VIX rose 2.21% on Oct 23, 2026. How unusual is that?
Historical context, not a forecast. Every figure on this page describes what happened after past moves. None of it says what happens after this one. Historical market behaviour does not predict future results.
On the record. VIX rose 2.21% on Oct 23, 2026. A move that size or larger has occurred on 66.8% of trading days since 1990 (6,209 of 9,300). In the three months after the 289 most similar days, the median change was −1.0% and 48% of them ended higher. Historical context, not a forecast.
Similar days
Three ways of choosing "similar", each stated. The default is the return band; the others are there because a single rule is a choice, and a reader should see how much the answer depends on it.
What happened next
For each comparable session, the change from its close to the close 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, 3 months later. Rows are trading sessions. An analogue too close to the end of the data to have a full horizon is left out of that horizon, so each row's sample size is its own.
| After | Sessions | Median | Mean | Share higher | 25th pct | 75th pct | Worst | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 290 | −0.39% | +0.22% | 46% | −3.19% | +2.85% | −16.68% | +46.38% |
| 1 week | 290 | −0.10% | +0.70% | 49% | −6.25% | +6.70% | −29.03% | +78.81% |
| 1 month | 289 | −0.60% | +2.89% | 47% | −10.36% | +11.14% | −39.75% | +109.18% |
| 3 months | 289 | −0.96% | +7.11% | 48% | −11.34% | +16.52% | −48.64% | +424.96% |
Historical distribution
A distribution, not a prediction. The one-month outcomes after the nearest analogues, and every horizon as dots.
Distribution of 289 outcomes from −39.75% to +109.18%; the tallest bar holds 88.
Similar historical dates
| Date | Move | +1 day | +1 week | +1 month | +3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2023 | +2.20% | +15.51% | +14.79% | −0.36% | +52.69% |
| 20-day volatility 72.6%; 20-day trend +1.68% | |||||
| Jul 26, 2021 | +2.21% | +10.13% | +10.69% | −2.05% | −12.23% |
| 20-day volatility 140.1%; 20-day trend +12.55% | |||||
| Nov 8, 2018 | +2.20% | +3.83% | +19.50% | +30.14% | −7.72% |
| 20-day volatility 152.4%; 20-day trend −33.07% | |||||
| May 14, 2018 | +2.21% | +13.15% | +1.16% | +0.08% | +14.31% |
| 20-day volatility 80.4%; 20-day trend −21.92% | |||||
| May 16, 2017 | +2.21% | +46.38% | +0.66% | +2.35% | +13.05% |
| 20-day volatility 108.9%; 20-day trend −26.14% | |||||
| Feb 18, 2014 | +2.21% | +11.75% | −1.44% | +9.01% | −10.45% |
| 20-day volatility 165.3%; 20-day trend +11.50% | |||||
| Nov 19, 2013 | +2.21% | +0.07% | −4.33% | +5.68% | +9.63% |
| 20-day volatility 61.9%; 20-day trend +0.45% | |||||
| Jul 16, 2012 | +2.21% | −3.68% | +8.83% | −13.21% | −5.67% |
| 20-day volatility 120.6%; 20-day trend −18.95% | |||||
| Feb 7, 2011 | +2.20% | −2.89% | −2.03% | +24.20% | +5.41% |
| 20-day volatility 112.8%; 20-day trend −5.02% | |||||
| Jun 15, 2007 | +2.20% | −3.73% | +12.98% | +12.12% | +78.77% |
| 20-day volatility 116.3%; 20-day trend +3.18% | |||||
| Sep 29, 2006 | +2.22% | +4.92% | −3.51% | −6.51% | −3.51% |
| 20-day volatility 73.1%; 20-day trend −2.68% | |||||
| Dec 3, 2003 | +2.21% | −1.98% | +7.46% | +5.17% | −12.93% |
| 20-day volatility 62.3%; 20-day trend +0.48% | |||||
| Sep 3, 2003 | +2.21% | −3.76% | +2.93% | +7.00% | −16.31% |
| 20-day volatility 56.8%; 20-day trend −14.29% | |||||
| Aug 7, 2000 | +2.20% | −1.26% | −6.04% | +9.25% | +24.38% |
| 20-day volatility 46.7%; 20-day trend −6.39% | |||||
| May 22, 2000 | +2.20% | −0.50% | −9.15% | −20.73% | −33.27% |
| 20-day volatility 92.1%; 20-day trend −5.01% | |||||
| Jan 27, 2000 | +2.21% | +11.05% | −6.50% | +4.84% | +11.26% |
| 20-day volatility 112.0%; 20-day trend +1.95% | |||||
| Apr 2, 1997 | +2.21% | −0.52% | −12.86% | −6.71% | −1.41% |
| 20-day volatility 79.9%; 20-day trend +3.30% | |||||
| Dec 29, 1995 | +2.20% | −2.64% | +4.71% | −0.80% | +50.80% |
| 20-day volatility 142.3%; 20-day trend +8.12% | |||||
| Dec 30, 1993 | +2.20% | +9.07% | +5.43% | −7.02% | +73.90% |
| 20-day volatility 69.5%; 20-day trend −22.70% | |||||
| May 21, 1992 | +2.20% | −1.36% | −0.43% | +19.68% | +4.02% |
| 20-day volatility 55.1%; 20-day trend −12.07% | |||||
How different is today?
The same conditions measured on the day of each analogue, against today. A move of the same size in a different regime is a different event.
| Condition | Today | Analogue median | Today is |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20-day realised volatility (annualised) | 114.6% | 80.7% | above |
| 20-day trend | 30.8% | -2.9% | positive |
- Today's volatility is elevated relative to most historical analogues.
- The 20-day trend today is positive; among the analogues it was mixed.
- Current conditions differ from the historical cases in ways the table shows and in ways it cannot.
Where the numbers come from
Daily closes from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), series VIXCLS, 1990 through Oct 23, 2026. Moves are day-over-day percentage changes in the close. The full method, the definitions and what this tool does not claim are on the methodology page. Provenance for every dataset is in the source manifest.
Related
- Market Memory for every asset tracked
- How much gain a loss needs to recover
- What if you had invested — the honest calculator
- Reckonings — what happened to the people who held, and the ones who did not
- The 2020 30-year Treasury is worth 46 cents on the dollar
- Inside $4.48 gasoline: $2.33 crude, 97¢ refining, 52¢ taxes
- The October 27–28 FOMC: three documents, one vote, no dot plot