Fed holds at 3.75–4%, 10–2, with two votes for a hike
The October 28, 2026 FOMC kept the range at 3-3/4 to 4 percent; Cook and Hammack wanted a quarter point more. Next morning: GDP +3.4%, PCE inflation 3.6%.
Archive. This is the Nonfarm payrolls, July 2026 release exactly as published. It is preserved rather than corrected: see the current release. This figure was later revised. Nonfarm payrolls, July 2026 was published as −23,000. The August 2026 release revised it to +21,000 on 4 Sep 2026. The number below is the one published on the day; it is no longer the agency’s figure for this period.
Economy · Indicator · Archive
Jobs −23,000
Payrolls fell in July and the prior two months were revised down by a combined 103,000. The unemployment rate barely moved.
| Previous (June 2026, revised) | +20,000 — revised down from +57,000 |
|---|---|
| Expected | — — we could not verify a consensus figure from a source we trust, so we are not printing one |
| Actual (July 2026) | −23,000 |
| Unemployment rate | 4.1% — essentially unchanged |
| Revisions | May cut by 66,000 (to +63,000); June cut by 37,000 (to +20,000). Combined: −103,000. |
| What changed | Local government education −50,000, retail trade −19,000, financial activities −14,000. Health care added 22,000. |
| Wages | Average hourly earnings +$0.02 to $37.62; +3.2% over twelve months. |
| Participation | 61.4%, down 0.7 percentage points since January. |
| Why it matters | A labour market this flat usually argues for lower rates. Three Fed presidents dissented in favour of higher ones. |
| Revised since publication | The August release (4 September 2026) revised July UP by 44,000, from −23,000 to +21,000. July did not, in the end, show a fall. This page preserves what was published on 7 August; the corrected figure is on the August page. |
Revisions matter
May and June looked like modest growth when first published. After revision, the three-month picture is roughly flat.
| May (first) | 129 |
|---|---|
| May (revised) | 63 |
| June (first) | 57 |
| June (revised) | 20 |
| July (first) | -23 |
Change in jobs, thousandsSource: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation, July 2026
Related analysis
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Sources
- The Employment Situation — July 2026U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · Aug 7, 2026 · Primary source