Q3 GDP lands October 29. First estimates move 0.58 points on average
BEA's advance estimate of July–September 2026 GDP is scheduled for October 29. A guide: three estimates, the annualizing formula, what is already known.
◆ The Signal
30-second read
- What happened
- The Bureau of Economic Analysis has scheduled its advance estimate of third-quarter 2026 GDP for Thursday, October 29, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET, alongside September personal income and outlays. The number it replaces is the second-quarter third estimate of September 30, 2026: real GDP up 2.2% at an annual rate, current-dollar GDP up 8.5%, the GDP price index up 6.1%.
- Why
- The advance estimate is built before the quarter's source data are complete, so BEA publishes it again on November 25 and December 23. Across 1999–2022 the mean absolute revision from advance to third estimate was 0.58 percentage points, and from advance to the latest available figure 1.21 points.
- The numbers that matter
- Oct 29, 8:30 a.m.GDP (Advance Estimate), 3rd Quarter 2026, per BEA's release schedule2.2%Real GDP, Q2 2026, annual rate, third estimate (September 30, 2026)0.58 ptsMean absolute revision, advance to third estimate, real GDP, 1999–2022 (BEA)0.55%What 2.2% annualized is in one quarter: 1.022 to the power of one quarter, minus one
- Why it matters
- The headline is a one-quarter pace stated as if it ran for a year, in dollars with prices stripped out. Reading it wrong by either step changes the story about your own income by a factor of four.
- What happens nextas we saw it on 28 Oct 2026
- GDP (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits, 3rd Quarter 2026, is scheduled for November 25, 2026, and the third estimate for December 23, 2026, both at 8:30 a.m. ET.
How much GDP moves after the first print
The advance figure moves about half a point by the third estimate and more than a point by the time annual and comprehensive revisions are done.
| Advance to second | 0.45 |
|---|---|
| Advance to third | 0.58 |
| Second to latest | 1.18 |
| Third to latest | 1.19 |
| Advance to latest | 1.21 |
Percentage points, annual rate; sample 1999–2022Source: BEA, Survey of Current Business, Revisions to Gross Domestic Product, Gross Domestic Income, and Their Major Components, August 27, 2024, Appendix Table A
Go deeper
The number due at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, October 29, 2026 is scheduled to be rewritten twice before the year ends, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis says so in its own calendar. Its study of 1999–2022 found that the advance estimate of quarterly real GDP growth was revised by 0.58 percentage points on average by the third estimate, and by 1.21 points once later annual revisions were counted. The third-quarter 2026 figure is a measurement with a published error history, not a verdict.
Two more things shape how it reads. The headline is stated at an annual rate: a quarter in which output grew 0.55% is reported as 2.2%, because BEA compounds the quarterly change over four quarters. And the headline is real: dollars with the price index removed. In the second quarter of 2026 that gap was wide. Current-dollar GDP grew at 8.5% and real GDP at 2.2%, because the GDP price index rose at 6.1%.
Three estimates, one quarter
Fact
BEA's schedule lists three releases for third-quarter 2026 GDP
BEA's release schedule, fetched October 27, 2026, lists “GDP (Advance Estimate), 3rd Quarter 2026” for October 29 at 8:30 a.m., “GDP (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits, 3rd Quarter 2026” for November 25, and “GDP (Third Estimate), Industries, Corporate Profits, State GDP, and State Personal Income, 3rd Quarter 2026” for December 23. “Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026” is on the same morning as the advance estimate, so the September PCE price index appears alongside the quarter's figure. BEA's September 30 release states the same next date: “October 29, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. EDT”.
BEA's release schedule, fetched October 27, 2026, lists “GDP (Advance Estimate), 3rd Quarter 2026” for October 29 at 8:30 a.m., “GDP (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits, 3rd Quarter 2026” for November 25, and “GDP (Third Estimate), Industries, Corporate Profits, State GDP, and State Personal Income, 3rd Quarter 2026” for December 23. “Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026” is on the same morning as the advance estimate, so the September PCE price index appears alongside the quarter's figure. BEA's September 30 release states the same next date: “October 29, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. EDT”.
Fact
The advance estimate leans on projections where the third month is missing
BEA's advance release for the second quarter, published July 30, 2026, used the Census Bureau's Advance Economic Indicators Report for June for equipment, exports and imports, “a BEA projection for June” for structures, and “a judgmental trend” for research and development. The release says: “With the next release of GDP, today's data will be superseded.” BEA's 2015 note on reliability is blunter: “More than three-fifths of the initial, or advance, estimate of GDP is based on trend projections or indirect indicators.”
