Market Pulse
Mixed observation times, Oct 20–Oct 25, 2026 (5 days apart)
One record

Since you started: what the market did from the month you got in

Pick the month you began. The S&P 500 (SPY)'s price change from the first session of that month to Oct 26, 2026, the worst fall you sat through on the way, the number of sessions that dropped 2% or more, and the record closes you saw. Every figure is a published close against another. Historical context, not a forecast, and not a verdict on the decision.

Nothing you choose leaves your browser.

Change since
—
price only, no dividends
Worst fall along the way
—
peak to trough
Sessions down 2% or more
—
and none of 3%
Record closes you saw
—
longest stretch below a high: —

Choose a month. Without JavaScript, the table below shows every January start.

Keep this where you will see it on the next bad day

The Signal is the site's newsletter: one number, why it matters, a Market Memory item, one lesson and one tool. No advice.

Starting in January of each year: the S&P 500 (SPY) to Oct 26, 2026
StartedChange sinceWorst fall2%+ down daysRecord closes
1993+1639.8%−56.5%340724
1994+1545.0%−56.5%338711
1995+1569.7%−56.5%335716
1996+1130.2%−56.5%335631
1997+932.6%−56.5%331596
1998+683.5%−56.5%319556
1999+521.3%−56.5%305508
2000+425.6%−56.5%296481
2001+493.4%−56.5%273515
2002+561.7%−56.5%254563
2003+739.4%−56.5%221615
2004+587.2%−56.5%214575
2005+535.4%−56.5%214554
2006+503.3%−56.5%214536
2007+440.7%−56.5%214498
2008+427.4%−53.0%203486
2009+722.3%−34.1%163596
2010+574.5%−34.1%138559
2011+501.7%−34.1%128523
2012+499.6%−34.1%108520
2013+423.4%−34.1%105486
2014+317.9%−34.1%103423
2015+272.1%−34.1%100371
2016+280.3%−34.1%92376
2017+239.4%−34.1%87340
2018+184.4%−34.1%87282
2019+205.6%−34.1%73302
2020+135.3%−34.1%68229
2021+107.3%−25.4%44199
2022+60.0%−25.4%38125
2023+100.7%−19.0%15170
2024+61.7%−19.0%14128
2025+30.8%−19.0%1072
2026+11.9%−9.1%228

How to read it

The change is the easy number and the least informative one. The other three are the record of what it took to collect it: how far the pot fell from its high at the worst point, how many days ended more than 2% down, and how many times a new high was set — which is also how many times the previous fall was fully recovered. Two readers with the same change can have lived through very different records, and the one who sat through the deeper fall is the one whose result was harder to keep.

Price only: dividends, fees and tax are not in it, and neither is inflation. The series is S&P 500 (SPY) daily closes from Twelve Data, the same one behind Market Memory. For what a fall of a given size needs to recover, see loss recovery; for how rare any single day was, the Market Memory pages; for the definitions, the methodology page.

One question

Find the worst fall in your own record. What did you do that week — and would you have done it knowing the number of record closes that came after?