Retail sales rose 0.8% in September. Gas stations were 71% of it
Census put September 2026 retail and food services sales at $745.0 billion, up 6.3% on the year. Take out the 3.7% CPI and the real gain is 2.5%.
- What happened
- The Census Bureau's advance estimate, released October 15, 2026, put September 2026 retail and food services sales at $745.0 billion, up 0.8% (±0.4%) from August and 6.3% (±0.5%) from September 2025. August was revised up, from a 1.1% monthly gain to 1.3%.
- Why
- Retail sales are counted in dollars, not in goods. Gasoline station sales rose 6.4% in a single month and 28.1% over the year while the CPI gasoline index rose 9.1% and 34.2%, so most of the headline is fuel prices, not more shopping.
- The numbers that matter
- $745.0bnRetail and food services sales, September 2026, advance+0.8%Change from August 2026 (±0.4%)+0.2%Change from August excluding gasoline stations+2.5%12-month change after the September CPI, our calculation
- Why it matters
- A household's grocery, restaurant and fuel bills are inside these totals. Sales ex gasoline rose 4.5% on the year against 3.7% inflation, which is a real increase of under 1%, and food and beverage store sales rose 0.9% in nominal terms, which is a fall in volume.
- What happens nextas we saw it on 16 Oct 2026
- The October 2026 advance retail report is scheduled for November 17, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET; the October CPI is scheduled for November 10, 2026.
The total rose 6.3% on the year; take away gasoline stations and motor vehicles and it rose 5.0%, against a CPI of 3.7%.
| Gasoline stations | 28.1% |
|---|---|
| Retail and food services, total | 6.3% |
| Total excl. motor vehicles and gasoline | 5.0% |
| Food and beverage stores | 0.9% |
| Health and personal care stores | -1.2% |
Americans spent $5.7 billion more at shops, restaurants and gasoline pumps in September 2026 than in August. Of that increase, $4.1 billion went through gasoline stations. The Census Bureau's advance estimate, published on October 15, 2026, shows a headline that looks strong and an underlying picture that is flat once fuel is taken out.
The advance estimate of US retail and food services sales for September 2026 was $745.0 billion, up 0.8% (±0.4%) from August 2026 and up 6.3% (±0.5%) from September 2025. Sales for July through September 2026 were up 5.5% (±0.5%) from the same three months a year earlier. The figures are seasonally adjusted and adjusted for holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. Source: Census Bureau, CB26-165, released October 15, 2026.
The site covered the August release in retail sales for August 2026. This piece reports what September actually showed, what changed in the August figure, and what is left of the headline once the September CPI is applied.
Where the $5.7 billion came from
The Census tables give dollar levels as well as percentage changes, which makes it possible to attribute the monthly gain line by line.
Table 1 of the release gives September 2026 sales of $745,021 million against a revised August figure of $739,322 million, an increase of $5,699 million. Gasoline station sales were $68,021 million in September against $63,950 million in August, an increase of $4,071 million. 4,071 ÷ 5,699 = 71.4%. Sales excluding gasoline stations were $677,000 million against $675,372 million, a rise of $1,628 million, or 0.2%. Inputs: Census Bureau, Table 1, adjusted, millions of dollars.
Among the thirteen kinds of business the release reports, gasoline stations had by far the largest change: +6.4% from August and +28.1% from September 2025. The next largest monthly moves were miscellaneous store retailers (−3.0%), department stores (+1.6%), furniture and home furnishings stores (+1.3%) and food services and drinking places (+1.1%). Building material and garden supply stores fell 0.6%, sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores fell 0.5%, general merchandise stores fell 0.1% and clothing stores were unchanged. Source: Census Bureau, Table 2, released October 15, 2026.
The 6.4% jump in gasoline station sales is a price story, not a volume one. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' September CPI, released on October 14, 2026, put the seasonally adjusted gasoline index up 9.1% in the month and 34.2% over the year. Gasoline station receipts rose by less than gasoline prices did, which implies that drivers bought fewer gallons.
If receipts are price multiplied by volume, then volume changes by (1 + receipts change) ÷ (1 + price change) − 1. (1.281 ÷ 1.342) − 1 = −4.5%. This is a rough proxy: gasoline stations also sell food, drinks and other items, and the CPI gasoline index is a consumer price measure rather than a station-level one. Inputs: Census Bureau Table 2 (gasoline stations, 12-month change +28.1%); BLS CPI September 2026 (gasoline index, 12-month change +34.2%).
