Oil at $107 is the reason your inflation number has not fallen
West Texas Intermediate was $107.02 a barrel on September 15. Gasoline is up 27.4% over twelve months, and that one component is the whole gap between headline and core inflation.
Signal Series
One Number
One meaningful number, explained properly. Short, and worth the four minutes.
“What does this single figure actually tell you?”
Published in this series
Sep 21, 2026
Aug 16, 2026
24.6%
Inflation is 3.4%. Gasoline is up 24.6% over the same twelve months. That gap explains almost every argument about the economy in the summer of 2026.
Other series
The Price Tag
What would have to happen for today's valuation to make sense?
What Actually Moved It
The headline says one thing. What moved the price?
Market Autopsy
How did it actually fail, step by step?
The $10,000 Test
What would $10,000 have become — and could you have held it?
Before You Buy
What should you understand before you decide?
The Other Side
What is the strongest evidence against the consensus?