Economy · Oct 20, 2026
The Federal Open Market Committee meets on Tuesday–Wednesday, October 27–28, 2026. It is one of the four 2026 meetings with no Summary of Economic Projections. The target range going in is 3.75%–4.00%, set by a 12–0 vote on September 16, 2026, with interest on reserve balances at 3.90% from September 17.
3.75%–4.00%Federal funds target range, set September 16, 2026, effective September 17
3.90%Interest on reserve balances (IORB) rate, effective September 17, 2026
4.1%Median September 2026 SEP projection for the funds rate at end-2026; 16 of 18 participants at or above it
3.7%CPI-U, 12 months to September 2026 (BLS, October 14, 2026); core 2.6%
Source: Meeting calendars and information (FOMC), Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Real Estate · Oct 20, 2026
Privately owned housing starts ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,275,000 in August 2026, 2.6% (±12.0%) below July and 1.2% (±10.8%) below August 2025, according to the Census Bureau and HUD report of September 17, 2026. Completions were 1,128,000, 27.1% (±8.9%) below a year earlier. The September 2026 report was scheduled for 8:30 a.m. EDT on October 20, 2026.
1,275,000Housing starts, SAAR, August 2026 (Census/HUD, Sept 17, 2026)
1,394,000Building permits, SAAR, August 2026; 3.5% above August 2025
1,128,000Completions, SAAR, August 2026; −27.1% (±8.9%) from August 2025
72.0%Single-family share of starts, August 2026 (calculation: 918,000 ÷ 1,275,000)
Source: Monthly New Residential Construction, August 2026 (CB26-147, released September 17, 2026), U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
Economy · Oct 20, 2026
EIA's component breakdown for May 2026, the latest month on its Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update, splits a $4.479 gallon of regular into crude oil 51.9%, refining 21.7%, distribution and marketing 14.8% and taxes 11.5%. The national average pump price was $4.331 in the week of October 12, 2026, published October 14.
$4.331US regular gasoline, week of October 12, 2026 (EIA, published October 14)
51.9%Crude oil share of the $4.479 retail price, May 2026 (EIA pump components)
51.67¢Federal 18.40¢ plus average state 33.27¢ tax per gallon, as of January 2026 (EIA)
23.8¢Change in the crude cost of one gallon for a $10 move in a barrel (calculation, 42 gallons)
Source: Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (weekly retail prices for the week of October 12, 2026, released October 14, 2026; pump components, May 2026), U.S. Energy Information Administration
Wealth · Oct 20, 2026
The Treasury's daily real yield curve put the 10-year TIPS real yield at 2.74% on October 16, 2026 and 2.80% on October 19, 2026. The I bond fixed rate, the part of an I bond that is paid above inflation, is 0.90% for bonds issued May 1 through October 31, 2026. On the same October 16 the nominal 10-year par yield was 5.09%, so the market-implied inflation rate over ten years was 2.35%.
2.74%10-year TIPS real yield, Treasury par real yield curve, October 16, 2026
0.90%I bond fixed rate, bonds issued May 1 to October 31, 2026 (TreasuryDirect)
2.35%10-year breakeven inflation: 5.09% nominal minus 2.74% real, October 16, 2026 (calculation)
$988.98Extra real growth on $10,000 over five years at 2.74% versus 0.90% (calculation)
Source: Daily Treasury Par Real Yield Curve Rates, October 2026, U.S. Department of the Treasury
Markets · Oct 20, 2026
On August 13, 2020 the Treasury auctioned a 30-year bond with a 1.375% coupon at a high yield of 1.406% and a price of 99.243. On October 16, 2026 the Treasury par yield curve put the 20-year yield at 5.47% and the 30-year at 5.43%. At 5.45%, that 2020 bond, with 23.8 years left, prices at about 46.00 per 100 of face value.
1.375%Coupon on the 30-year bond auctioned August 13, 2020, high yield 1.406% (TreasuryDirect)
5.43%30-year Treasury par yield, October 16, 2026 (20-year: 5.47%)
46.00Computed clean price per 100 of the 1.375% bond of August 2050 at a 5.45% yield, settlement October 20, 2026
17.7Computed modified duration of that bond; a 2-year par note at 4.74% has a duration of 1.9
Source: Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, October 2026, U.S. Department of the Treasury
Wealth · Oct 20, 2026
The 13-week Treasury bill auctioned on October 13, 2026 cleared at a high discount rate of 4.085% and an investment rate of 4.185%, at a price of $98.967403 per $100. The FDIC national average rate on savings accounts for October 2026, published October 19, 2026, is 0.38%; for money market accounts it is 0.63%.
