Net 31% of small firms raised prices in August, NFIB survey says
The NFIB Optimism Index fell to 98.7 in August 2026; September's reading is due October 13. What the index measures, who answers, and why prices matter.
- What happened
- The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 1.1 points to 98.7 in August 2026, released September 8, 2026. A seasonally adjusted net 31% of owners said they had raised selling prices, more than double the survey's historical average of net 14%.
- Why
- The index is a ten-component diffusion measure built from a mailed survey of NFIB members. Its price and hiring questions ask owners what they did and what they plan, which is why it is read as an early signal for the inflation and jobs data that follow.
- The numbers that matter
- 98.7Optimism Index, August 2026 (52-year average 98.0)Net 31%Owners who raised average selling prices, August 202623%Owners naming labor quality as their single most important problem476Usable survey responses behind the August figures
- Why it matters
- Small firms set a large share of the prices households pay. When a net third of them are still raising prices and a net 28% plan to, that is upstream of the 3.4% CPI reading, not a separate story.
- What happens nextas we saw it on 13 Oct 2026
- NFIB publishes the September 2026 survey on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, its stated second-Tuesday schedule. The BLS September CPI follows on October 14, 2026.
Finding workers still tops the list, but inflation has climbed back to a tie for second with taxes.
| Quality or availability of labor | 23.0% |
|---|---|
| Inflation | 16.0% |
| Taxes | 16.0% |
| Poor sales | 10.0% |
| Government regulation | 9.0% |
| Cost or availability of insurance | 8.0% |
The most useful line in the NFIB small business survey is not the headline index. It is the question that asks owners whether they raised their prices in the past three months. In August 2026 a seasonally adjusted net 31% said yes. The survey's historical average for that question is net 14%. Whatever the Optimism Index says about mood, the price line says that more than twice the usual share of small firms were still pushing prices up a month before the Federal Reserve raised rates again.
The September 2026 survey had not been published as of October 12, 2026. NFIB releases the report on the second Tuesday of each month, which puts the September reading on Tuesday, October 13, 2026. Everything below describes the August 2026 survey, released on September 8, 2026, and explains what to look for when the next one lands.
What the August survey said
NFIB's Small Business Optimism Index was 98.7 in August 2026, down 1.1 points from 99.8 in July. July had been the highest reading since August 2025. The index remains above its 52-year average of 98.0. The release is dated September 8, 2026, and the survey was fielded in August 2026.
The largest single drag was the share of owners expecting the economy to improve, which fell 5 points to a net 10%. Plans to increase employment and the earnings-trend reading each fell 3 points. Expected credit conditions rose 2 points to net −2%, the highest since December 2024, and the share saying inventories are too low rose 1 point to net −1%.
NFIB publishes a separate Uncertainty Index alongside the headline. At 89 in August 2026 it is 21 points above its historical average of 68. NFIB's chief economist Bill Dunkelberg wrote that “uncertainty remains elevated among small business owners as they face a mixed set of challenges”.
| Component | August 2026 | Change from July |
|---|---|---|
| Plans to increase employment (net) | 17% | −3 |
| Plans to make capital outlays | 24% | −1 |
| Plans to increase inventories (net) | 1% | 0 |
| Expect economy to improve (net) | 10% | −5 |
| Expect real sales higher (net) | 6% | −1 |
| Current inventory too low (net) | −1% | +1 |
| Current job openings | 35% | −1 |
| Expected credit conditions (net) | −2% | +2 |
| Good time to expand | 12% | 0 |
| Earnings trends (net) | −19% | −3 |
Who is answering, and how the index is built
The survey's limits are printed in the report itself, which is more than most private surveys manage. The August report states that questionnaires went to 5,000 NFIB members and that 476 usable responses came back, a response rate of 9.5%.
476 ÷ 5,000 = 0.0952, or 9.5%, matching the figure NFIB prints. Four hundred and seventy-six firms is a small sample for a national measure, which is one reason NFIB seasonally adjusts the series and reports net balances rather than raw levels. Month-to-month moves of a point or two are inside the noise of a sample that size.
Each of the ten questions in the table above produces a net balance. NFIB combines them into a single index scaled so that 1986 equals 100. A reading above the 52-year average of 98.0 means owners are, on balance, slightly more positive than the long-run norm. It does not measure output, revenue or employment; it measures answers.
Respondents are drawn from NFIB's membership, not from all US small businesses. That does not make the numbers wrong, but it means the survey describes the slice of Main Street that belongs to one organization, and comparisons over time within the survey are more reliable than comparisons with other surveys.
Prices: what owners did and what they plan
Seasonally adjusted, a net 31% of owners reported raising average selling prices in August 2026, unchanged from July. The historical average is net 14%. Unadjusted, 38% reported higher prices and 8% reported lower. A net 28% plan to raise prices over the following three months, also unchanged, against a historical average of net 22%.
