The $954bn-a-quarter table the Treasury resets on November 4
The refunding statement is scheduled for November 4, 2026. What it decides: coupon auction sizes by tenor, the “several quarters” guidance, buybacks, bills.
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- What happened
- The Treasury is scheduled to publish its marketable borrowing estimate at 3:00 PM on Monday, November 2, 2026 and its quarterly refunding statement at 8:30 AM on Wednesday, November 4, 2026. The August 5, 2026 statement set nominal coupon auctions at $954 billion for the August to October quarter, the same monthly pattern as every quarter since at least August 2025, and repeated that sizes are expected to hold “for at least the next several quarters”.
- Why
- The refunding is where the Treasury decides how much of the deficit is borrowed at each maturity. Coupon sizes are set a quarter at a time with forward guidance; bills absorb whatever is left; a buyback programme recycles old issues. A $2 billion change to one auction moves the whole year's calendar.
- The numbers that matter
- $954bnNominal coupon auctions, August to October 2026, per the August 5 statement (site calculation)$739bnPrivately held net marketable borrowing estimate, July to September 2026 (August 3, 2026)$628bnBorrowing estimate, October to December 2026, assuming $850bn cash at end-December$38bnLiquidity-support buybacks the Treasury said it may do in the August to October quarter
- Why it matters
- These sizes set the supply of the safest bond in the world at each maturity, which feeds the 10-year yield that mortgage rates and savings yields are priced off. The 10-year sold at 5.300% on October 7, 2026.
- What happens next
- Borrowing estimate on November 2, 2026 at 3:00 PM; refunding statement, TBAC report and minutes on November 4, 2026 at 8:30 AM; the next primary-dealer agenda is scheduled for January 15, 2027.
Treasury refunding
The 2-, 3- and 5-year notes carry $591 billion of the $954 billion quarter; the 10-year is $120 billion.
| 5-year note | 210.0 |
|---|---|
| 2-year note | 207.0 |
| 3-year note | 174.0 |
| 7-year note | 132.0 |
| 10-year note | 120.0 |
| 20- and 30-year bonds | 111.0 |
US$ billions, three monthly auctions per tenor, per the August 5, 2026 refunding statementSource: US Treasury, Quarterly Refunding Statement, August 5, 2026; sums are this site's calculation
Go deeper
Every three months the US Treasury publishes a one-page table that says how much it intends to borrow at each maturity for the next three months. The table has not changed since at least August 2025. The August 5, 2026 version lists the same monthly sizes as the February 4, 2026 version, the November 5, 2025 version and the actual auctions of August to October 2025: $69 billion of 2-year notes, $58 billion of 3-year, $70 billion of 5-year, and so on down the curve. Added up, that is $954 billion of nominal coupon auctions a quarter, five quarters running.
The next version is scheduled for 8:30 AM on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, two days after the marketable borrowing estimate scheduled for 3:00 PM on Monday, November 2. This piece explains what those two releases decide and what the August ones said. It is not a prediction of what the November ones say.
What the refunding decides
The Treasury's own description is short: “Changes in debt management policy are generally informed by and communicated through the quarterly refunding process near the middle of each calendar quarter.” In practice the statement settles five things.
- Coupon auction sizes by tenor for the three months ahead: 2-, 3-, 5-, 7-, 10-, 20- and 30-year nominals, the 2-year floating-rate note (FRN), and 5-, 10- and 30-year TIPS.
- Forward guidance: one sentence on how long the sizes are expected to hold.
- Buybacks: how much off-the-run debt the Treasury may purchase, in which maturity buckets, for which of two purposes.
- Bills: the short-dated paper that absorbs whatever the coupon calendar does not cover.
- The cash balance assumption under the borrowing estimate.
The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) advises on all of it. The Treasury describes TBAC as “an advisory committee governed by federal statute” that “meets quarterly with the Treasury Department”, drawn from “banks, broker-dealers, asset managers, hedge funds, and insurance companies”. Its report and minutes are published with the statement. Primary dealers are polled separately: the November agenda, released October 16, 2026, asked for responses “prior to 12:00 PM on Monday, October 26, 2026” ahead of dealer meetings on October 29 and 30.
The August 2026 statement, line by line
Data
The Treasury offered $125 billion to refund $96.3 billion and raise $28.7 billion of new cash
The statement of August 5, 2026 opens: the Treasury “is offering $125 billion of Treasury securities to refund approximately $96.3 billion of privately-held Treasury notes and bonds maturing on August 15, 2026”, raising “new cash from private investors of approximately $28.7 billion.” The $125 billion was the 3-year note at $58 billion, the 10-year at $42 billion and the 30-year at $25 billion, auctioned August 11 to 13 and settling August 17, 2026.