BEA's advance release for the second quarter, published July 30, 2026, used the Census Bureau's Advance Economic Indicators Report for June for equipment, exports and imports, “a BEA projection for June” for structures, and “a judgmental trend” for research and development. The release says: “With the next release of GDP, today's data will be superseded.” BEA's 2015 note on reliability is blunter: “More than three-fifths of the initial, or advance, estimate of GDP is based on trend projections or indirect indicators.”
| Measure | Advance (Jul 30) | Second (Aug 26) | Third (Sep 30) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.2 |
| Current-dollar GDP | 7.9 | 8.0 | 8.5 |
| Real final sales to private domestic purchasers | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.6 |
| Gross domestic purchases price index | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.6 |
| PCE price index | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.0 |
| PCE price index excluding food and energy | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.3 |
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, GDP (Third Estimate), 2nd Quarter 2026, September 30, 2026, table “Real GDP and Related Measures”. Covered in the Q2 piece.
Data
The second quarter moved 0.7 points between its second and third estimates
BEA described the September 30 figure of 2.2% as “an upward revision of 0.7 percentage point, primarily reflecting upward revisions to investment, consumer spending, and government spending.” The same release carried the 2026 annual update, which lifted first-quarter growth from 2.1% to 2.5%.
BEA described the September 30 figure of 2.2% as “an upward revision of 0.7 percentage point, primarily reflecting upward revisions to investment, consumer spending, and government spending.” The same release carried the 2026 annual update, which lifted first-quarter growth from 2.1% to 2.5%.
How big revisions usually are
Data
Advance-to-third: 0.58 points on average. Advance-to-latest: 1.21 points
BEA's August 27, 2024 Survey of Current Business article “Revisions to Gross Domestic Product, Gross Domestic Income, and Their Major Components” covers 1999–2022. For quarterly real GDP growth at annual rates its appendix tables give mean absolute revisions of 0.45 points from advance to second estimate, 0.58 from advance to third, and 1.21 from advance to the latest available estimate. The mean revisions, which keep the sign, are 0.10, 0.17 and 0.00 points: “positive and negative revisions tend to offset each other”, and the mean revisions “are not statistically different from zero for any of its components.” Over 96 quarters, “there were only 4 quarters where the sign of the annualized growth rate” changed between the third estimate and the latest one.
BEA's August 27, 2024 Survey of Current Business article “Revisions to Gross Domestic Product, Gross Domestic Income, and Their Major Components” covers 1999–2022. For quarterly real GDP growth at annual rates its appendix tables give mean absolute revisions of 0.45 points from advance to second estimate, 0.58 from advance to third, and 1.21 from advance to the latest available estimate. The mean revisions, which keep the sign, are 0.10, 0.17 and 0.00 points: “positive and negative revisions tend to offset each other”, and the mean revisions “are not statistically different from zero for any of its components.” Over 96 quarters, “there were only 4 quarters where the sign of the annualized growth rate” changed between the third estimate and the latest one.
Wealth Signal calculation
What 0.58 points means around a hypothetical 2.2% print
If the October 29 figure were 2.2%, the same as the second quarter, a revision equal to the 1999–2022 average absolute advance-to-third revision would put the December 23 figure anywhere from 2.2 − 0.58 = 1.6% to 2.2 + 0.58 = 2.8%. The advance-to-latest average of 1.21 points widens that to 1.0% to 3.4%. These are past averages applied to an illustrative number, not a range for the third quarter of 2026, whose first estimate had not been published when this was written.
If the October 29 figure were 2.2%, the same as the second quarter, a revision equal to the 1999–2022 average absolute advance-to-third revision would put the December 23 figure anywhere from 2.2 − 0.58 = 1.6% to 2.2 + 0.58 = 2.8%. The advance-to-latest average of 1.21 points widens that to 1.0% to 3.4%. These are past averages applied to an illustrative number, not a range for the third quarter of 2026, whose first estimate had not been published when this was written.
Interpretation
Read the direction of the pieces, not the second decimal of the headline
BEA's reliability note says early estimates “should be viewed as generally accurate and not substantively less reliable than later vintage estimates”, and the 2024 study finds no systematic bias. The signal usually sits in which components carried the quarter; see the data revisions entry.
