At 7.40%, the 30-year mortgage is up 64 basis points in four weeks
Freddie Mac's October 8, 2026 survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.40%, the highest of 2026: $135.80 more a month on a median new home than four weeks earlier.
- What happened
- Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey released on October 8, 2026 put the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.40%, up from 7.28% in the week of October 1 and from 6.76% in the week of September 10. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.73%. Both are the highest readings of 2026.
- Why
- The rate on a 30-year mortgage is built on the 10-year Treasury yield plus a spread. The 10-year par yield rose from 4.79% on September 1, 2026 to 5.28% on October 7, 2026 on the Treasury's own daily curve, and the spread over it widened from 1.92 to 2.12 percentage points.
- The numbers that matter
- 7.40%30-year fixed, PMMS week of October 8, 2026+0.64 ptsChange over four weeks, from 6.76% on September 106.73%15-year fixed, same week$2,180.72Principal and interest on the median new home, 20% down, at 7.40%
- Why it matters
- Each 0.25 point on the rate adds roughly $53 a month to the payment on a $314,960 loan. The four-week move added $135.80 a month, or $48,888 over the 360 payments of the loan.
- What happens nextas we saw it on 13 Oct 2026
- Freddie Mac publishes the next survey on Thursday, October 15, 2026 at noon Eastern. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the September 2026 CPI on October 14, 2026, the day before.
Six consecutive weekly rises took the 30-year rate from 6.66% to 7.40%, the highest of 2026.
| Sep 3 | 6.7% |
|---|---|
| Sep 10 | 6.8% |
| Sep 17 | 7.0% |
| Sep 24 | 7.0% |
| Oct 1 | 7.3% |
| Oct 8 | 7.4% |
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate has risen in each of the six weekly surveys Freddie Mac published between September 3 and October 8, 2026. The move since the September 3 survey is 0.69 percentage points, 0.64 of them in the four weeks to October 8. Over the same span the Federal Reserve raised its target range once, by a quarter point, on September 16, 2026. The mortgage market has moved more than the central bank.
This piece sets out what Freddie Mac measured, what the Treasury market did underneath it, and what the arithmetic looks like on the one house price the Census Bureau publishes every month.
What Freddie Mac published on October 8
Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, released on October 8, 2026, put the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 7.40%, up from 7.28% in the week of October 1. A year earlier, in the survey of October 9, 2025, it was 6.30%. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.73%, up from 6.60% a week earlier and from 5.53% a year earlier. The survey's 2026 archive shows the year's low for the 30-year was 5.98% in the week of February 26, 2026.
| Week (published) | 30-year fixed | Weekly change | 15-year fixed | Weekly change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 27 | 6.66% | +0.01 | 5.98% | +0.03 |
| Sep 3 | 6.71% | +0.05 | 6.04% | +0.06 |
| Sep 10 | 6.76% | +0.05 | 6.09% | +0.05 |
| Sep 17 | 6.95% | +0.19 | 6.26% | +0.17 |
| Sep 24 | 7.03% | +0.08 | 6.42% | +0.16 |
| Oct 1 | 7.28% | +0.25 | 6.60% | +0.18 |
| Oct 8 | 7.40% | +0.12 | 6.73% | +0.13 |
The survey is not a poll of lenders' advertised rates. Since November 17, 2022, Freddie Mac has built it from the rates on actual purchase applications submitted through its Loan Product Advisor system by banks, credit unions and mortgage companies. The borrower profile is fixed: a conventional, conforming loan on an owner-occupied single-family home, 20% down, good or excellent credit. Each week's figure is the average of applications received from 12:00 a.m. Eastern on Thursday to 11:59 p.m. on Wednesday, published at noon the following Thursday. So the 7.40% describes applications made between October 1 and October 7, 2026, not quotes on October 8.
Freddie Mac stopped publishing average fees and points in November 2022 because the application data does not always include them. A rate of 7.40% is therefore a note rate, not an annual percentage rate, and a borrower paying points would see a lower note rate with a higher upfront cost. The two are not comparable without the fee.
As market conditions continue to evolve, borrowers should remember that shopping around for a mortgage rate and getting multiple quotes can potentially save them thousandsSam Khater, Chief Economist, Freddie Mac, news release of October 8, 2026
What moved underneath: the 10-year yield
A 30-year mortgage is priced off the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, because the average mortgage is paid off or refinanced long before 30 years, and investors who buy mortgage bonds compare them with Treasuries of similar expected life. The mechanism is set out in mortgage-rate-spread and the glossary entry on mortgages; the figures below are the October update.
The Treasury's daily par yield curve shows the 10-year at 4.79% on September 1, 2026, 5.00% on September 15 (the day before the FOMC decision), 5.29% on September 30 and 5.28% on October 7, the last day of the applications window for the 7.40% survey. On October 8 it closed at 5.22% and on October 9 at 5.24%. The 2-year yield went from 4.39% to 4.77% over the same September 1 to October 7 span; the 30-year bond from 5.27% to 5.67%.
Subtracting the 10-year yield on the Wednesday that closes each survey window from that week's 30-year rate: September 3 survey, 6.71% − 4.79% (September 2) = 1.92 points. September 17 survey, 6.95% − 5.01% (September 16) = 1.94. October 8 survey, 7.40% − 5.28% (October 7) = 2.12. Of the 0.69-point rise in the mortgage rate since September 3, 0.49 came from the Treasury yield and 0.20 from the spread. Averaging the 10-year over all five trading days of the October window (5.24, 5.28, 5.31, 5.27, 5.28) gives 5.28%, so the choice of day does not change the result.
