Market Memory

Russell 2000 (IWM) rose 0.61% on Oct 26, 2026. How unusual is that?

Historical context, not a forecast. Every figure on this page describes what happened after past moves. None of it says what happens after this one. Historical market behaviour does not predict future results.

Latest move

+0.61%

275.75 → 277.43 · close of Oct 26, 2026

How unusual

40.1th

larger than 40.1% of all daily moves since 2000

Similar days found

1,008

within 0.25% of today's move

This series is the exchange-traded fund IWM, used as a proxy because its daily history is longer than the index series available to this site. Its moves track the index closely but are not identical.

On the record. Russell 2000 (IWM) rose 0.61% on Oct 26, 2026. A move that size or larger has occurred on 59.9% of trading days since 2000 (3,980 of 6,641). In the three months after the 995 most similar days, the median change was +2.4% and 61% of them ended higher. Historical context, not a forecast.

Among rises only, today's is larger than 40.1% of them. 3,980 of 6,641 sessions since 2000 moved this much or more in either direction.

Similar days

Three ways of choosing "similar", each stated. The default is the return band; the others are there because a single rule is a choice, and a reader should see how much the answer depends on it.

Comparison mode Return band (1008) This big or bigger (2103) Same regime (95)

Same direction, within 0.25% of today's move.

What happened next

For each comparable session, the change from its close to the close 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, 3 months later. Rows are trading sessions. An analogue too close to the end of the data to have a full horizon is left out of that horizon, so each row's sample size is its own.

What happened after the comparable sessions, by horizon
After	Sessions	Median	Mean	Share higher	25th pct	75th pct	Worst	Best
1 day	1008	+0.03%	−0.00%	51%	−0.70%	+0.69%	−7.90%	+6.22%
1 week	1008	+0.15%	+0.00%	52%	−1.60%	+1.70%	−14.50%	+11.85%
1 month	1005	+0.94%	+0.43%	56%	−2.70%	+3.95%	−38.32%	+27.41%
3 months	995	+2.45%	+1.63%	61%	−3.47%	+7.37%	−40.35%	+51.14%

"Share higher" is the historical frequency among prior similar events, not a probability for today.

Historical distribution

A distribution, not a prediction. The one-month outcomes after the nearest analogues, and every horizon as dots.

One-month outcomes after all 1005 comparable sessions (return band)

Distribution of 1005 outcomes from −38.32% to +27.41%; the tallest bar holds 398.

Outcomes after the comparable sessions as dots, by horizon; the bar is the median. Samples above 100 are thinned evenly to 100 dots; the table holds the full figures.