BEA's reliability note says early estimates “should be viewed as generally accurate and not substantively less reliable than later vintage estimates”, and the 2024 study finds no systematic bias. The signal usually sits in which components carried the quarter; see the data revisions entry.
What “annualized” means, with the formula
BEA's FAQ states the convention: “A quarterly percent change at an annual rate shows what the percent change would be if the quarterly rate continued for four quarters. It is computed by compounding the quarterly rate for four quarters.” The formula it gives is (((level of quarter 2 ÷ level of quarter 1)^4) − 1) × 100; the quarterly rate is the same without the fourth power. BEA does this “for ease of comparison” with annual figures, and publishes corporate profits at quarterly rates instead “because annual rates of change may be misleading.”
Wealth Signal calculation
Second quarter 2026: 0.55% in the quarter became 2.2% at an annual rate
Real GDP was 24,274.383 billion chained 2017 dollars in the first quarter of 2026 and 24,408.011 billion in the second (FRED series GDPC1, updated September 30, 2026). Ratio: 1.005505, a quarterly rise of 0.55%, which BEA rounds to 0.6%. Raised to the fourth power: 1.0222, or 2.2% at an annual rate.
Real GDP was 24,274.383 billion chained 2017 dollars in the first quarter of 2026 and 24,408.011 billion in the second (FRED series GDPC1, updated September 30, 2026). Ratio: 1.005505, a quarterly rise of 0.55%, which BEA rounds to 0.6%. Raised to the fourth power: 1.0222, or 2.2% at an annual rate.
Wealth Signal calculation
Going the other way: 2.2% annualized is 0.55% a quarter; 3.4% is 0.84%
Take the fourth root: 1.022^(1/4) = 1.005455, so a 2.2% annual rate is 0.55% in the quarter. A 3.4% annual rate is 1.034^(1/4) = 1.008394, or 0.84%. Dividing by four gives 0.55% and 0.85%, close at these rates. The gap grows as rates rise: 1.02^4 − 1 = 8.2%, not 8.0%, which is why current-dollar GDP in the second quarter, up 2.06% in the quarter, printed at 8.5% rather than 8.2%.
Take the fourth root: 1.022^(1/4) = 1.005455, so a 2.2% annual rate is 0.55% in the quarter. A 3.4% annual rate is 1.034^(1/4) = 1.008394, or 0.84%. Dividing by four gives 0.55% and 0.85%, close at these rates. The gap grows as rates rise: 1.02^4 − 1 = 8.2%, not 8.0%, which is why current-dollar GDP in the second quarter, up 2.06% in the quarter, printed at 8.5% rather than 8.2%.
0.55%
One quarter's growth
Equivalent to 2.2% at an annual rate
2.2%
Annual rate
1.0055 compounded over four quarters
8.5%
Current-dollar GDP, Q2 2026
2.06% in the quarter, compounded
Nominal, real and the deflator
Wealth Signal calculation
Real growth is nominal growth divided by the price index, not nominal minus inflation
Current-dollar GDP rose from $31,906.274 billion to $32,563.030 billion between the first and second quarters of 2026 (FRED series GDP, updated September 30, 2026), a ratio of 1.020584. Real GDP's ratio was 1.005505. The implied price ratio is 1.020584 ÷ 1.005505 = 1.014996 for the quarter, and 1.014996^4 = 1.0613, or 6.1% at an annual rate, matching BEA's GDP price deflator page. Subtracting the rounded annual rates, 8.5 − 2.2 = 6.3, overstates it; division is the correct operation, as the nominal versus real entry explains.
Current-dollar GDP rose from $31,906.274 billion to $32,563.030 billion between the first and second quarters of 2026 (FRED series GDP, updated September 30, 2026), a ratio of 1.020584. Real GDP's ratio was 1.005505. The implied price ratio is 1.020584 ÷ 1.005505 = 1.014996 for the quarter, and 1.014996^4 = 1.0613, or 6.1% at an annual rate, matching BEA's GDP price deflator page. Subtracting the rounded annual rates, 8.5 − 2.2 = 6.3, overstates it; division is the correct operation, as the nominal versus real entry explains.
Fact
Two price indexes appear in the release, and they cover different baskets
BEA's deflator page says the GDP price index “measures changes in the prices of goods and services produced in the United States, including those exported” and excludes imports. The gross domestic purchases price index (5.6% in the second quarter) covers what US residents bought, imports included. The PCE price index (5.0%) covers household spending only; the CPI rose 3.7% over the twelve months to September 2026 (BLS, October 14, 2026).
