S&P 500 (SPY) rose 0.59% on Oct 26, 2026. How unusual is that?
Historical context, not a forecast. Every figure on this page describes what happened after past moves. None of it says what happens after this one. Historical market behaviour does not predict future results.
On the record. S&P 500 (SPY) rose 0.59% on Oct 26, 2026. A move that size or larger has occurred on 46.5% of trading days since 1993 (3,951 of 8,491). In the three months after the 1,544 most similar days, the median change was +2.9% and 68% of them ended higher. Historical context, not a forecast.
Similar days
Three ways of choosing "similar", each stated. The default is the return band; the others are there because a single rule is a choice, and a reader should see how much the answer depends on it.
What happened next
For each comparable session, the change from its close to the close 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, 3 months later. Rows are trading sessions. An analogue too close to the end of the data to have a full horizon is left out of that horizon, so each row's sample size is its own.
| After | Sessions | Median | Mean | Share higher | 25th pct | 75th pct | Worst | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 1557 | +0.05% | +0.04% | 53% | −0.38% | +0.50% | −5.28% | +4.81% |
| 1 week | 1556 | +0.29% | +0.13% | 57% | −0.81% | +1.28% | −12.13% | +10.04% |
| 1 month | 1551 | +1.02% | +0.52% | 62% | −1.46% | +3.02% | −28.91% | +18.13% |
| 3 months | 1544 | +2.90% | +2.10% | 68% | −1.31% | +6.53% | −33.75% | +29.96% |
Historical distribution
A distribution, not a prediction. The one-month outcomes after the nearest analogues, and every horizon as dots.
Distribution of 1551 outcomes from −28.91% to +18.13%; the tallest bar holds 670.
Similar historical dates
| Date | Move | +1 day | +1 week | +1 month | +3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2023 | +0.59% | +1.41% | +1.36% | +2.93% | +9.80% |
| 20-day volatility 19.1%; drawdown -15.5%; 20-day trend +1.48%; volume z -1.2 | |||||
| May 15, 2019 | +0.59% | +0.93% | +0.20% | +1.47% | −0.41% |
| 20-day volatility 13.3%; drawdown -3.1%; 20-day trend −1.76%; volume z -0.1 | |||||
| Apr 25, 2017 | +0.58% | −0.06% | +0.09% | +0.86% | +3.72% |
| 20-day volatility 7.8%; drawdown -0.5%; 20-day trend +2.11%; volume z -0.3 | |||||
| May 7, 2014 | +0.59% | −0.11% | +0.63% | +3.99% | +2.23% |
| 20-day volatility 12.2%; drawdown -0.5%; 20-day trend +1.50%; volume z -0.0 | |||||
| Mar 20, 2014 | +0.58% | −0.83% | −1.69% | −0.38% | +4.65% |
| 20-day volatility 9.3%; drawdown -0.3%; 20-day trend +1.98%; volume z -0.1 | |||||
| Jul 1, 2013 | +0.59% | −0.09% | +2.34% | +4.56% | +4.12% |
| 20-day volatility 17.3%; drawdown -3.5%; 20-day trend −1.82%; volume z -0.9 | |||||
| Jun 27, 2013 | +0.59% | −0.41% | +1.20% | +4.66% | +5.35% |
| 20-day volatility 17.9%; drawdown -3.6%; 20-day trend −2.86%; volume z -0.9 | |||||
| Dec 10, 2010 | +0.58% | +0.06% | −0.14% | +2.37% | +4.47% |
| 20-day volatility 15.8%; drawdown -20.4%; 20-day trend +2.33%; volume z -1.2 | |||||
| Feb 18, 2010 | +0.59% | +0.21% | −0.22% | +4.56% | +0.77% |
| 20-day volatility 20.4%; drawdown -29.1%; 20-day trend −2.62%; volume z -0.8 | |||||
| Sep 22, 2009 | +0.58% | −0.83% | −1.00% | +1.08% | +3.98% |
| 20-day volatility 13.3%; drawdown -31.6%; 20-day trend +3.99%; volume z -0.8 | |||||
| Feb 11, 2009 | +0.59% | +0.07% | −6.48% | −8.98% | +6.08% |
| 20-day volatility 40.0%; drawdown -46.6%; 20-day trend −4.03%; volume z -0.6 | |||||
| Oct 22, 2007 | +0.58% | +0.81% | +2.38% | −3.92% | −11.08% |
| 20-day volatility 13.6%; drawdown -3.8%; 20-day trend −0.76%; volume z 2.2 | |||||
| May 2, 2007 | +0.59% | +0.54% | +1.08% | +3.04% | −2.08% |
| 20-day volatility 7.2%; drawdown -2.6%; 20-day trend +4.07%; volume z -0.2 | |||||
| Dec 26, 2006 | +0.59% | +0.66% | +0.06% | +0.33% | +0.28% |
| 20-day volatility 7.5%; drawdown -7.8%; 20-day trend +2.28%; volume z -1.8 | |||||
| Dec 8, 2004 | +0.58% | +0.35% | +1.76% | −0.29% | +2.06% |
| 20-day volatility 9.1%; drawdown -22.6%; 20-day trend +1.63%; volume z -0.0 | |||||
| Mar 18, 2003 | +0.59% | +0.77% | +0.26% | +1.10% | +16.46% |
| 20-day volatility 24.3%; drawdown -43.2%; 20-day trend +1.94%; volume z 0.1 | |||||
| Apr 3, 2000 | +0.58% | −0.74% | −0.27% | −6.94% | −2.62% |
| 20-day volatility 26.7%; drawdown -1.5%; 20-day trend +8.23%; volume z -0.5 | |||||
| Feb 14, 2000 | +0.59% | +1.13% | −3.25% | +0.22% | +4.14% |
| 20-day volatility 24.1%; drawdown -5.1%; 20-day trend −5.08%; volume z 0.4 | |||||
| Oct 21, 1999 | +0.58% | +0.85% | +4.31% | +10.47% | +11.97% |
| 20-day volatility 20.2%; drawdown -9.0%; 20-day trend +0.88%; volume z -0.3 | |||||
| Oct 20, 1998 | +0.59% | −0.35% | −0.00% | +7.24% | +14.81% |
| 20-day volatility 33.9%; drawdown -9.8%; 20-day trend +4.01%; volume z 0.7 | |||||
How different is today?
The same conditions measured on the day of each analogue, against today. A move of the same size in a different regime is a different event.
| Condition | Today | Analogue median | Today is |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20-day realised volatility (annualised) | 9.7% | 12.1% | below |
| 20-day trend | -0.2% | 1.8% | negative |
| Drawdown from the high | -1.9% | -3.2% | below |
| Volume, z-score vs 20 days | -3.3 σ | — |
- Today's volatility is lower than in most historical analogues.
- The 20-day trend today is negative; among the analogues it was mostly positive.
- Today's drawdown is shallower than in most historical analogues.
- Current conditions differ from the historical cases in ways the table shows and in ways it cannot.
Where the numbers come from
Daily closes from Twelve Data, series SPY, 1993 through Oct 26, 2026. Moves are day-over-day percentage changes in the close. The full method, the definitions and what this tool does not claim are on the methodology page. Provenance for every dataset is in the source manifest.
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