Similar historical dates

The nearest historical analogues and what followed each
Date	Move	+1 day	+1 week	+1 month	+3 months
May 18, 2023	+0.61%	−0.61%	−1.70%	+4.48%	+4.21%
20-day volatility 20.2%; drawdown -27.0%; 20-day trend −0.08%; volume z 0.2
Apr 25, 2022	+0.61%	−3.15%	−3.59%	−9.43%	−7.49%
20-day volatility 23.6%; drawdown -20.1%; 20-day trend −5.95%; volume z 1.7
Aug 6, 2021	+0.61%	−0.55%	−1.01%	+1.34%	+6.79%
20-day volatility 21.7%; drawdown -4.7%; 20-day trend −1.32%; volume z -0.6
Sep 12, 2017	+0.61%	+0.30%	+1.30%	+5.80%	+6.93%
20-day volatility 11.2%; drawdown -1.7%; 20-day trend +2.17%; volume z 0.1
Mar 11, 2015	+0.62%	+1.66%	+2.98%	+3.78%	+4.09%
20-day volatility 9.5%; drawdown -2.0%; 20-day trend +1.19%; volume z -0.5
Sep 18, 2014	+0.61%	−1.26%	−4.59%	−6.89%	+1.26%
20-day volatility 10.1%; drawdown -3.8%; 20-day trend +0.42%; volume z -0.8
Jul 3, 2014	+0.60%	−1.71%	−3.94%	−6.81%	−9.17%
20-day volatility 9.8%; drawdown -0.2%; 20-day trend +4.39%; volume z -1.9
Jun 10, 2013	+0.61%	−1.08%	−0.46%	+2.51%	+5.20%
20-day volatility 14.1%; drawdown -0.4%; 20-day trend +2.03%; volume z -0.7
Oct 31, 2012	+0.60%	+1.05%	−1.58%	+0.55%	+10.71%
20-day volatility 11.6%; drawdown -5.5%; 20-day trend −2.50%; volume z -1.3
Jul 18, 2012	+0.61%	−0.34%	−4.24%	+1.15%	+3.78%
20-day volatility 19.5%; drawdown -7.1%; 20-day trend +2.00%; volume z -0.1
Jun 19, 2009	+0.61%	−3.55%	−0.16%	+2.22%	+20.66%
20-day volatility 28.6%; drawdown -39.6%; 20-day trend +6.25%; volume z -1.1
Jul 30, 2008	+0.60%	−0.40%	+0.99%	+4.05%	−32.34%
20-day volatility 31.4%; drawdown -15.7%; 20-day trend +3.63%; volume z 1.2
Mar 24, 2006	+0.60%	+0.01%	+1.43%	+1.63%	−8.34%
20-day volatility 15.7%; drawdown 0.0%; 20-day trend +2.11%; volume z -0.8
Oct 3, 2005	+0.60%	−1.51%	−5.11%	−4.03%	+1.89%
20-day volatility 13.8%; drawdown -2.3%; 20-day trend +0.94%; volume z 0.5
Sep 9, 2005	+0.61%	+0.45%	−0.67%	−5.95%	+1.35%
20-day volatility 16.1%; drawdown -1.4%; 20-day trend +1.61%; volume z 0.4
Feb 26, 2004	+0.61%	+0.52%	+2.69%	−1.64%	−2.44%
20-day volatility 19.8%; drawdown -3.2%; 20-day trend −0.39%; volume z -0.4
Feb 11, 2004	+0.61%	−0.68%	−2.46%	−2.04%	−7.24%
20-day volatility 17.8%; drawdown -1.0%; 20-day trend +2.35%; volume z -0.1
Nov 25, 2003	+0.60%	+0.54%	+0.32%	+1.96%	+7.71%
20-day volatility 19.3%; drawdown -0.6%; 20-day trend +2.99%; volume z 0.4
Jan 10, 2002	+0.61%	−1.22%	−3.55%	−5.06%	+3.96%
20-day volatility 19.1%; drawdown -9.5%; 20-day trend +4.17%; volume z -0.9
Jun 15, 2001	+0.61%	−0.76%	−1.57%	−0.71%	−21.91%
20-day volatility 19.4%; drawdown -9.4%; 20-day trend −1.99%; volume z 0.6

Nearest 20 by size of move, newest first. Select a row for the conditions on that date.

How different is today?

The same conditions measured on the day of each analogue, against today. A move of the same size in a different regime is a different event.

Today against the median of the analogues
Condition	Today	Analogue median	Today is
20-day realised volatility (annualised)	14.7%	17.5%	similar
20-day trend	-0.9%	2.4%	negative
Drawdown from the high	-9.1%	-5.8%	above
Volume, z-score vs 20 days	-3.8 σ	—

Today's volatility is in line with the historical analogues.
The 20-day trend today is negative; among the analogues it was mostly positive.
Today's drawdown is deeper than in most historical analogues.
Current conditions differ from the historical cases in ways the table shows and in ways it cannot.

Where the numbers come from

Daily closes from Twelve Data, series IWM, 2000 through Oct 26, 2026. Moves are day-over-day percentage changes in the close. The full method, the definitions and what this tool does not claim are on the methodology page. Provenance for every dataset is in the source manifest.

Last verified: Oct 26, 2026 · 4:49pm ET · latest close in the data: Oct 26, 2026 · 6,643 rows from 2000 · checksum be2446ab3816be6d

Similar days

What happened next

Historical distribution

Similar historical dates

How different is today?

Where the numbers come from

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