Q2 GDP revised up to 2.2%, while prices rose at 6.1%
BEA's third estimate lifted April–June 2026 growth from 1.5% to 2.2%. Consumers drove it, trade subtracted, and prices rose almost three times as fast.
◆ The Signal
30-second read
- What happened
- On September 30, 2026 the Bureau of Economic Analysis put real GDP growth for April–June 2026 at a 2.2% annual rate, up from 1.5% in both the advance estimate of July 30 and the second estimate of August 26. Measured in dollars, GDP grew at an 8.5% annual rate.
- Why
- Real growth is dollar growth with the price level removed. In the second quarter the GDP price index rose at a 6.1% annual rate, so most of the dollar growth was prices, not extra output.
- The numbers that matter
- 2.2%Real GDP growth, Q2 2026, annual rate, third estimate (Sep 30, 2026)8.5%Current-dollar GDP growth, Q2 2026, annual rate6.1%GDP price index, Q2 2026, annual rate2.51 ptsConsumer spending's contribution to Q2 2026 growth
- Why it matters
- Wages, savings balances and rents are all paid in current dollars. Whether a household got richer depends on the gap between its own dollar gains and the price level, which is exactly the gap between nominal and real GDP.
- What happens nextas we saw it on 7 Oct 2026
- BEA's advance estimate of third-quarter 2026 GDP is scheduled for October 29, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET, with the second estimate on November 25 and the third on December 23, 2026.
What grew
Consumer spending added more than the whole economy grew; net exports took more than a point away.
| Consumer spending | 2.51 |
|---|---|
| Investment | 0.82 |
| Government | -0.01 |
| Net exports | -1.1 |
| Real GDP (total) | 2.2 |
percentage points at an annual rateSource: Bureau of Economic Analysis, NIPA Table 1.1.2 via FRED (updated Sep 30, 2026); GDP (Third Estimate), 2nd Quarter 2026, Sep 30, 2026
Go deeper
Two estimates of the same quarter agreed, and then the third did not. On July 30, 2026 the Bureau of Economic Analysis put US real GDP growth for April to June at a 1.5% annual rate. On August 26 it said the same. On September 30 it said 2.2%.
The bigger number in the release is a different one. Measured in current dollars, GDP grew at an 8.5% annual rate in the quarter. The GDP price index rose at 6.1%. Most of the growth in the dollar value of US output was a rise in prices, not a rise in the quantity of goods and services produced.
Three estimates, and what moved
BEA publishes each quarter three times as more complete source data arrive. The table sets the three side by side.
| Measure | Advance (Jul 30) | Second (Aug 26) | Third (Sep 30) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.2 |
| Current-dollar GDP | 7.9 | 8.0 | 8.5 |
| Real final sales to private domestic purchasers | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.6 |
| Real gross domestic income | … | 2.2 | 2.6 |
| Gross domestic purchases price index | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.6 |
| PCE price index | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.0 |
| PCE price index excluding food and energy | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.3 |
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, GDP (Third Estimate), 2nd Quarter 2026 (BEA 26-42), September 30, 2026, table “Real GDP and Related Measures”. “…” means not published in the advance estimate.
Data
BEA attributes the 0.7-point upward revision mainly to investment, consumer spending and government
In BEA's words, real GDP “increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent (0.6 percent at a quarterly rate) in the second quarter, an upward revision of 0.7 percentage point, primarily reflecting upward revisions to investment, consumer spending, and government spending.” Its technical note names private inventories and nonresidential structures within investment, services and goods within consumer spending, and federal defense purchases within government.
In BEA's words, real GDP “increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent (0.6 percent at a quarterly rate) in the second quarter, an upward revision of 0.7 percentage point, primarily reflecting upward revisions to investment, consumer spending, and government spending.” Its technical note names private inventories and nonresidential structures within investment, services and goods within consumer spending, and federal defense purchases within government.
Fact
The third estimate arrived with the annual update, which also rewrote the first quarter
BEA states that the September 30 release “also includes results from the 2026 annual update of the National Economic Accounts.” First-quarter 2026 real GDP growth was revised from 2.1% to 2.5%. On the September 30 figures the second quarter, at 2.2%, is a mild slowdown from the first; on the August 26 figures it read as a sharper one, from 2.1% to 1.5%.
BEA states that the September 30 release “also includes results from the 2026 annual update of the National Economic Accounts.” First-quarter 2026 real GDP growth was revised from 2.1% to 2.5%. On the September 30 figures the second quarter, at 2.2%, is a mild slowdown from the first; on the August 26 figures it read as a sharper one, from 2.1% to 1.5%.