4.185%Investment rate, 13-week bill auctioned October 13, 2026 (Fiscal Service auction data)
0.38%FDIC national average savings rate, October 2026 (released October 19, 2026)
4.65%Tax-equivalent yield of that bill for a saver in a 10% state bracket (calculation)
$951.25Extra interest on $25,000 over a year at 4.185% versus 0.38% (calculation, before tax)
Source: Treasury Securities Auctions Data (auctions_query), bill auctions October 5 to October 20, 2026, Bureau of the Fiscal Service, Fiscal Data API
Wealth · Oct 20, 2026
IRS Publication 550 (for 2025 returns) and Tax Topic 409 (updated September 24, 2026) set the rules: net capital losses reduce ordinary income by at most $3,000 a year ($1,500 married filing separately), the unused part carries forward with no time limit, and a loss is disallowed if substantially identical stock is bought within 30 days before or after the sale, including inside an IRA.
$3,000Annual cap on net capital loss against ordinary income; $1,500 married filing separately (Pub 550)
30 daysWindow before and after a loss sale in which buying substantially identical stock disallows the loss (Pub 550)
$98,900Taxable income up to which the long-term rate is 0% for joint filers in 2026 (Rev. Proc. 2025-32)
$1,680Year-one tax saved on a $10,000 loss against $4,000 of short-term gains in the 24% bracket (calculation)
Source: Publication 550 (2025), Investment Income and Expenses (for use in preparing 2025 returns), Internal Revenue Service
Wealth · Oct 20, 2026
For 2026 the IRS phases out direct Roth IRA contributions between $153,000 and $168,000 of modified AGI for single filers and $242,000 to $252,000 for joint filers (IR-2025-111, November 13, 2025). The IRA limit is $7,500, or $8,600 at age 50 or older. Anyone can still contribute to a traditional IRA without a deduction and convert it, but the taxable share of that conversion is set by the ratio of all IRA balances at December 31.
$7,500IRA contribution limit, 2026 ($8,600 at age 50 or older), IRS IR-2025-111, Nov 13, 2025
$153,000 to $168,000Roth IRA phase-out range, single and head of household, 2026
92.5%Taxable share of a $7,500 conversion when $92,500 pre-tax sits in any IRA at Dec 31 (calculation)
$72,000Section 415(c) overall limit on 401(k) annual additions, 2026, up from $70,000
Source: 401(k) limit increases to $24,500 for 2026, IRA limit increases to $7,500 (IR-2025-111, November 13, 2025), Internal Revenue Service
Wealth · Oct 20, 2026
As of October 20, 2026 the IRS had not published the federal income tax brackets or standard deduction for tax year 2027. The 2026 figures, from Rev. Proc. 2025-32 of October 9, 2025, remain the latest: a 10% bracket to $12,400 single and $24,800 joint, and a standard deduction of $16,100 and $32,200.
3.2%Rise in the average C-CPI-U, 11 published months Sept 2025 to Aug 2026, over Sept 2024 to Aug 2025 (calculation from BLS data via FRED)
$24,800Top of the 10% bracket, married filing jointly, tax year 2026 (IRS, Oct 9, 2025)
$32,200Standard deduction, married filing jointly, tax year 2026; $16,100 single
$11,504Federal tax on $100,000 of taxable income, joint return, 2026 (calculation from the IRS table)
Source: IRS releases tax inflation adjustments for tax year 2026, including amendments from the One, Big, Beautiful Bill (IR-2025-103, October 9, 2025), Internal Revenue Service
Wealth · Oct 20, 2026
For anyone born in 1960 or later, full retirement age is 67. The Social Security Administration's tables show a benefit claimed at 62 is reduced 30%, and one delayed to 70 is increased 24%. A $2,000 full-age benefit is therefore $1,400 at 62, $2,000 at 67 and $2,480 at 70, before cost-of-living adjustments.
30%Reduction at 62 for full retirement age 67 (SSA, age-reduction table, retrieved October 20, 2026)
24%Delayed retirement credits from 67 to 70 at 8% a year (SSA, delayed retirement page)
78 years 8 monthsAge at which cumulative nominal benefits from claiming at 67 overtake claiming at 62 (calculation)
$2,170Average monthly benefit, all retired workers, January 2027 after the 3.6% COLA (SSA fact sheet)
Source: Early or Late Retirement? (Office of the Chief Actuary), Social Security Administration
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