Fed holds at 3.75–4%, 10–2, with two votes for a hike
The October 28, 2026 FOMC kept the range at 3-3/4 to 4 percent; Cook and Hammack wanted a quarter point more. Next morning: GDP +3.4%, PCE inflation 3.6%.
◆ The Signal
30-second read
- What happened
- On October 28, 2026 the FOMC left the federal funds target range at 3-3/4 to 4 percent by a 10–2 vote. Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack voted against, preferring a quarter-point increase. On October 29 BEA reported Q3 2026 real GDP growth of 3.4% annualised and a September PCE price index up 3.6% on the year.
- Why
- A dissent is recorded in the statement itself, so it is a public fact, not a leak. The statement says activity is “expanding at a strong pace” and inflation “remains elevated”, and the next morning's data matched both phrases. Treasury yields, which set the rates households pay, fell across October regardless.
- The numbers that matter
- 3-3/4 to 4%Federal funds target range, maintained October 28, 2026 (vote 10–2)3.4%Real GDP, Q3 2026 advance estimate, annualised (BEA, October 29, 2026)3.6%PCE price index, 12 months to September 2026; core 3.1% (BEA, October 29, 2026)4.98%10-year Treasury par yield, October 29, 2026; 5.24% on October 1
- Why it matters
- The hold leaves prime at 7.00% and overnight savings rates where they were; the 26-basis-point October fall in the 10-year yield is what moved mortgage quotes, not the Fed.
- What happens next
- The Fed's calendar lists the next FOMC meeting for December 8–9, 2026, with a Summary of Economic Projections. BEA's second estimate of Q3 GDP is scheduled for November 25, 2026.
Treasury par yields
Across October the 2-year fell 17 basis points, the 10-year 26 and the 30-year 29, while the Fed's target range did not move.
| 2-year, Oct 1 | 4.78 |
|---|---|
| 2-year, Oct 29 | 4.61 |
| 10-year, Oct 1 | 5.24 |
| 10-year, Oct 29 | 4.98 |
| 30-year, Oct 1 | 5.61 |
| 30-year, Oct 29 | 5.32 |
Percent, daily par yield curve, US TreasurySource: US Department of the Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, October 2026 (through October 29, 2026)
Go deeper
Two members of the Federal Open Market Committee voted on October 28, 2026 to raise interest rates, and lost. The statement the committee published that afternoon records the result as a 10–2 vote to hold the federal funds target range at 3-3/4 to 4 percent, with Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack voting against. Six weeks earlier, on September 16, the same committee had raised the range by a quarter point on a 12–0 vote.
The next morning the Bureau of Economic Analysis published two releases that bear on the dissenters' case. Real GDP grew at a 3.4% annualised rate in the third quarter of 2026. The PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, rose 0.5% in September alone and 3.6% over twelve months. Treasury yields, which had already fallen through most of October, rose on the day of the decision and fell again on the day of the data.
The statement, in its own words
Fact
The committee held the range “in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate” and kept its reserves policy unchanged
The October 28, 2026 statement says: “The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-3/4 to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate.” It adds: “The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.”
The October 28, 2026 statement says: “The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-3/4 to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate.” It adds: “The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.”
Fact
The description of the economy is unusually direct: strong activity, elevated inflation, strong productivity
Four sentences carry the committee's view. “Economic activity is expanding at a strong pace.” “Inflation remains elevated.” “Productivity growth is strong, and capital investment is robust.” “Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.” On risk it says: “While uncertainty remains elevated owing, in part, to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient.”
Four sentences carry the committee's view. “Economic activity is expanding at a strong pace.” “Inflation remains elevated.” “Productivity growth is strong, and capital investment is robust.” “Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.” On risk it says: “While uncertainty remains elevated owing, in part, to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient.”
The accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the Committee's 2 percent goal. The Committee will deliver price stability.FOMC statement, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, October 28, 2026
Fact
The dissent is written into the statement, with names and a stated preference
The statement's final paragraph reads: “Voting against the monetary policy action were Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.” The introductory line records the tally: “The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 10 – 2 vote.”
The statement's final paragraph reads: “Voting against the monetary policy action were Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.” The introductory line records the tally: “The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 10 – 2 vote.”
