Fed holds at 3.75–4%, 10–2, with two votes for a hike
The October 28, 2026 FOMC kept the range at 3-3/4 to 4 percent; Cook and Hammack wanted a quarter point more. Next morning: GDP +3.4%, PCE inflation 3.6%.
Section
Economy
The Fed, inflation, jobs, growth and the consumer — each release explained the same way, every time.
Indicator pagesThe release template: previous, expected, actual, what changed, market reaction, why it matters, next release.
Latest
Oct 30, 2026
Oct 28, 2026
Q3 GDP lands October 29. First estimates move 0.58 points on average
BEA's advance estimate of July–September 2026 GDP is scheduled for October 29. A guide: three estimates, the annualizing formula, what is already known.
Oct 27, 2026
Fiscal 2026 deficit $1,992.5bn, up 12%; interest cost $1,051.8bn
The year-end Treasury ledger shows receipts up 3.2%, outlays up 5.5% and the deficit up $217.1bn on fiscal 2025. Interest took 19.5¢ of each receipt dollar.
Oct 20, 2026
The October 27–28 FOMC: three documents, one vote, no dot plot
What the Fed publishes on October 28, 2026, what a 25bp move does to IORB, ON RRP and prime, and the data in hand. A mechanics piece, not a forecast.
Oct 20, 2026
Inside $4.48 gasoline: $2.33 crude, 97¢ refining, 52¢ taxes
EIA's May 2026 split of a $4.479 gallon: crude 51.9%, refining 21.7%, distribution 14.8%, taxes 11.5%. The pump price was $4.331 in the week of October 12.
Oct 16, 2026
Producer prices rose 1.3% in September, the most since March 2022
The September 2026 PPI, published October 15, put final demand up 1.3% on the month and 6.3% over 12 months. Energy did much of it. What reached the CPI.
Oct 16, 2026
Jobless claims 199,000: five straight weeks under 200,000
Initial claims were 199,000 in the week ending October 10, 2026, the 4-week average 198,500, continuing claims 1,710,000. Eight weeks, every revision.
Oct 16, 2026
Retail sales rose 0.8% in September. Gas stations were 71% of it
Census put September 2026 retail and food services sales at $745.0 billion, up 6.3% on the year. Take out the 3.7% CPI and the real gain is 2.5%.
Oct 16, 2026
September CPI 3.7%: gasoline up 9.1% did over half the work
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% in September 2026 and 3.7% over 12 months, BLS said on October 14. Core was 2.6%. The arithmetic from the index levels.
Oct 13, 2026
September CPI, due October 14: the 324.800 base and what BLS publishes
The September 2026 CPI is due at 8:30 a.m. ET on October 14. What BLS publishes, why the September 2025 index level of 324.800 matters, and what hangs on it.
Oct 13, 2026
NBER took 12 months to date the 2007 peak and 4 to date 2020
The committee that dates US recessions has no formula, no two-quarter rule and no deadline. Its records show lags of 4 to 21 months before a call.
Oct 13, 2026
Gasoline is $4.35: up $1.23 in a year, down 11 cents in a week
EIA's weekly survey put regular at $4.354 a gallon in the week of October 5, 2026. What is inside that number, why California pays $6.23, and your sums.
Oct 13, 2026
Net 31% of small firms raised prices in August, NFIB survey says
The NFIB Optimism Index fell to 98.7 in August 2026; September's reading is due October 13. What the index measures, who answers, and why prices matter.
Oct 13, 2026
Jobless claims at 197,000: 36,000 fewer than a year earlier
Initial claims were 197,000 in the week ending October 3, 2026, the 4-week average 198,000, continuing claims 1,716,000. What each counts and what it cannot.
Oct 13, 2026
Trade deficit jumped to $105.6bn in August: imports did it
The August 2026 US trade gap widened $12.7bn in a month, almost all on the import side: gold, crude oil and chips. Year to date it is still 19.9% below 2025.
Oct 13, 2026
Card rate hits 22.36% as revolving balances fall 4.2% in August
The Fed's G.19 for August 2026 shows credit card balances shrinking at a 4.2% annual rate while the card rate ticked up to 22.36%, before the September hike.
Oct 13, 2026
Fed minutes: 16 of 18 pencilled in a higher rate by December 2026
The minutes of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting, released October 7, 2026, record a 12–0 hike and “most participants” expecting another by year end.