This is why a GDP number needs its vintage attached. The 1.5% that was reported in July and August was BEA's best estimate on those dates; it is not the figure BEA published on September 30, 2026. The general point is set out in how data revisions work.
What grew: the contributions
A contribution is a component's share of the headline growth rate, measured in percentage points. The contributions add up, give or take rounding, to real GDP growth. That makes them the cleanest way to see what drove a quarter.
Data
Consumer spending contributed 2.51 points; net exports subtracted 1.10
In BEA's Table 1.1.2 as updated on September 30, 2026, the contributions to second-quarter real GDP growth were: personal consumption expenditures +2.51 points (of which goods +0.94), gross private domestic investment +0.82 (of which change in private inventories −0.53), exports +0.56, net exports −1.10, and government consumption and investment −0.01.
In BEA's Table 1.1.2 as updated on September 30, 2026, the contributions to second-quarter real GDP growth were: personal consumption expenditures +2.51 points (of which goods +0.94), gross private domestic investment +0.82 (of which change in private inventories −0.53), exports +0.56, net exports −1.10, and government consumption and investment −0.01.
Wealth Signal calculation
The pieces add back to the headline, and fill in the gaps
2.51 + 0.82 − 1.10 − 0.01 = 2.22, which BEA rounds to 2.2%. Services within consumer spending: 2.51 − 0.94 = 1.57 points. Fixed investment (investment excluding inventories): 0.82 − (−0.53) = 1.35 points. Imports: net exports minus exports, −1.10 − 0.56 = −1.66 points.
2.51 + 0.82 − 1.10 − 0.01 = 2.22, which BEA rounds to 2.2%. Services within consumer spending: 2.51 − 0.94 = 1.57 points. Fixed investment (investment excluding inventories): 0.82 − (−0.53) = 1.35 points. Imports: net exports minus exports, −1.10 − 0.56 = −1.66 points.
| Component | Second estimate (Aug 26) | Third estimate (Sep 30) |
|---|---|---|
| Consumer spending | 2.31 | 2.51 |
| Investment (incl. inventories) | 0.48 | 0.82 |
| Net exports | −1.14 | −1.10 |
| Government | −0.16 | −0.01 |
| Real GDP (headline, %) | 1.5 | 2.2 |
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, NIPA Table 1.1.2, as published on FRED and ALFRED in the vintages of August 26 and September 30, 2026.
Fact
Imports subtract by construction, not because they shrink the economy
GDP measures what is produced in the United States. Spending on an imported good is already counted inside consumer spending or investment, so BEA subtracts imports to remove production that happened abroad. BEA's chart note puts it plainly: “An increase in imports results in a negative contribution to GDP.”
GDP measures what is produced in the United States. Spending on an imported good is already counted inside consumer spending or investment, so BEA subtracts imports to remove production that happened abroad. BEA's chart note puts it plainly: “An increase in imports results in a negative contribution to GDP.”
Interpretation
Private demand was stronger than the headline
Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, which strips out inventories, trade and government, grew at 4.6%. Inventories subtracted 0.53 points and net exports 1.10. On these figures, households and businesses bought considerably more than the 2.2% headline suggests; less of it was met from new US production in the quarter.
Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, which strips out inventories, trade and government, grew at 4.6%. Inventories subtracted 0.53 points and net exports 1.10. On these figures, households and businesses bought considerably more than the 2.2% headline suggests; less of it was met from new US production in the quarter.
Real, nominal and the price index
Current-dollar GDP is the money value of output. Real GDP is that value with the price level removed. The GDP price index is the bridge between them. See nominal and real for the general idea.
8.5%
Current-dollar GDP
Q2 2026, annual rate, third estimate
6.1%
GDP price index
Q2 2026, annual rate, third estimate
2.2%
Real GDP
Q2 2026, annual rate, third estimate
Wealth Signal calculation
The price index can be recovered from the two GDP levels
Current-dollar GDP rose from $31,906.274 billion to $32,563.030 billion (annual rates), a ratio of 1.020584. Real GDP rose from 24,274.383 billion to 24,408.011 billion chained 2017 dollars, a ratio of 1.005505. Dividing, 1.020584 ÷ 1.005505 = 1.014996 for the quarter; raised to the fourth power, 1.0613, or 6.1% a year. That matches BEA's published figure.