The statement of August 5, 2026 opens: the Treasury “is offering $125 billion of Treasury securities to refund approximately $96.3 billion of privately-held Treasury notes and bonds maturing on August 15, 2026”, raising “new cash from private investors of approximately $28.7 billion.” The $125 billion was the 3-year note at $58 billion, the 10-year at $42 billion and the 30-year at $25 billion, auctioned August 11 to 13 and settling August 17, 2026.
| Month | 2-yr | 3-yr | 5-yr | 7-yr | 10-yr | 20-yr | 30-yr | FRN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 (actual) | 69 | 58 | 70 | 44 | 42 | 16 | 25 | 28 |
| Jun 2026 (actual) | 69 | 58 | 70 | 44 | 39 | 13 | 22 | 28 |
| Jul 2026 (actual) | 69 | 58 | 70 | 44 | 39 | 13 | 22 | 30 |
| Aug 2026 (anticipated) | 69 | 58 | 70 | 44 | 42 | 16 | 25 | 28 |
| Sep 2026 (anticipated) | 69 | 58 | 70 | 44 | 39 | 13 | 22 | 28 |
| Oct 2026 (anticipated) | 69 | 58 | 70 | 44 | 39 | 13 | 22 | 30 |
Source: US Treasury, Quarterly Refunding Statement, August 5, 2026. The 10-, 20- and 30-year are larger in the first month of each quarter because that month is a new issue; the next two are reopenings of the same security.
Wealth Signal calculation
The quarter's nominal coupon issuance is $954 billion; with FRNs and TIPS it is $1,093 billion
August: 69 + 58 + 70 + 44 + 42 + 16 + 25 = $324 billion. September and October: 69 + 58 + 70 + 44 + 39 + 13 + 22 = $315 billion each. Nominal coupons: 324 + 315 + 315 = $954 billion. FRNs add 28 + 28 + 30 = $86 billion. TIPS, set at $8 billion for the August 30-year reopening, $19 billion for the September 10-year reopening and $26 billion for the October 5-year new issue, add $53 billion. Total: 954 + 86 + 53 = $1,093 billion, gross, before the Federal Reserve's add-ons and before maturing debt is netted off.
August: 69 + 58 + 70 + 44 + 42 + 16 + 25 = $324 billion. September and October: 69 + 58 + 70 + 44 + 39 + 13 + 22 = $315 billion each. Nominal coupons: 324 + 315 + 315 = $954 billion. FRNs add 28 + 28 + 30 = $86 billion. TIPS, set at $8 billion for the August 30-year reopening, $19 billion for the September 10-year reopening and $26 billion for the October 5-year new issue, add $53 billion. Total: 954 + 86 + 53 = $1,093 billion, gross, before the Federal Reserve's add-ons and before maturing debt is netted off.
Wealth Signal calculation
Where the money is borrowed: $591 billion of the $954 billion matures within five years
By tenor over the quarter: 2-year 3 × 69 = $207 billion; 3-year 3 × 58 = $174 billion; 5-year 3 × 70 = $210 billion; 7-year 3 × 44 = $132 billion; 10-year 42 + 39 + 39 = $120 billion; 20-year 16 + 13 + 13 = $42 billion; 30-year 25 + 22 + 22 = $69 billion. The 2-, 3- and 5-year are $591 billion, 62% of the total. The 10-year, the benchmark mortgage rates are priced off, is 12.6%.
By tenor over the quarter: 2-year 3 × 69 = $207 billion; 3-year 3 × 58 = $174 billion; 5-year 3 × 70 = $210 billion; 7-year 3 × 44 = $132 billion; 10-year 42 + 39 + 39 = $120 billion; 20-year 16 + 13 + 13 = $42 billion; 30-year 25 + 22 + 22 = $69 billion. The 2-, 3- and 5-year are $591 billion, 62% of the total. The 10-year, the benchmark mortgage rates are priced off, is 12.6%.
Fact
The guidance sentence has been identical in the last four statements
August 5, 2026: “Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters.” The May 6, 2026, February 4, 2026 and November 5, 2025 statements carry the same sentence. The TBAC minutes of August 2026 record the committee's view that it would “expect Treasury to modify its forward guidance several quarters ahead of such a change” and that “nominal coupon auction sizes will next increase sometime in 2027”. That is TBAC's expectation, not a Treasury commitment.