BEA's deflator page says the GDP price index “measures changes in the prices of goods and services produced in the United States, including those exported” and excludes imports. The gross domestic purchases price index (5.6% in the second quarter) covers what US residents bought, imports included. The PCE price index (5.0%) covers household spending only; the CPI rose 3.7% over the twelve months to September 2026 (BLS, October 14, 2026).
What is already known about July–September
GDP is the sum of four spending components: personal consumption expenditures, gross private domestic investment, government consumption and investment, and net exports, which is exports minus imports. BEA's chart note on the last of these is the line readers most often miss: “An increase in imports results in a negative contribution to GDP.” Some monthly inputs for the third quarter are public; the September trade figures are not.
Data
Retail sales for July–September were up 5.5% on a year earlier, in dollars
The Census Bureau's advance report of October 15, 2026 (CB26-165) put September 2026 retail and food services sales at $745.0 billion, up 0.8% (±0.4%) from August and 6.3% (±0.5%) from September 2025, and July–September sales up 5.5% (±0.5%) on the same months of 2025. Excluding gasoline stations, September rose 0.2% on the month; gasoline station sales rose 6.4%, against a 9.1% rise in the CPI gasoline index. Retail sales are nominal; BEA deflates them before they enter consumer spending. Detail in the retail sales piece.
The Census Bureau's advance report of October 15, 2026 (CB26-165) put September 2026 retail and food services sales at $745.0 billion, up 0.8% (±0.4%) from August and 6.3% (±0.5%) from September 2025, and July–September sales up 5.5% (±0.5%) on the same months of 2025. Excluding gasoline stations, September rose 0.2% on the month; gasoline station sales rose 6.4%, against a 9.1% rise in the CPI gasoline index. Retail sales are nominal; BEA deflates them before they enter consumer spending. Detail in the retail sales piece.
Data
Trade is known through August; September's report comes six days after the GDP release
The Census Bureau and BEA release of October 6, 2026 put the August goods and services deficit at $105.6 billion, up from a revised $92.8 billion in July, with imports of $420.8 billion and exports of $315.2 billion; in 2017 dollars the goods deficit rose 8.2%. The September trade report is scheduled for November 4, 2026, so the advance figure for net exports rests on Census advance goods data and BEA assumptions for September, as it did for June in the second quarter. Composition in the August trade piece.
The Census Bureau and BEA release of October 6, 2026 put the August goods and services deficit at $105.6 billion, up from a revised $92.8 billion in July, with imports of $420.8 billion and exports of $315.2 billion; in 2017 dollars the goods deficit rose 8.2%. The September trade report is scheduled for November 4, 2026, so the advance figure for net exports rests on Census advance goods data and BEA assumptions for September, as it did for June in the second quarter. Composition in the August trade piece.
Fact
One scheduling caveat, and one model estimate
As of October 27, 2026 the Census Bureau's economic indicators page carried a notice that it was updating its release calendar after a lapse in federal funding; BEA's own schedule page, fetched the same day, listed October 29 with no such notice. Separately, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow page, updated October 27, 2026, showed a model estimate of 3.4% for third-quarter real GDP growth, with the next update listed for October 28. The page states: “GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter”, with “no subjective adjustments”. This site offers no projection of its own. The 3.4% is what a published model showed on a stated date; it is 0.84% in the quarter.
As of October 27, 2026 the Census Bureau's economic indicators page carried a notice that it was updating its release calendar after a lapse in federal funding; BEA's own schedule page, fetched the same day, listed October 29 with no such notice. Separately, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow page, updated October 27, 2026, showed a model estimate of 3.4% for third-quarter real GDP growth, with the next update listed for October 28. The page states: “GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter”, with “no subjective adjustments”. This site offers no projection of its own. The 3.4% is what a published model showed on a stated date; it is 0.84% in the quarter.
What it means for your money
A household never receives GDP. It receives wages, interest, rent and benefits in current dollars and pays prices that rose at the rates in the table above. Three conversions make the release legible.
- Undo the annual rate by compounding, not by dividing by four, when thinking in quarters. A 2.2% headline is 0.55% of extra output in three months. On the second quarter's real GDP of 24,408 billion chained 2017 dollars, that quarter's rise was 133.6 billion at an annual rate, or about 33 billion in the quarter itself.