The headline, ex-autos and ex-gas
| Measure | Sep 2026 level, $ millions | From Aug 2026 | From Sep 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail and food services, total | 745,021 | +0.8% (±0.4%) | +6.3% (±0.5%) |
| Excluding motor vehicles and parts | 605,188 | +0.9% | +7.2% |
| Excluding gasoline stations | 677,000 | +0.2% | +4.5% |
| Excluding motor vehicles and gasoline stations | 537,167 | +0.2% | +5.0% |
| Motor vehicle and parts dealers | 139,833 | +0.2% | +2.5% |
| Gasoline stations | 68,021 | +6.4% | +28.1% |
| Food services and drinking places | 92,906 | +1.1% | +7.0% |
| Nonstore retailers | 124,283 | +0.3% | +8.2% |
Two things stand out. Motor vehicle dealers added almost nothing in September: a 0.2% monthly rise and 2.5% over the year, well under the 6.3% for the total. And excluding gasoline stations, the month was a 0.2% gain, within the ±0.4% margin the Census Bureau attaches to the headline. The release does not publish a margin for the ex-gas measure, but its chart flags that some category changes are not statistically different from zero at the 90% confidence level.
The Census Bureau does not publish a “control group” figure. That measure, which strips out motor vehicles, gasoline, building materials and food services, is calculated by private analysts from the release tables, and this piece does not attempt it.
What happened to August
The release states that the July 2026 to August 2026 percent change was revised from up 1.1% (±0.4%) to up 1.3%. Revised August sales were $739.3 billion. The release also notes that the monthly estimates were revised on September 28, 2026, to incorporate historical corrections and results from the 2023 and 2024 Annual Integrated Economic Survey, so the August base against which September is measured is not the one that was printed in the advance August report. Source: Census Bureau, CB26-165, released October 15, 2026.
This is how revisions work in the retail series: the advance estimate is built from the early responses to the monthly survey, the preliminary figure a month later uses more of them, and once a year the whole history is benchmarked to the annual survey. The 0.2 point upward revision to August means that the two-month gain for August and September together is 2.1% in nominal dollars, a larger move than either month's print on its own.
Gasoline station sales rose 4.0% in August and 6.4% in September. Both months' headline gains sit on top of a fuel price rise that the CPI puts at 34.2% over twelve months. The September ex-gas figure of +0.2% is the weakest reading in the release, and one month is not a trend.
Taking out inflation
Retail sales are a nominal series. The release says so in its own notes. The September CPI, released on October 14, 2026, puts all-items prices up 3.7% over the twelve months to September 2026 and 0.6% on the month, with the energy index up 20.4% and food up 2.5% over the year.
Real change = (1 + nominal change) ÷ (1 + price change) − 1. Twelve months: (1.063 ÷ 1.037) − 1 = +2.5%. One month: (1.008 ÷ 1.006) − 1 = +0.2%. Excluding motor vehicles and gasoline: (1.050 ÷ 1.037) − 1 = +1.3% over the year. Excluding gasoline stations only: (1.045 ÷ 1.037) − 1 = +0.8%. The all-items CPI is a rough deflator for retail sales because the two baskets differ: the CPI includes rent and services that are not retail sales, and retail sales include business purchases. Inputs: Census Bureau Table 2 (September 2026 changes); BLS CPI September 2026 (all items +3.7% over twelve months, not seasonally adjusted; +0.6% on the month, seasonally adjusted).
Food and beverage stores show the arithmetic most plainly. Their sales rose 0.9% over the year, against a food CPI rise of 2.5%. Grocery stores, the largest component, also rose 0.9%. Americans spent slightly more at the supermarket and took home less.
What it means for your money
The mechanism is simple. When the price of one thing a household cannot easily avoid rises sharply, the dollars spent on it rise, and the dollar total of all spending rises with it. That shows up as “strong retail sales”. It is not the same as a household buying more, and in September 2026 the evidence points the other way for both fuel and groceries.
- Fuel. Gasoline station receipts rose 28.1% over the year while gasoline prices rose 34.2%. A household that drives the same miles as a year ago is spending roughly a third more on fuel; the aggregate data suggest that households as a whole have cut mileage by a few percent rather than absorb the whole rise.
- Groceries. Food and beverage store sales rose 0.9% over the year against food prices up 2.5%. A grocery budget that has grown by less than 2.5% since September 2025 is buying less food.
- Cars. Motor vehicle and parts dealers rose 2.5% over the year, below the all-items CPI. Whatever households are cutting back on, the September data say vehicles are part of it.
For a reader tracking their own spending, the useful habit is the one this site set out in how to check a number is current: write the nominal figure next to the price index for the same period, divide, and treat the result as the real change. For September 2026 that is 1.063 divided by 1.037, and the answer is 2.5%, not 6.3%. The companion pieces on the savings rate and consumer credit show the other two sides of the household ledger.
Sources
- Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, September 2026 (CB26-165)US Census Bureau · Oct 16, 2026 · Primary source
- Monthly Retail Trade: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food ServicesUS Census Bureau · Oct 16, 2026 · Primary source
- Consumer Price Index, September 2026US Bureau of Labor Statistics · Oct 16, 2026 · Primary source
- Economic Briefing Room — economic indicator release scheduleU.S. Census Bureau · 2026 · Primary source
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