Fed holds at 3.75–4%, 10–2, with two votes for a hike
The October 28, 2026 FOMC kept the range at 3-3/4 to 4 percent; Cook and Hammack wanted a quarter point more. Next morning: GDP +3.4%, PCE inflation 3.6%.
Economy · Indicator
Jobs +29,000
Payrolls rose 29,000 in September and unemployment ticked up to 4.2%. July was revised to a loss of 10,000 and August down to 133,000: 60,000 fewer jobs than first reported.
| Previous (August 2026, revised) | +133,000 — revised DOWN from +162,000 |
|---|---|
| Actual (September 2026) | +29,000 |
| Unemployment rate | 4.2% — up from 4.1% |
| Revisions | July revised from +21,000 to −10,000; August from +162,000 to +133,000. Combined: 60,000 lower than previously reported. |
| Average hourly earnings | +3.0% over twelve months |
| Why it matters | The August gain that looked like a break in the trend was revised down by a fifth, and July is negative for the second time. The three-month average is back near the 2026 run rate. |
Revised, again
July was reported as +21,000 and is now −10,000; August fell from +162,000 to +133,000; September added 29,000.
| July (as revised Sep 4) | 21 |
|---|---|
| July (as revised Oct 2) | -10 |
| August (first) | 162 |
| August (revised) | 133 |
| September | 29 |
Change in jobs, thousandsSource: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation, September 2026
Earlier releasesEach one preserved as published. We add a release rather than edit one.
Related analysis
Fiscal 2026 deficit $1,992.5bn, up 12%; interest cost $1,051.8bn
The year-end Treasury ledger shows receipts up 3.2%, outlays up 5.5% and the deficit up $217.1bn on fiscal 2025. Interest took 19.5¢ of each receipt dollar.
Q3 GDP lands October 29. First estimates move 0.58 points on average
BEA's advance estimate of July–September 2026 GDP is scheduled for October 29. A guide: three estimates, the annualizing formula, what is already known.
Sources
- The Employment Situation — September 2026 (USDL-26-1549)U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Oct 4, 2026 · Primary source