A dissent is not a leak or a rumour. Twelve people vote at each meeting: the seven governors and five of the twelve reserve bank presidents, on a rotation. Anyone who votes against the majority is named in the statement, together with what they would have preferred. The minutes, published three weeks later, add detail; the votes do not change. How to read the rest of the document is covered in the site's guide to the statement.
Data
Three statements, three vote counts: 9–3 in July, 12–0 in September, 10–2 in October
The Fed's own press releases record the sequence. On July 29, 2026 the committee held the range at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent by 9–3, with Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie K. Logan preferring a quarter-point increase. On September 16, 2026 it raised the range to 3-3/4 to 4 percent by 12–0. On October 28, 2026 it held by 10–2, with Cook and Hammack preferring a quarter-point increase. The site covered the September vote in the unanimous-hike piece and the minutes, in which “most participants” expected a further increase, in the minutes piece.
The Fed's own press releases record the sequence. On July 29, 2026 the committee held the range at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent by 9–3, with Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie K. Logan preferring a quarter-point increase. On September 16, 2026 it raised the range to 3-3/4 to 4 percent by 12–0. On October 28, 2026 it held by 10–2, with Cook and Hammack preferring a quarter-point increase. The site covered the September vote in the unanimous-hike piece and the minutes, in which “most participants” expected a further increase, in the minutes piece.
Interpretation
The statement's language leaves the door open without walking through it
“Accumulation of more information” is the committee saying it chose to wait; “will deliver price stability” commits to the goal, not a date. Read with two dissents for a hike, the text describes a committee still arguing. That is an observation about the text, not a prediction of the December vote.
“Accumulation of more information” is the committee saying it chose to wait; “will deliver price stability” commits to the goal, not a date. Read with two dissents for a hike, the text describes a committee still arguing. That is an observation about the text, not a prediction of the December vote.
The next morning: GDP 3.4%, PCE inflation 3.6%
Data
Real GDP grew 3.4% annualised in Q3 2026, up from 2.2% in Q2
BEA's advance estimate, released October 29, 2026 at 8:30 a.m., states that “real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.4 percent in the third quarter of 2026”, after 2.2% in the second quarter. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the measure that strips out trade, inventories and government, rose 4.9%, after 4.6%. The quarterly PCE price index rose 2.1% annualised, after 5.0% in Q2; the core index rose 2.5%, after 3.3%. The second estimate is scheduled for November 25, 2026. How much an advance estimate moves is in the site's primer.
BEA's advance estimate, released October 29, 2026 at 8:30 a.m., states that “real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.4 percent in the third quarter of 2026”, after 2.2% in the second quarter. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, the measure that strips out trade, inventories and government, rose 4.9%, after 4.6%. The quarterly PCE price index rose 2.1% annualised, after 5.0% in Q2; the core index rose 2.5%, after 3.3%. The second estimate is scheduled for November 25, 2026. How much an advance estimate moves is in the site's primer.
Data
September PCE prices rose 0.5% in the month and 3.6% over the year; core 0.3% and 3.1%
BEA's Personal Income and Outlays release for September 2026, also dated October 29, puts the PCE price index up 0.5% on the month and 3.6% from September 2025. Excluding food and energy, the index rose 0.3% and 3.1%. Personal income rose 0.2%; nominal spending rose 0.5%; real spending rose less than 0.1%. The saving rate was 3.8%.
BEA's Personal Income and Outlays release for September 2026, also dated October 29, puts the PCE price index up 0.5% on the month and 3.6% from September 2025. Excluding food and energy, the index rose 0.3% and 3.1%. Personal income rose 0.2%; nominal spending rose 0.5%; real spending rose less than 0.1%. The saving rate was 3.8%.
Wealth Signal calculation
Almost all of September's spending growth was price, and the headline-core gap is 0.5 points
Nominal PCE +0.5% minus the PCE price index +0.5% leaves real PCE at roughly 0.0%, which is what BEA's table shows. The twelve-month headline rate of 3.6% less the core rate of 3.1% is 0.5 percentage points, the contribution of food and energy. Headline is 1.6 points, and core 1.1 points, above the 2% goal the statement names. Inputs: BEA, October 29, 2026.