August 5, 2026: “Treasury anticipates maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters.” The May 6, 2026, February 4, 2026 and November 5, 2025 statements carry the same sentence. The TBAC minutes of August 2026 record the committee's view that it would “expect Treasury to modify its forward guidance several quarters ahead of such a change” and that “nominal coupon auction sizes will next increase sometime in 2027”. That is TBAC's expectation, not a Treasury commitment.
On issuance, the Committee recommended keeping nominal coupon, FRN, and TIPS auction sizes unchanged. The Committee continues to believe that current projections could warrant increases in coupon issuance in FY27.TBAC report to the Secretary of the Treasury, dated August 4, 2026, published August 5, 2026
The borrowing estimate: $739 billion, then $628 billion
The Monday release is the arithmetic the Wednesday release has to finance: how much the Treasury expects to borrow from private investors in the current quarter and the next, and the cash balance assumed at the end of each.
Data
July to September 2026: $739 billion; October to December 2026: $628 billion
The August 3, 2026 release says: “During the July–September 2026 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $739 billion in privately-held net marketable debt”, assuming end-September cash of $950 billion, and that “The borrowing estimate is $68 billion higher than announced in May 2026, primarily due to lower projected net cash flows.” For October to December 2026 it “expects to borrow $628 billion”, assuming $850 billion of cash at end-December. For April to June 2026 the Treasury “borrowed $190 billion”, $1 billion above the May estimate, ending with $919 billion of cash.
The August 3, 2026 release says: “During the July–September 2026 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $739 billion in privately-held net marketable debt”, assuming end-September cash of $950 billion, and that “The borrowing estimate is $68 billion higher than announced in May 2026, primarily due to lower projected net cash flows.” For October to December 2026 it “expects to borrow $628 billion”, assuming $850 billion of cash at end-December. For April to June 2026 the Treasury “borrowed $190 billion”, $1 billion above the May estimate, ending with $919 billion of cash.
Wealth Signal calculation
The cash balance moved the July to September estimate by $19 billion on its own
The release's table: the April to June closing balance was $919 billion against an assumed $900 billion, which cut the July to September cash-balance impact from $50 billion to $31 billion. Without that effect the estimate would have been $87 billion above May's rather than $68 billion. A reader comparing the November 2 figure against $628 billion can check the end-December cash assumption first: a $50 billion change there is a $50 billion change in borrowing with no change in the deficit.
The release's table: the April to June closing balance was $919 billion against an assumed $900 billion, which cut the July to September cash-balance impact from $50 billion to $31 billion. Without that effect the estimate would have been $87 billion above May's rather than $68 billion. A reader comparing the November 2 figure against $628 billion can check the end-December cash assumption first: a $50 billion change there is a $50 billion change in borrowing with no change in the deficit.
$739bn
Net marketable borrowing estimate, Jul to Sep 2026
August 3, 2026 release; $950bn end-September cash
$628bn
Net marketable borrowing estimate, Oct to Dec 2026
August 3, 2026 release; $850bn end-December cash
$1.05trn
Possible TGA peak in late October 2026
Statement of August 5, 2026, plus or minus $50bn
Gross and net differ. The $1,093 billion of coupon-type auctions is gross issuance; the $739 billion is net borrowing after maturing debt is repaid, and it includes bills. Bills and the cash balance absorb the gap.
Bills and buybacks: the two valves
Data
Bills: sizes held, cut in September around the tax date, raised again in October
The August statement said the Treasury “expects to maintain current auction sizes in benchmark bills in the coming weeks”, “expects to implement reductions to shorter-dated bill auction sizes during the month of September” around the corporate tax date, and that “In October, Treasury anticipates increasing auction sizes across the bill curve based on expected seasonal fiscal outflows.” The Treasury's presentation to TBAC for the same meeting assumed that “Treasury maintains T-bills share constant at 22.2% as of 7/31/2026”, against marketable debt of $31.4 trillion at July 29, 2026.
The August statement said the Treasury “expects to maintain current auction sizes in benchmark bills in the coming weeks”, “expects to implement reductions to shorter-dated bill auction sizes during the month of September” around the corporate tax date, and that “In October, Treasury anticipates increasing auction sizes across the bill curve based on expected seasonal fiscal outflows.” The Treasury's presentation to TBAC for the same meeting assumed that “Treasury maintains T-bills share constant at 22.2% as of 7/31/2026”, against marketable debt of $31.4 trillion at July 29, 2026.