- Compare your own dollar change with the price index, by division. A pay rise of 3.0% over a year against a 3.7% CPI rise is 1.030 ÷ 1.037 = 0.9932, a loss of 0.7% in purchasing power. The same arithmetic separates the 8.5% current-dollar figure from the 2.2% real one.
- Treat the first print as the midpoint of a band. On the 1999–2022 record the third estimate differs from the advance by 0.58 points on average, in either direction. A reading of 2.2% and a later reading of 2.8% are, on that history, the same quarter measured twice.
The savings rate piece applies the same nominal-to-real step to income. The FOMC piece covers the Federal Open Market Committee meeting of October 27–28, 2026, whose statement is scheduled for the day before the GDP figure.
This article does not claim what the third-quarter 2026 advance estimate is, and it offers no figure or range for it. The 1.6% to 2.8% and 1.0% to 3.4% bands are past average revisions applied to an illustrative 2.2%, not a projection. The 3.4% GDPNow figure is the Atlanta Fed's model estimate as shown on October 27, 2026, which the Atlanta Fed itself describes as not a forecast. Second-quarter figures are from BEA's release of September 30, 2026 and the FRED series GDP and GDPC1 as updated that day. The revision statistics are from BEA's August 2024 study of 1999–2022 and may not describe any single quarter. Nothing here is investment advice.
Sources
- Release Schedule (GDP advance, second and third estimates, 3rd Quarter 2026)U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Oct 27, 2026 · Primary source
- GDP (Third Estimate), Industries, Corporate Profits, State GDP, and State Personal Income, 2nd Quarter 2026, September 30, 2026U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Oct 27, 2026 · Primary source
- GDP (Third Estimate), 2nd Quarter 2026: full release with Real GDP and Related Measures table and Technical Note (PDF)U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Oct 27, 2026 · Primary source
- GDP (Advance Estimate), 2nd Quarter 2026, July 30, 2026U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Oct 27, 2026 · Primary source
- Revisions to Gross Domestic Product, Gross Domestic Income, and Their Major Components (Fixler, de Francisco, Schaaf), Survey of Current Business, August 27, 2024U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Oct 27, 2026 · Primary source
- BEA Continues to Explore the Reliability of Successive Vintages of Real GDP Estimates, May 7, 2015U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Oct 27, 2026 · Primary source
- FAQ 122: Why does BEA publish percent changes in quarterly series at annual rates?U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Oct 27, 2026 · Primary source
- Glossary: Annual rates of changeU.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Oct 27, 2026 · Primary source
- GDP Price Deflator (Q2 2026, third estimate)U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Oct 27, 2026 · Primary source
- U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, August 2026, October 6, 2026Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Census Bureau · Oct 27, 2026 · Primary source
- Real Gross Domestic Product (GDPC1), billions of chained 2017 dollars, SAAR, updated September 30, 2026 (source: BEA)Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) · Oct 27, 2026 · Primary source
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP), billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate; Q2 2026: 32,563.030; updated September 30, 2026Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), mirroring the Bureau of Economic Analysis · Oct 27, 2026 · Primary source
- Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, September 2026 (CB26-165), October 15, 2026U.S. Census Bureau · Oct 27, 2026 · Primary source
- Economic Indicators: notice on release calendar update following lapse in federal fundingU.S. Census Bureau · Oct 27, 2026 · Primary source
- Consumer Price Index, September 2026, October 14, 2026U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Oct 27, 2026 · Primary source
- GDPNow: Third-Quarter GDPNow Estimate for 2026:Q3, updated October 27, 2026 (model estimate; the page states it is not an official forecast)Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta · Oct 27, 2026 · Primary source
Related analysis
Q2 GDP revised up to 2.2%, while prices rose at 6.1%
BEA's third estimate lifted April–June 2026 growth from 1.5% to 2.2%. Consumers drove it, trade subtracted, and prices rose almost three times as fast.
Retail sales rose 0.8% in September. Gas stations were 71% of it
Census put September 2026 retail and food services sales at $745.0 billion, up 6.3% on the year. Take out the 3.7% CPI and the real gain is 2.5%.
Trade deficit jumped to $105.6bn in August: imports did it
The August 2026 US trade gap widened $12.7bn in a month, almost all on the import side: gold, crude oil and chips. Year to date it is still 19.9% below 2025.
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