Nominal PCE +0.5% minus the PCE price index +0.5% leaves real PCE at roughly 0.0%, which is what BEA's table shows. The twelve-month headline rate of 3.6% less the core rate of 3.1% is 0.5 percentage points, the contribution of food and energy. Headline is 1.6 points, and core 1.1 points, above the 2% goal the statement names. Inputs: BEA, October 29, 2026.
3.4%
Real GDP, Q3 2026, annualised
Advance estimate; Q2 was 2.2% (BEA, Oct 29, 2026)
3.6%
PCE price index, 12 months to Sep 2026
Core 3.1%; monthly 0.5% and 0.3% (BEA, Oct 29, 2026)
3.8%
Personal saving rate, September 2026
Personal saving $911.1 billion (BEA, Oct 29, 2026)
Interpretation
The quarterly and monthly inflation figures point in different directions, and both are in the statement
The quarterly PCE index slowed to 2.1% annualised in Q3 from 5.0% in Q2, which fits “accumulation of more information”. The September monthly reading of 0.5%, if repeated for a year, is a 6% pace, which fits “inflation remains elevated”. One month is not a trend, and the committee saw neither number before it voted.
The quarterly PCE index slowed to 2.1% annualised in Q3 from 5.0% in Q2, which fits “accumulation of more information”. The September monthly reading of 0.5%, if repeated for a year, is a 6% pace, which fits “inflation remains elevated”. One month is not a trend, and the committee saw neither number before it voted.
What Treasury yields did across October
The Fed sets an overnight rate. The rates a household meets on a mortgage or a car loan come off the Treasury curve. Treasury publishes a par yield curve every business day, and the October table tells a clearer story than the vote.
| Date | 2-year | 10-year | 30-year | 10-year minus 2-year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 1 | 4.78 | 5.24 | 5.61 | 0.46 |
| October 15 | 4.77 | 5.10 | 5.43 | 0.33 |
| October 22 | 4.65 | 4.96 | 5.29 | 0.31 |
| October 28 (FOMC) | 4.67 | 5.05 | 5.37 | 0.38 |
| October 29 (GDP, PCE) | 4.61 | 4.98 | 5.32 | 0.37 |
Source: US Department of the Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, October 2026, retrieved October 30, 2026. Spread column is this site's subtraction.
Wealth Signal calculation
October 1 to October 29: 2-year −17 basis points, 10-year −26, 30-year −29
2-year: 4.61 − 4.78 = −0.17 percentage points, or −17 basis points. 10-year: 4.98 − 5.24 = −0.26, or −26 basis points. 30-year: 5.32 − 5.61 = −0.29, or −29 basis points. The gap between the 10-year and the 2-year narrowed from 46 to 37 basis points. The largest single day was October 22, when the 10-year fell from 5.13 to 4.96, a 17-basis-point drop, and the 2-year from 4.81 to 4.65.
2-year: 4.61 − 4.78 = −0.17 percentage points, or −17 basis points. 10-year: 4.98 − 5.24 = −0.26, or −26 basis points. 30-year: 5.32 − 5.61 = −0.29, or −29 basis points. The gap between the 10-year and the 2-year narrowed from 46 to 37 basis points. The largest single day was October 22, when the 10-year fell from 5.13 to 4.96, a 17-basis-point drop, and the 2-year from 4.81 to 4.65.
Wealth Signal calculation
Decision day +6 basis points on the 10-year; data day −7
October 27 to October 28: 10-year 4.99 to 5.05, +6 basis points; 30-year 5.30 to 5.37, +7; 2-year 4.70 to 4.67, −3. October 28 to October 29: 10-year 5.05 to 4.98, −7 basis points; 30-year 5.37 to 5.32, −5; 2-year 4.67 to 4.61, −6.
October 27 to October 28: 10-year 4.99 to 5.05, +6 basis points; 30-year 5.30 to 5.37, +7; 2-year 4.70 to 4.67, −3. October 28 to October 29: 10-year 5.05 to 4.98, −7 basis points; 30-year 5.37 to 5.32, −5; 2-year 4.67 to 4.61, −6.