The share of owners naming inflation as their top problem was 16% in August 2026, up 2 points from July and tied with taxes for second place. The same reading was 11% in August 2025 and the series' historical average is 7%. In June 2026 it had reached 21%, the highest since October 2024, before easing in July.
Actual: 31 − 14 = 17 points above the historical average. Planned: 28 − 22 = 6 points above. The gap between the two is the part worth watching on October 13. Price plans sit much closer to normal than price actions, which is consistent with owners having pushed through cost increases and now finding less room to do it again.
The CPI rose 3.4% in the 12 months to August 2026, with a 0.4% rise on the month. The NFIB price question asks the firms doing the charging. When a net 31% of them say prices went up, that is the supply side of the same number. It is not a prediction of the September CPI; it is evidence about the pressure behind it.
Hiring, sales and credit
Seasonally adjusted, a net 17% of owners planned to add jobs over the following three months, down from net 20% in July. The share with unfilled openings was 35%, down 1 point but 11 points above the historical average. Of all owners, 56% were hiring or trying to hire, down 5 points, and 47% reported few or no qualified applicants.
The quality or availability of labor was named by 23% of owners as their single most important problem, down 4 points from July and 11 points above the series average of 12%. Labor costs were named by 7%, the lowest since March 2021. A net 31% had raised compensation and a net 18% planned to, both above their historical averages.
Set against the official data, this is a survey saying that small firms still find hiring hard but are less inclined to try. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported payrolls up 162,000 in August 2026 with unemployment at 4.1%. The two pictures are not in conflict: a tight market for the workers small firms want can coexist with slowing hiring plans.
A net −9% of owners reported higher nominal sales over the previous three months, down 5 points and the lowest since November 2025. A net 6% expected higher real sales in the following quarter. The earnings-trend balance was net −19%. Among owners reporting lower profits, 28% blamed weaker sales and 16% blamed the cost of materials.
Owners reported an average interest rate of 7.5% on short-maturity loans in August 2026, down 0.4 points from July. Only 25% said they borrow regularly, against a historical average of 34%. A net 3% said their last loan was harder to get. These figures predate the Federal Open Market Committee's decision on September 16, 2026, to raise the target range to 3.75%–4.00%.
What it means for your money
Two of the survey's lines reach a household budget directly. The first is prices. Small firms are the restaurant, the plumber, the dentist and the landscaper, and when a net 31% of them say they raised prices in a quarter, that shows up in the services part of the CPI that has been the slowest to cool. The second is wages: a net 31% raised compensation, which for anyone employed by a small firm is the other side of the same ledger. The wage growth question is whether pay kept up with the 3.4% rise in prices over the 12 months to August 2026.
A $50,000 short-maturity loan at the survey's reported 7.5% average rate costs 50,000 × 0.075 = $3,750 a year in interest before any repayment of principal, or $312.50 a month. At the 7.9% owners reported in July (7.5% + 0.4), the same loan cost $3,950 a year. The 0.4-point fall was worth $200 a year on that loan. This is an illustration using the survey's average, not a quote.
For anyone who owns a small business, or works for one, the survey is also a check on how unusual the moment is. Uncertainty at 89 against an average of 68, openings 11 points above normal, inflation named by more than twice its usual share of owners: these are readings far from the long-run average even though the headline index is 0.7 points above it. The index averages across ten questions, and the average hides the spread.
What to read on October 13
- The price lines first. Actual price increases (net 31% in August) and price plans (net 28%). A move in plans towards the net 22% average would say more than a move in the headline index.
- Hiring plans. Net 17% in August, after net 20% in July. A second fall would show the slowdown was not a single month.
- The single most important problem. Labor quality at 23%, inflation and taxes at 16%. Whether inflation takes outright second place.
- The sample. The response count is printed in the PDF report. August's 476 is the denominator for every percentage in the report.
The September report lands one day before the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the September 2026 CPI on October 14, 2026. The two are worth reading together: one asks firms what they charged, the other measures what households paid.
Sources
- NEW NFIB SURVEY: Main Street Optimism Cools in August but Holds Above Long-Term Average (September 8, 2026)NFIB · Oct 12, 2026 · Primary source
- NFIB Small Business Economic Trends, August 2026 (report PDF)NFIB · Oct 12, 2026 · Primary source
- Small Business Optimism Index: Small Business Economic Trends, August 2026 (monthly report page)NFIB · Oct 12, 2026 · Primary source
- NFIB Jobs Report: Main Street Employment Softens in August (September 3, 2026)NFIB · Oct 12, 2026 · Primary source
- NEW NFIB SURVEY: Small Business Optimism Continues to Rise (August 11, 2026, July 2026 survey)NFIB · Oct 12, 2026 · Primary source
- Consumer Price Index Summary — August 2026U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Sep 11, 2026 · Primary source
- The Employment Situation — August 2026U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Sep 4, 2026 · Primary source
- FOMC statement, September 16, 2026Federal Reserve Board · Sep 16, 2026 · Primary source
- Schedule of release dates for principal economic indicatorsU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · 2026 · Primary source
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