Current-dollar GDP rose from $31,906.274 billion to $32,563.030 billion (annual rates), a ratio of 1.020584. Real GDP rose from 24,274.383 billion to 24,408.011 billion chained 2017 dollars, a ratio of 1.005505. Dividing, 1.020584 ÷ 1.005505 = 1.014996 for the quarter; raised to the fourth power, 1.0613, or 6.1% a year. That matches BEA's published figure.
Interpretation
Prices of what the US produced rose faster than prices of what it bought
The GDP price index (6.1%) covers goods and services produced in the US, including exports, and excludes imports. The gross domestic purchases price index (5.6%) covers what US residents bought, including imports. The GDP index running higher points to export prices rising faster than import prices in the quarter. This page does not establish which products drove that gap.
The GDP price index (6.1%) covers goods and services produced in the US, including exports, and excludes imports. The gross domestic purchases price index (5.6%) covers what US residents bought, including imports. The GDP index running higher points to export prices rising faster than import prices in the quarter. This page does not establish which products drove that gap.
What “annualized” means, with the arithmetic
BEA's headline is a quarterly change expressed as if it continued for a full year, compounded. It is not the change over the past twelve months, and it is not the quarterly change multiplied by four. The arithmetic of compound growth is the whole difference.
Wealth Signal calculation
Real GDP: 0.55% in the quarter becomes 2.2% annualized
24,408.011 ÷ 24,274.383 = 1.005505, a rise of 0.55% in the quarter (BEA rounds this to 0.6%). Compounded over four quarters: 1.0055054 = 1.0222, or 2.2%. Multiplying by four instead gives 2.20%. At low rates the two methods barely differ.
24,408.011 ÷ 24,274.383 = 1.005505, a rise of 0.55% in the quarter (BEA rounds this to 0.6%). Compounded over four quarters: 1.0055054 = 1.0222, or 2.2%. Multiplying by four instead gives 2.20%. At low rates the two methods barely differ.
Wealth Signal calculation
Current-dollar GDP: compounding adds a quarter of a point
32,563.030 ÷ 31,906.274 = 1.020584, a rise of 2.06% in the quarter. Times four: 8.23%. Compounded: 1.0205844 = 1.0849, or 8.5%. The 0.26-point gap is growth on growth, and it widens as rates rise.
32,563.030 ÷ 31,906.274 = 1.020584, a rise of 2.06% in the quarter. Times four: 8.23%. Compounded: 1.0205844 = 1.0849, or 8.5%. The 0.26-point gap is growth on growth, and it widens as rates rise.
Wealth Signal calculation
The year-over-year rate answers a different question
Real GDP in the second quarter of 2025 was 23,884.563 billion chained 2017 dollars, and 24,408.011 billion a year later: up 2.19%. Current-dollar GDP rose from $30,630.174 billion to $32,563.030 billion: up 6.31%. The annualized rate describes one quarter's pace; the year-over-year rate describes the full twelve months.
Real GDP in the second quarter of 2025 was 23,884.563 billion chained 2017 dollars, and 24,408.011 billion a year later: up 2.19%. Current-dollar GDP rose from $30,630.174 billion to $32,563.030 billion: up 6.31%. The annualized rate describes one quarter's pace; the year-over-year rate describes the full twelve months.
What it means for your money
Households earn, save and pay in current dollars. The gap between nominal and real GDP in the second quarter is the same gap every household faces between its own dollar gains and the price level.
Wealth Signal calculation
A raise below inflation is a cut in purchasing power
Take a hypothetical pay rise of 3.0% over twelve months against the 3.4% rise in the Consumer Price Index over the twelve months to August 2026 (BLS, September 11, 2026). Real change: 1.030 ÷ 1.034 = 0.9961, a loss of 0.39% in what the pay buys. The conversion is division, not subtraction.
Take a hypothetical pay rise of 3.0% over twelve months against the 3.4% rise in the Consumer Price Index over the twelve months to August 2026 (BLS, September 11, 2026). Real change: 1.030 ÷ 1.034 = 0.9961, a loss of 0.39% in what the pay buys. The conversion is division, not subtraction.
Two cautions on comparisons. The PCE price index in the GDP release (5.0%) is a quarterly figure at an annual rate; the CPI figure is a twelve-month change from a different index. They are not interchangeable. And a GDP headline that moves markets on release day can move by 0.7 points within two months, as this one did. The first estimate is a draft with a date on it.
Interpretation
The useful number is the one that matches your question
For whether the economy produced more, real GDP is the measure. For whether dollar incomes and tax receipts grew, current-dollar GDP is closer. For whether your own position improved, the relevant comparison is your own dollar gain against the price index for what you buy.