The FOMC raised the target range to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, 2026, a 0.25 point move. The 10-year yield rose 0.49 points and the mortgage rate 0.69 points over a window that brackets that decision. Long rates are set by investors' expectations of inflation and policy over a decade, not by the overnight rate, and the 12-month CPI for August 2026, released September 11, 2026, was 3.4%. We cannot say from these figures how much of the rise is an inflation expectation, how much a term premium, and how much supply; breakeven-inflation-what-treasuries-price-in sets out how to separate the first of those.
The arithmetic on a median new home
The Census Bureau and HUD reported on September 24, 2026 that the median sales price of a new single-family house sold in August 2026 was $393,700. With 20% down, the loan is $314,960. The payment formula is the standard amortisation: monthly payment = L × i ÷ (1 − (1 + i)^−n), where L is the loan, i the annual rate divided by 12, and n the number of payments. Every figure in the table below is that formula with the stated inputs, and none includes taxes, insurance or mortgage insurance.
| Survey week | 30-year rate | Monthly P&I | Per $100,000 | Interest over 360 payments |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | 6.30% | $1,949.52 | $618.97 | $386,866 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | 6.76% | $2,044.92 | $649.26 | $421,211 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | 6.95% | $2,084.87 | $661.95 | $435,594 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | 7.28% | $2,155.00 | $684.21 | $460,838 |
| Oct 8, 2026 | 7.40% | $2,180.72 | $692.38 | $470,099 |
At 7.40% the payment is $2,180.72. At 6.76%, the rate in the survey of September 10, 2026, it was $2,044.92. The difference is $135.80 a month, $1,629.61 a year and $48,888 over 360 payments. Against the year-earlier rate of 6.30% the difference is $231.20 a month and $83,233 over the life of the loan. Per $100,000 borrowed, the move from 6.76% to 7.40% costs $43.12 a month.
The same $314,960 at the 15-year rate of 6.73% over 180 payments comes to $2,783.62 a month, $602.90 above the 30-year payment at 7.40%. Total interest is $186,092 against $470,099 on the 30-year loan, a difference of $284,007. The 15-year loan is cheaper in total and dearer each month; which one a household can carry is a cash-flow question, not a rate question.
The median price itself has a wide error bar. Census puts the August 2026 median 0.4% (±7.4%) above July and 5.8% (±8.2%) below August 2025, and marks both changes as not statistically different from zero. The ratio of payment to income on this price is worked through in the affordability piece at the September 17 rate of 6.95%; at 7.40% the principal-and-interest line in that calculation is $95.85 a month higher.
What it means for your money
A mortgage rate is a price for time. At 7.40% the first monthly payment on $314,960 is $2,180.72, of which $1,942.25 is interest (314,960 × 0.074 ÷ 12) and $238.47 is principal. At 6.30% the first payment was $1,949.52, with $1,653.54 of interest and $295.98 of principal. The higher rate means a higher payment that builds equity more slowly: in the first month the borrower pays $231.20 more and owns $57.51 less of the house.
- Buyers with a rate lock are holding something worth $135.80 a month, if the lock was set four weeks earlier at 6.76%. Locks have expiry dates; the date matters more than the rate.
- Buyers without a lock are quoted off the Treasury market on the day, not off the Thursday survey. The survey is a week-old average of applications, which is why it lags both rises and falls.
- Existing borrowers at fixed rates are unaffected by any of this. A loan at 6.30% from October 2025 costs the same $1,949.52 a month as it did on day one; the rise in new-loan rates changes the cost of moving, not of staying.
- Anyone comparing 15-year and 30-year should compare the monthly difference of $602.90 against what that cash would otherwise do; pay-down-mortgage-or-invest sets out that arithmetic.
- Renters see the same force from the other side: a higher payment on purchase keeps households renting longer. The rent-versus-buy entry has the comparison.
The next survey is due at noon Eastern on Thursday, October 15, 2026, covering applications from October 8 to October 14. The September 2026 CPI, released on October 14, 2026, lands inside that window. The release calendar lists both.
Sources
- Mortgage Rates Average 7.40% (news release, October 8, 2026)Freddie Mac · Oct 12, 2026 · Primary source
- Primary Mortgage Market Survey, 2026 weekly results archiveFreddie Mac · Oct 12, 2026 · Primary source
- About the Primary Mortgage Market Survey (methodology)Freddie Mac · Oct 12, 2026 · Primary source
- Primary Mortgage Market Survey, week of September 17, 2026Freddie Mac · Sep 17, 2026 · Primary source
- Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, October 2026U.S. Department of the Treasury · Oct 12, 2026 · Primary source
- Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, September 2026U.S. Department of the Treasury · Oct 12, 2026 · Primary source
- Monthly New Residential Sales, August 2026 (released September 24, 2026)U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development · Oct 12, 2026 · Primary source
- FOMC statement, September 16, 2026Federal Reserve Board · Sep 16, 2026 · Primary source
- Consumer Price Index Summary — August 2026U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Sep 11, 2026 · Primary source
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