a completion is recorded when the unit is ready to occupy. Between start and completion the unit sits in the under-construction count. That count fell during the year to August 2026, but slowly.
Wealth Signal calculation
Completions ran at 88.5% of starts in August 2026; a year earlier they ran at 119.9%
August 2026: 1,128,000 ÷ 1,275,000 = 0.885. August 2025: 1,548,000 ÷ 1,291,000 = 1.199. In August 2025 builders were finishing far more units than they were starting, which drew the under-construction stock down. In August 2026 starts exceeded completions by 147,000 units a year, so the stock stopped falling: units under construction were 1,271,000 at the end of August 2026, up from 1,267,000 at the end of July and 42,000 (3.2%) below the 1,313,000 of August 2025. Of the 1,271,000, 589,000 were single-family and 666,000 were in buildings of five or more units.
August 2026: 1,128,000 ÷ 1,275,000 = 0.885. August 2025: 1,548,000 ÷ 1,291,000 = 1.199. In August 2025 builders were finishing far more units than they were starting, which drew the under-construction stock down. In August 2026 starts exceeded completions by 147,000 units a year, so the stock stopped falling: units under construction were 1,271,000 at the end of August 2026, up from 1,267,000 at the end of July and 42,000 (3.2%) below the 1,313,000 of August 2025. Of the 1,271,000, 589,000 were single-family and 666,000 were in buildings of five or more units.
Wealth Signal calculation
Starts per 1,000 households: 9.5 in August 2026
The Census Bureau's Housing Vacancies and Homeownership release for the second quarter of 2026, published July 28, 2026, counts 133,811,000 occupied housing units, which is the household count. 1,275,000 ÷ 133,811,000 × 1,000 = 9.5 starts per 1,000 households at the August 2026 annual rate. The same release puts total housing units at 149,454,000, the homeownership rate at 65.0% and the rental vacancy rate at 7.3%.
The Census Bureau's Housing Vacancies and Homeownership release for the second quarter of 2026, published July 28, 2026, counts 133,811,000 occupied housing units, which is the household count. 1,275,000 ÷ 133,811,000 × 1,000 = 9.5 starts per 1,000 households at the August 2026 annual rate. The same release puts total housing units at 149,454,000, the homeownership rate at 65.0% and the rental vacancy rate at 7.3%.
Data
Year to date, starts are 0.9% below 2025 and completions 12.9% below
On a not seasonally adjusted basis, 925,100 units were started in January through August 2026 against 933,900 in the same months of 2025, a decline of 0.9%. Completions were 865,200 against 993,600, a decline of 12.9%. Permits were 969,100 against 970,100, a decline of 0.1%. The year-to-date figures smooth out the month-to-month noise that the ±12.0% error band on starts describes.
On a not seasonally adjusted basis, 925,100 units were started in January through August 2026 against 933,900 in the same months of 2025, a decline of 0.9%. Completions were 865,200 against 993,600, a decline of 12.9%. Permits were 969,100 against 970,100, a decline of 0.1%. The year-to-date figures smooth out the month-to-month noise that the ±12.0% error band on starts describes.
Where the homes are being started
| Region | Aug 2026 (p) | Jul 2026 (r) | Jun 2026 (r) | Change, Jul to Aug |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 1,275 | 1,309 | 1,439 | −2.6% (±12.0%) |
| Northeast | 96 | 173 | 127 | −44.5% |
| Midwest | 198 | 225 | 274 | −12.0% |
| South | 658 | 667 | 736 | −1.3% |
| West | 323 | 244 | 302 | +32.4% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau and HUD, Monthly New Residential Construction, August 2026, Table 3a, released September 17, 2026. Regional percentage changes are calculated from the table; the release's regional sampling errors are larger than the national ±12.0% and are not reproduced here.
Interpretation
The regional swings are mostly noise; the South is the number that matters
The Northeast series moved from 127,000 in June to 173,000 in July to 96,000 in August 2026. No housing market changes by 44% in a month; this is a small sample producing a small, volatile estimate. The South accounted for 658,000 of the 1,275,000 national starts, or 51.6%, and its 1.3% monthly decline is the one regional figure consistent with the national picture. Units under construction tell the same story: 561,000 of the 1,271,000 were in the South at the end of August 2026, unchanged from July.
The Northeast series moved from 127,000 in June to 173,000 in July to 96,000 in August 2026. No housing market changes by 44% in a month; this is a small sample producing a small, volatile estimate. The South accounted for 658,000 of the 1,275,000 national starts, or 51.6%, and its 1.3% monthly decline is the one regional figure consistent with the national picture. Units under construction tell the same story: 561,000 of the 1,271,000 were in the South at the end of August 2026, unchanged from July.
The rate backdrop: 6.67% in August, 7.40% by October 15
Data
Freddie Mac's 30-year rate averaged 6.67% across the four August 2026 surveys and stood at 7.40% on October 15, 2026
Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey archive shows the 30-year fixed rate at 6.69% (August 6), 6.67% (August 13), 6.65% (August 20) and 6.66% (August 27, 2026). The rate then rose every week through September, 6.71%, 6.76%, 6.95%, 7.03%, to 7.28% on October 1 and 7.40% on October 8 and October 15, 2026. Freddie Mac's year-ago comparison for the October 15, 2026 survey is 6.27%. The August starts figures therefore describe decisions made at rates roughly three-quarters of a point below those in place when the September report was due. The October 15 survey is covered in the mortgage rate piece.
Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey archive shows the 30-year fixed rate at 6.69% (August 6), 6.67% (August 13), 6.65% (August 20) and 6.66% (August 27, 2026). The rate then rose every week through September, 6.71%, 6.76%, 6.95%, 7.03%, to 7.28% on October 1 and 7.40% on October 8 and October 15, 2026. Freddie Mac's year-ago comparison for the October 15, 2026 survey is 6.27%. The August starts figures therefore describe decisions made at rates roughly three-quarters of a point below those in place when the September report was due. The October 15 survey is covered in the mortgage rate piece.
Data
New-home sales were 684,000 a year in August 2026 at a median price of $393,700
The Census Bureau's New Residential Sales report of September 24, 2026 put sales of new single-family houses in August 2026 at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 684,000, up 6.4% (±19.5%) from July and 2.0% (±15.7%) below August 2025; neither change is statistically significant. The median sales price was $393,700, 5.8% (±8.2%) below the $417,900 of August 2025. There were 483,000 new houses for sale at the end of August 2026, a supply of 8.5 months at the August sales rate. The September sales report is scheduled for October 27, 2026.
The Census Bureau's New Residential Sales report of September 24, 2026 put sales of new single-family houses in August 2026 at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 684,000, up 6.4% (±19.5%) from July and 2.0% (±15.7%) below August 2025; neither change is statistically significant. The median sales price was $393,700, 5.8% (±8.2%) below the $417,900 of August 2025. There were 483,000 new houses for sale at the end of August 2026, a supply of 8.5 months at the August sales rate. The September sales report is scheduled for October 27, 2026.
What it means for your money
Three pieces of arithmetic connect this report to a household budget. None of them is a prediction.
- The payment on a median new home moved by $155 a month between August and October 2026, with no change in price. A 20% down payment on the $393,700 August median leaves a loan of $314,960. At 6.67%, the August average, the 30-year principal-and-interest payment is $2,026.10 a month. At 7.40%, the October 15 rate, it is $2,180.72. The difference is $154.62 a month, or $1,855 a year, before taxes and insurance. How the payment formula works is covered in the glossary; the affordability piece walks through the income this payment implies.
- Completions, not starts, are what a buyer or renter can actually move into. A 27.1% drop in completions over a year means fewer finished units arriving, and the under-construction count of 1,271,000 says how many are still coming. The five-plus-unit share of that count, 666,000, is what feeds rental supply; the rental vacancy rate was 7.3% in the second quarter of 2026. The rent piece covers how new apartment supply reaches the shelter component of the CPI with a lag.
- The 8.5 months of new-home supply is a builder's problem before it is a buyer's. 483,000 finished and unfinished new houses were for sale at the end of August 2026 against sales of 684,000 a year. That ratio, and a median price 5.8% below a year earlier, is the context for the single-family starts figure: builders were starting more houses while the ones already for sale were selling for less. Existing-home prices move differently; the FHFA index piece covers that series.
For a household deciding between renting and buying, the useful figure in this report is not the headline. It is the pipeline: whether completions catch up with starts over the coming months determines how much finished supply arrives, and the Census Bureau publishes that every month. The housing market glossary entry explains how these series fit together.
This article reports the August 2026 New Residential Construction release of September 17, 2026, which was the latest report on the Census Bureau's release page when the piece was prepared on the morning of October 20, 2026. It does not claim what the September 2026 figures are; that report was scheduled for 8:30 a.m. EDT on October 20, 2026. The starts changes quoted are inside their sampling errors and the Census Bureau does not treat them as statistically significant. Regional and multifamily percentage changes are calculated from the published tables and carry larger, unquoted sampling errors. The mortgage payment figures are principal and interest only, on a 20% down payment, and are illustrations of a formula, not quotes. This is not a forecast, and nothing here is financial advice.
Sources
- Monthly New Residential Construction, August 2026 (CB26-147, released September 17, 2026)U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development · Oct 20, 2026 · Primary source
- New Residential Construction Press Release (current release page, August 2026)U.S. Census Bureau · Oct 20, 2026 · Primary source
- Release Schedule: New Residential Construction and New Residential SalesU.S. Census Bureau · Oct 20, 2026 · Primary source
- Monthly New Residential Sales, August 2026 (CB26-155, released September 24, 2026)U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development · Oct 20, 2026 · Primary source
- Quarterly Residential Vacancies and Homeownership, Second Quarter 2026 (CB26-116, released July 28, 2026)U.S. Census Bureau · Oct 20, 2026 · Primary source
- Mortgage Market Survey Archive, 2026 weekly ratesFreddie Mac · Oct 20, 2026 · Primary source
- Primary Mortgage Market Survey, week of October 15, 2026Freddie Mac · Oct 20, 2026 · Primary source
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