Data
Buybacks: up to $38 billion for liquidity support and $25 billion for cash management, then a change on August 19
The statement said the Treasury “will purchase up to $38 billion in off-the-run securities across buckets for liquidity support” and “up to $25 billion in the 1-month to 2-year maturity bucket for cash management purposes”. The tentative schedule lists two cash-management operations of $12.5 billion each, on September 3 and September 9, 2026, and liquidity operations by bucket out to 20-to-30-year. On August 19, 2026 the Treasury announced that for the 10-to-20-year and 20-to-30-year sectors “The current maximum size of $2 billion per operation will be at least $4 billion per operation”, effective September 9, 2026 “through November 4, 2026”, citing its “desire to provide greater liquidity support in longer-dated nominal sectors”. It said more on future buyback sizes would come at the November 4 refunding.
The statement said the Treasury “will purchase up to $38 billion in off-the-run securities across buckets for liquidity support” and “up to $25 billion in the 1-month to 2-year maturity bucket for cash management purposes”. The tentative schedule lists two cash-management operations of $12.5 billion each, on September 3 and September 9, 2026, and liquidity operations by bucket out to 20-to-30-year. On August 19, 2026 the Treasury announced that for the 10-to-20-year and 20-to-30-year sectors “The current maximum size of $2 billion per operation will be at least $4 billion per operation”, effective September 9, 2026 “through November 4, 2026”, citing its “desire to provide greater liquidity support in longer-dated nominal sectors”. It said more on future buyback sizes would come at the November 4 refunding.
Interpretation
The three things to read on November 4, in order
First, the table: any cell that differs from the pattern above is a decision. Second, the guidance sentence: TBAC expects the wording to change “several quarters ahead” of any size increase, so a changed sentence with an unchanged table is itself news. Third, the buyback paragraph: the August 19 change runs out on November 4. The November dealer agenda asked about “larger longer-dated buybacks” and “structural demand”; that shows what was discussed, not what was decided.
First, the table: any cell that differs from the pattern above is a decision. Second, the guidance sentence: TBAC expects the wording to change “several quarters ahead” of any size increase, so a changed sentence with an unchanged table is itself news. Third, the buyback paragraph: the August 19 change runs out on November 4. The November dealer agenda asked about “larger longer-dated buybacks” and “structural demand”; that shows what was discussed, not what was decided.
What it means for your money
The refunding does not set interest rates. It sets how much new debt arrives at each maturity; the price is found at auction. The site's auction explainer covers the mechanism; the October results are in the piece on the 10-year at 5.300%. Two pieces of arithmetic connect the table to a household.
Wealth Signal calculation
A $2 billion increase to each 10-year auction adds $6 billion a quarter, and $318 million a year of interest at 5.300%
The 10-year calendar is $42 billion + $39 billion + $39 billion = $120 billion a quarter. Raising each auction by $2 billion gives $44 + $41 + $41 = $126 billion, an extra $6 billion a quarter. At the October 7, 2026 auction yield of 5.300%, $6 billion costs 6 × 0.053 = $318 million a year in interest for ten years; four such quarters cost $1.27 billion a year. A number that looks small in the table is large in dollars.
The 10-year calendar is $42 billion + $39 billion + $39 billion = $120 billion a quarter. Raising each auction by $2 billion gives $44 + $41 + $41 = $126 billion, an extra $6 billion a quarter. At the October 7, 2026 auction yield of 5.300%, $6 billion costs 6 × 0.053 = $318 million a year in interest for ten years; four such quarters cost $1.27 billion a year. A number that looks small in the table is large in dollars.
Wealth Signal calculation
The quarter's $120 billion of 10-year notes costs $6.36 billion a year at 5.300%, or $6.00 billion at 5.00%
120 × 0.053 = $6.36 billion a year, for ten years, if all three auctions cleared at the October 7 high yield of 5.300%. At the 10-year par yield of 5.00% on the Treasury's daily curve for October 26, 2026, the same $120 billion costs 120 × 0.05 = $6.00 billion. The 30 basis point difference is $360 million a year on one tenor in one quarter. (The cash coupon on the note reopened in September and October was 4.625%; the rest of the yield is the discount at issue.)
120 × 0.053 = $6.36 billion a year, for ten years, if all three auctions cleared at the October 7 high yield of 5.300%. At the 10-year par yield of 5.00% on the Treasury's daily curve for October 26, 2026, the same $120 billion costs 120 × 0.05 = $6.00 billion. The 30 basis point difference is $360 million a year on one tenor in one quarter. (The cash coupon on the note reopened in September and October was 4.625%; the rest of the yield is the discount at issue.)