Interpretation
The long end moved on the hold, and reversed on the data; the net is a steeper curve on the day, flatter on the month
On October 28 the 2-year fell while the 10-year and 30-year rose, so the curve steepened by 9 basis points in one session. On October 29 all three fell together. The 2-year at 4.61% on October 29 still sits 61 basis points above the top of the target range, and the 3-month at 4.18% sits 18 above it. Those are facts about the curve, not a statement of what the committee does next. Mechanics are in the glossary entry and the 10-year-at-5% piece.
On October 28 the 2-year fell while the 10-year and 30-year rose, so the curve steepened by 9 basis points in one session. On October 29 all three fell together. The 2-year at 4.61% on October 29 still sits 61 basis points above the top of the target range, and the 3-month at 4.18% sits 18 above it. Those are facts about the curve, not a statement of what the committee does next. Mechanics are in the glossary entry and the 10-year-at-5% piece.
What it means for your money
The decision changed nothing a household pays or earns overnight, and that is the point of a hold. The rates that did move in October moved because the Treasury curve moved.
- Credit cards and variable loans. The bank prime rate on the Fed's H.15 release was 7.00% on October 28, 2026, unchanged by the decision. Card rates are quoted as prime plus a margin, so a hold leaves them where they were; the arithmetic of a balance is in the consumer credit piece.
- Mortgages. Freddie Mac's survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.24% in the week of October 29, 2026, from 7.32% the week before and 7.40% in the week of October 15. That 16-basis-point fall over two weeks tracks the 10-year yield, down from 5.10% on October 15 to 4.98% on October 29, not the federal funds rate. The October 15 mortgage piece sets out the spread between the two; the mortgage entry turns a rate into a payment.
- Savings and bills. The effective federal funds rate was 3.88% on October 28. The 3-month Treasury par yield was 4.18% on October 29, and the 13-week bill is exempt from state income tax, which the bills-versus-savings piece works through. A hold means the overnight anchor for savings rates did not move. Against 3.6% PCE inflation, a 4.18% bill is roughly 0.6 points of real return before tax.
None of this says where the target range goes in December. The committee itself said it is waiting for “more information”, and two of its members have put on record that they already had enough.
What comes next, by date
Nov 25, 2026
BEA second estimate of Q3 2026 GDP, 8:30 a.m.
Dec 8–9, 2026
Next FOMC meeting, with a Summary of Economic Projections, per the Fed's calendar (dates tentative until confirmed at the prior meeting)
The Fed's calendar page, retrieved October 30, 2026, lists December 8–9 with an asterisk for a Summary of Economic Projections, and notes that each date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting before. The October meeting carried no projections; December is scheduled to. The site's calendar carries both dates.
This article does not claim what the FOMC decides on December 8–9, 2026, and it does not say that two dissents make a December hike more or less likely. It does not claim that the October 28 meeting was the first in this cycle with dissents for a hike: the July 29, 2026 statement records three. Every quotation is from the Fed's October 28, 2026 press release; GDP and PCE figures are BEA's October 29, 2026 releases and are subject to revision; yields are Treasury's par yield curve through October 29, 2026, and the basis-point changes are this site's subtraction. No October 30 figures appear here because the October 30 session had not closed at publication. Nothing here is financial advice.
Sources
- Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement (October 28, 2026)Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · Oct 30, 2026 · Primary source
- Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement (September 16, 2026)Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · Oct 30, 2026 · Primary source
- Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement (July 29, 2026)Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · Oct 30, 2026 · Primary source
- Meeting calendars and information (FOMC)Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · Oct 30, 2026 · Primary source
- Selected Interest Rates (Daily), H.15, release of October 29, 2026Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · Oct 30, 2026 · Primary source
- Gross Domestic Product, 3rd Quarter 2026 (Advance Estimate), news release, October 29, 2026U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Oct 30, 2026 · Primary source
- Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026, news release, October 29, 2026U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Oct 30, 2026 · Primary source
- Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, October 2026 (through October 29, 2026)U.S. Department of the Treasury · Oct 30, 2026 · Primary source
- Primary Mortgage Market Survey, week of October 29, 2026Freddie Mac · Oct 30, 2026 · Primary source
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