Oct 7, 2026
August 2026: one job opening per unemployed person, quits at 1.9%
JOLTS counted 7,079,000 openings on the last business day of August 2026, against 7,031,000 unemployed. The quits rate held at 1.9%.
Oct 7, 2026
Business bankruptcies pass their 2019 level; personal filings do not
U.S. courts logged 608,511 bankruptcy cases in the 12 months to June 30, 2026, up 12.2%. Business cases now exceed 2019; personal cases are 22.5% below it.
Oct 7, 2026
Household debt fell $13bn in Q2 2026; card stress held at 6.97%
The New York Fed puts household debt at $18.771 trillion for June 2026. The total dipped; new card delinquencies ran at 4.6 times the mortgage pace.
Oct 7, 2026
Q2 GDP revised up to 2.2%, while prices rose at 6.1%
BEA's third estimate lifted April–June 2026 growth from 1.5% to 2.2%. Consumers drove it, trade subtracted, and prices rose almost three times as fast.
Oct 7, 2026
Same 3.4% headline, but the Fed's core gauge ran at 3.0% in August
PCE and CPI inflation were both 3.4% in the year to August 2026. Ex food and energy, the Fed's PCE gauge was 3.0% and the CPI 2.4%. The weights explain why.
Oct 7, 2026
September added 29,000 jobs, and July turned negative again
Payrolls rose 29,000 in September 2026 and unemployment edged up to 4.2%. Revisions cut July and August by 60,000, putting July back below zero.
Sep 28, 2026
Interest on the debt outran defense by $141bn in FY2026 to August
The Treasury's own ledger shows $6,811bn spent against $4,845bn collected in eleven months. Net interest, at $1,017bn, is the second-largest line.
Sep 28, 2026
The unemployment rate has six versions. Here is August 2026 in each
The headline 4.1% is U-3. The same BLS release also put the rate at 1.8%, 1.9%, 4.4%, 5.1% and 7.7%. Who each version counts, and what the gaps have meant.
Sep 28, 2026
How the CPI is built: 80,000 prices, and shelter sets the pace
Owners' equivalent rent alone is 26% of the index, priced from a rent survey that revisits each unit every six months. Here is what 3.4% is made of.
Sep 23, 2026
Retail sales rose 1.2% in August — before adjusting for prices
The Census Bureau does not take inflation out of this number and says so in the release. Once you do, the consumer looks steady rather than strong — and one category tells you people bought less of something while spending more on it.
Sep 21, 2026
Every number on this page has a date. Here they all are.
A tour of the September 2026 data — what was measured, when it was published, and how old each figure is by the time it reaches you.
Sep 21, 2026
How to read a Federal Reserve statement
The September 16 statement is a few hundred words long and every one of them was negotiated. Here is what the phrasing tells you that the rate decision does not.
Sep 21, 2026
Inflation is 3.4%. Inflation is also 2.4%. Both are correct.
The Federal Reserve watches one of these numbers and you pay the other. The gap between them in August was almost entirely the price of energy.
Sep 21, 2026
The unemployment rate held at 4.1%. So did the reason to check the other number.
Labor force participation was 61.6% in August, half a percentage point lower than in January. People who stop looking for work stop being counted as unemployed.
Sep 21, 2026
August added 162,000 jobs. The average of the prior twelve months was 31,000.
The strongest hiring month in a year sits on top of a twelve-month average five times smaller. Both numbers are true, and only one of them is a trend.
Sep 21, 2026
July's jobs number went from −23,000 to +21,000. That is not a rounding error.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised two months of hiring up by a combined 55,000. One of them changed sign, and it is the figure this publication built an article around.
Sep 21, 2026
The Fed stopped arguing with itself, and raised rates
In July three officials wanted higher rates and lost. On September 16 the vote was 12–0. Nothing about the committee changed — the data did.
Aug 17, 2026
The economy is sending two signals at once. The Fed is listening to the louder one.
Payrolls fell. Retail sales fell. Inflation held at 3.4%. And three Federal Reserve officials voted to raise interest rates. Here is how those facts fit together.
Aug 16, 2026
24.6%
Inflation is 3.4%. Gasoline is up 24.6% over the same twelve months. That gap explains almost every argument about the economy in the summer of 2026.