- For a saver: the 2-, 3- and 5-year notes are $591 billion of the quarter, the part of the curve where a household buying at TreasuryDirect gets the same yield as the largest bank.
- For a borrower: the 10-year is $120 billion a quarter and is the reference for 30-year mortgage pricing; mortgage rates were 7.40% in the week of October 15, 2026.
- For a taxpayer: the interest bill on $31.4 trillion of marketable debt is reset one auction at a time. The federal dollar piece shows where interest sits in outlays.
The yield curve on October 26, 2026 ran from 4.11% at one month to 5.31% at thirty years; the refunding chooses where on that curve the next $954 billion is borrowed.
The November calendar
Oct 26, 2026
Primary-dealer responses to the Treasury's November agenda due by 12:00 PM
Oct 29–30, 2026
Treasury meetings with primary dealers
Nov 2, 2026
Marketable borrowing estimates, scheduled for 3:00 PM
Nov 4, 2026
Refunding statement, TBAC report and minutes, scheduled for 8:30 AM; last day of the enlarged long-end buyback sizes announced August 19
Jan 15, 2027
Next primary-dealer agenda, per the Treasury's documents page
This piece explains what the November 2 and November 4, 2026 releases decide and records what the August 2026 releases said. It does not claim what the November releases contain, does not treat TBAC's expectation of a 2027 size increase as a Treasury decision, and offers no view on yields. All auction sizes are from the Treasury's refunding statements of November 5, 2025, February 4, May 6 and August 5, 2026; borrowing figures are from the August 3, 2026 estimate; the 5.300% is the TreasuryDirect high yield for the October 7, 2026 10-year reopening as recorded in the site's October 12 piece; the 5.00% and 5.31% are the Treasury's par yield curve for October 26, 2026. Quarterly totals, tenor sums and interest figures are this site's calculations from those inputs.
Sources
- Treasury Announces Quarterly Refunding Statement (Policy Statement, 2026 3rd Quarter), August 5, 2026US Department of the Treasury · Oct 27, 2026 · Primary source
- Treasury Announces Marketable Borrowing Estimates, August 3, 2026US Department of the Treasury · Oct 27, 2026 · Primary source
- Report to the Secretary of the Treasury from the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, dated August 4, 2026, published August 5, 2026US Department of the Treasury / TBAC · Oct 27, 2026 · Primary source
- Minutes of the Meeting of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, August 2026 (published August 5, 2026)US Department of the Treasury / TBAC · Oct 27, 2026 · Primary source
- Treasury Announces Increased Sizes of Nominal Long-End Liquidity Support Buybacks Beginning September 9, August 19, 2026US Department of the Treasury · Oct 27, 2026 · Primary source
- Tentative Buyback Schedule, August 2026 refunding quarter (updated September 9, 2026)US Department of the Treasury · Oct 27, 2026 · Primary source
- Most Recent Quarterly Refunding Documents (release times and scheduled dates of November 2 and November 4, 2026)US Department of the Treasury · Oct 27, 2026 · Primary source
- Quarterly Refunding (overview page)US Department of the Treasury · Oct 27, 2026 · Primary source
- Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC)US Department of the Treasury · Oct 27, 2026 · Primary source
- Primary Dealer Meeting Agenda, November 2026 Refunding (released October 16, 2026)US Department of the Treasury · Oct 27, 2026 · Primary source
- Treasury Presentation to TBAC, 2026 3rd Quarter (August 5, 2026)US Department of the Treasury, Office of Debt Management · Oct 27, 2026 · Primary source
- Treasury Announces Quarterly Refunding Statement, May 6, 2026US Department of the Treasury · Oct 27, 2026 · Primary source
- Treasury Announces Quarterly Refunding Statement, February 4, 2026US Department of the Treasury · Oct 27, 2026 · Primary source
- Treasury Announces Quarterly Refunding Statement, November 5, 2025US Department of the Treasury · Oct 27, 2026 · Primary source
- Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, October 2026 (through October 26, 2026)US Department of the Treasury · Oct 27, 2026 · Primary source
- Auction results data service: 10-year note reopening of October 7, 2026, high yield 5.300% (as retrieved for the site's piece of October 12, 2026)TreasuryDirect, Bureau of the Fiscal Service, US Treasury · Oct 12, 2026 · Primary source
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