Tesla rose 6.08% on Oct 26, 2026. How unusual is that?
Historical context, not a forecast. Every figure on this page describes what happened after past moves. None of it says what happens after this one. Historical market behaviour does not predict future results.
On the record. Tesla rose 6.08% on Oct 26, 2026. A move that size or larger has occurred on 7.8% of trading days since 2010 (322 of 4,105). In the three months after the 38 most similar days, the median change was −0.3% and 47% of them ended higher. Historical context, not a forecast.
Similar days
Three ways of choosing "similar", each stated. The default is the return band; the others are there because a single rule is a choice, and a reader should see how much the answer depends on it.
What happened next
For each comparable session, the change from its close to the close 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, 3 months later. Rows are trading sessions. An analogue too close to the end of the data to have a full horizon is left out of that horizon, so each row's sample size is its own.
| After | Sessions | Median | Mean | Share higher | 25th pct | 75th pct | Worst | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 38 | −0.47% | −0.25% | 37% | −1.72% | +1.94% | −8.06% | +10.20% |
| 1 week | 38 | −0.56% | −0.51% | 47% | −4.38% | +4.15% | −33.34% | +25.00% |
| 1 month | 38 | −0.55% | +4.33% | 50% | −9.94% | +12.11% | −22.73% | +68.06% |
| 3 months | 38 | −0.28% | +13.84% | 47% | −10.63% | +24.78% | −48.97% | +128.97% |
Historical distribution
A distribution, not a prediction. The one-month outcomes after the nearest analogues, and every horizon as dots.
Distribution of 38 outcomes from −22.73% to +68.06%; the tallest bar holds 12.
Similar historical dates
| Date | Move | +1 day | +1 week | +1 month | +3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2025 | +6.04% | +7.36% | +13.03% | +12.11% | +22.41% |
| 20-day volatility 40.5%; drawdown -23.1%; 20-day trend +8.67%; volume z 2.2 | |||||
| Dec 16, 2024 | +6.14% | +3.64% | −7.00% | −7.89% | −48.97% |
| 20-day volatility 47.7%; drawdown 0.0%; 20-day trend +44.37%; volume z 1.5 | |||||
| Jul 1, 2024 | +6.05% | +10.20% | +25.00% | +10.58% | +24.67% |
| 20-day volatility 41.2%; drawdown -48.8%; 20-day trend +17.85%; volume z 3.3 | |||||
| Nov 14, 2023 | +6.12% | +2.29% | +1.60% | +5.75% | −15.57% |
| 20-day volatility 63.4%; drawdown -42.1%; 20-day trend −6.84%; volume z 1.4 | |||||
| Jul 27, 2022 | +6.17% | +2.21% | +11.85% | +7.73% | −19.07% |
| 20-day volatility 55.9%; drawdown -33.0%; 20-day trend +18.12%; volume z 0.1 | |||||
| Feb 24, 2021 | +6.18% | −8.06% | −11.97% | −13.70% | −18.51% |
| 20-day volatility 56.3%; drawdown -16.0%; 20-day trend −15.97%; volume z 0.9 | |||||
| Dec 18, 2020 | +5.96% | −6.49% | −4.51% | +21.58% | −4.73% |
| 20-day volatility 63.4%; drawdown 0.0%; 20-day trend +39.20%; volume z 15.0 | |||||
| Mar 10, 2020 | +6.14% | −1.72% | −33.34% | −14.95% | +45.77% |
| 20-day volatility 98.7%; drawdown -29.7%; 20-day trend −16.33%; volume z -0.5 | |||||
| Sep 26, 2019 | +6.06% | −0.18% | −3.93% | +35.28% | +77.66% |
| 20-day volatility 46.5%; drawdown -37.0%; 20-day trend +12.51%; volume z 2.2 | |||||
| Nov 26, 2018 | +6.19% | −0.60% | +3.61% | −8.63% | −7.55% |
| 20-day volatility 40.4%; drawdown -10.1%; 20-day trend +4.56%; volume z -0.0 | |||||
| Apr 3, 2018 | +5.96% | +7.26% | +13.89% | +12.57% | +25.25% |
| 20-day volatility 58.7%; drawdown -30.5%; 20-day trend −19.75%; volume z 2.3 | |||||
| Dec 16, 2015 | +6.07% | −0.48% | −2.05% | −12.70% | −0.75% |
| 20-day volatility 39.1%; drawdown -18.0%; 20-day trend +9.58%; volume z 3.6 | |||||
| Apr 27, 2015 | +6.01% | −0.46% | −0.45% | +6.86% | +9.27% |
| 20-day volatility 36.2%; drawdown -19.0%; 20-day trend +25.16%; volume z 2.4 | |||||
| Dec 18, 2014 | +6.04% | +0.47% | +4.38% | −9.94% | −8.54% |
| 20-day volatility 41.8%; drawdown -23.7%; 20-day trend −11.90%; volume z 0.6 | |||||
| Apr 2, 2014 | +6.14% | −2.12% | −5.80% | −8.42% | −0.37% |
| 20-day volatility 44.7%; drawdown -9.6%; 20-day trend −8.85%; volume z 1.8 | |||||
| Feb 19, 2013 | +6.05% | −1.88% | −12.35% | −8.48% | +128.97% |
| 20-day volatility 34.3%; drawdown -0.5%; 20-day trend +13.79%; volume z 1.4 | |||||
| Aug 11, 2011 | +6.21% | +3.99% | −4.11% | −9.57% | +22.06% |
| 20-day volatility 57.9%; drawdown -28.7%; 20-day trend −8.37%; volume z -0.7 | |||||
| Aug 9, 2011 | +6.01% | −4.95% | +4.15% | −5.79% | +24.78% |
| 20-day volatility 51.9%; drawdown -29.3%; 20-day trend −11.04%; volume z -0.0 | |||||
| Feb 8, 2011 | +6.16% | −5.23% | −6.74% | −1.96% | +15.68% |
| 20-day volatility 52.0%; drawdown -31.0%; 20-day trend −13.92%; volume z 4.4 | |||||
| Jul 19, 2010 | +6.15% | −7.35% | −4.38% | −12.60% | −6.25% |
| drawdown -8.3% | |||||
How different is today?
The same conditions measured on the day of each analogue, against today. A move of the same size in a different regime is a different event.
| Condition | Today | Analogue median | Today is |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20-day realised volatility (annualised) | 39.3% | 52.0% | below |
| 20-day trend | 10.5% | 3.7% | positive |
| Drawdown from the high | -19.4% | -23.4% | similar |
| Volume, z-score vs 20 days | -3.1 σ | — |
- Today's volatility is lower than in most historical analogues.
- The 20-day trend today is positive; among the analogues it was mixed.
- Today's drawdown is similar to the historical analogues.
- Current conditions differ from the historical cases in ways the table shows and in ways it cannot.
Where the numbers come from
Daily closes from Twelve Data, series TSLA, 2010 through Oct 26, 2026. Moves are day-over-day percentage changes in the close. The full method, the definitions and what this tool does not claim are on the methodology page. Provenance for every dataset is in the source manifest.
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