Fed holds at 3.75–4%, 10–2, with two votes for a hike
The October 28, 2026 FOMC kept the range at 3-3/4 to 4 percent; Cook and Hammack wanted a quarter point more. Next morning: GDP +3.4%, PCE inflation 3.6%.
Payrolls rose 162,000 in August — five times the average of the prior twelve months — and the two previous months were revised UP by a combined 55,000. Unemployment held at 4.1%.
| Previous (July 2026, revised) | +21,000 — revised UP from −23,000 |
|---|---|
| Expected | — — we could not verify a consensus figure from a source we trust, so we are not printing one |
| Actual (August 2026) | +162,000 |
| Unemployment rate | 4.1% — unchanged |
| Revisions | June revised up 11,000 (to +31,000); July revised up 44,000 (to +21,000). Combined: +55,000 higher than previously reported. |
| For context | BLS notes the August gain is well above the average monthly gain of 31,000 over the prior twelve months. |
| Why it matters | The labour market that looked flat in July did not stay flat, and July itself was not a decline after all. The Fed raised twelve days later. |
July was published as a fall of 23,000 and revised to a gain of 21,000. August then added 162,000.
| June (first) | 20 |
|---|---|
| June (revised) | 31 |
| July (first) | -23 |
| July (revised) | 21 |
| August | 162 |
The October 28, 2026 FOMC kept the range at 3-3/4 to 4 percent; Cook and Hammack wanted a quarter point more. Next morning: GDP +3.4%, PCE inflation 3.6%.
The year-end Treasury ledger shows receipts up 3.2%, outlays up 5.5% and the deficit up $217.1bn on fiscal 2025. Interest took 19.5¢ of each receipt dollar.
BEA's advance estimate of July–September 2026 GDP is scheduled for October 29. A guide: three estimates, the annualizing formula, what is already known.