For whether the economy produced more, real GDP is the measure. For whether dollar incomes and tax receipts grew, current-dollar GDP is closer. For whether your own position improved, the relevant comparison is your own dollar gain against the price index for what you buy.
Jul 30
Advance estimate, Q2 2026: 1.5%
Aug 26
Second estimate: 1.5%, unchanged
Sep 30
Third estimate with annual update: 2.2%
Oct 29
Advance estimate, Q3 2026 (scheduled)
Nov 25
Second estimate, Q3 2026 (scheduled)
Dec 23
Third estimate, Q3 2026 (scheduled)
This piece does not claim the economy is accelerating or slowing beyond what the published estimates show, and it does not say what the third-quarter figure on October 29, 2026 will be. Every component figure is from BEA's own tables as of September 30, 2026; they can be revised again, including at the next annual update. The causes of the gap between export and import prices are not established here.
Sources
- GDP (Third Estimate), Industries, Corporate Profits, State GDP, and State Personal Income, 2nd Quarter 2026 (BEA 26-42), September 30, 2026U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Oct 4, 2026 · Primary source
- GDP (Third Estimate), 2nd Quarter 2026: full release, Real GDP and Related Measures table and Technical Note (PDF)U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Oct 4, 2026 · Primary source
- GDP (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits, 2nd Quarter 2026, August 26, 2026U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Oct 4, 2026 · Primary source
- GDP (Advance Estimate), 2nd Quarter 2026, July 30, 2026U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Oct 4, 2026 · Primary source
- GDP Price Deflator (Q2 2026, third estimate)U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Oct 4, 2026 · Primary source
- Release ScheduleU.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Oct 4, 2026 · Primary source
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP), billions of dollars, SAAR, updated Sep 30, 2026 (source: BEA)Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) · Oct 4, 2026 · Primary source
- Real Gross Domestic Product (GDPC1), billions of chained 2017 dollars, SAAR, updated Sep 30, 2026 (source: BEA)Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) · Oct 4, 2026 · Primary source
- Real Gross Domestic Product, percent change from preceding period, SAAR (A191RL1Q225SBEA), updated Sep 30, 2026 (source: BEA)Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) · Oct 4, 2026 · Primary source
- Contributions to percent change in real GDP: Personal consumption expenditures (DPCERY2Q224SBEA), table data updated Sep 30, 2026 (source: BEA)Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) · Oct 4, 2026 · Primary source
- Contributions to percent change in real GDP: PCE: Goods (DGDSRY2Q224SBEA), table data updated Sep 30, 2026 (source: BEA)Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) · Oct 4, 2026 · Primary source
- Contributions to percent change in real GDP: Gross private domestic investment (A006RY2Q224SBEA), table data updated Sep 30, 2026 (source: BEA)Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) · Oct 4, 2026 · Primary source
- Contributions to percent change in real GDP: Change in private inventories (A014RY2Q224SBEA), table data updated Sep 30, 2026 (source: BEA)Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) · Oct 4, 2026 · Primary source
- Contributions to percent change in real GDP: Net exports of goods and services (A019RY2Q224SBEA), table data updated Sep 30, 2026 (source: BEA)Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) · Oct 4, 2026 · Primary source
- Contributions to percent change in real GDP: Exports of goods and services (A020RY2Q224SBEA), table data updated Sep 30, 2026 (source: BEA)Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) · Oct 4, 2026 · Primary source
- Contributions to percent change in real GDP: Government consumption expenditures and gross investment (A822RY2Q224SBEA), vintage Sep 30, 2026 (source: BEA)Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (ALFRED) · Oct 4, 2026 · Primary source
- Contributions to percent change in real GDP: Personal consumption expenditures (DPCERY2Q224SBEA), vintage Aug 26, 2026 (source: BEA)Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (ALFRED) · Oct 4, 2026 · Primary source
- Contributions to percent change in real GDP: Gross private domestic investment (A006RY2Q224SBEA), series page as of Aug 26, 2026 update (source: BEA)Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) · Oct 4, 2026 · Primary source
- Contributions to percent change in real GDP: Net exports of goods and services (A019RY2Q224SBEA), series page as of Aug 26, 2026 update (source: BEA)Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) · Oct 4, 2026 · Primary source
- Contributions to percent change in real GDP: Government consumption expenditures and gross investment (A822RY2Q224SBEA), series page as of Aug 26, 2026 update (source: BEA)Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) · Oct 4, 2026 · Primary source
- Consumer Price Index Summary — August 2026U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Sep 11, 2026 · Primary source
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