WTI crude oil fell 1.93% on Oct 20, 2026. How unusual is that?
Historical context, not a forecast. Every figure on this page describes what happened after past moves. None of it says what happens after this one. Historical market behaviour does not predict future results.
On the record. WTI crude oil fell 1.93% on Oct 20, 2026. A move that size or larger has occurred on 34.0% of trading days since 1986 (3,241 of 9,524). In the three months after the 458 most similar days, the median change was +2.8% and 56% of them ended higher. Historical context, not a forecast.
Similar days
Three ways of choosing "similar", each stated. The default is the return band; the others are there because a single rule is a choice, and a reader should see how much the answer depends on it.
What happened next
For each comparable session, the change from its close to the close 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, 3 months later. Rows are trading sessions. An analogue too close to the end of the data to have a full horizon is left out of that horizon, so each row's sample size is its own.
| After | Sessions | Median | Mean | Share higher | 25th pct | 75th pct | Worst | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 461 | +0.25% | +0.15% | 55% | −1.26% | +1.70% | −12.03% | +8.37% |
| 1 week | 461 | +0.34% | +0.23% | 52% | −2.99% | +3.62% | −31.24% | +21.52% |
| 1 month | 459 | +1.56% | +1.78% | 56% | −5.07% | +8.19% | −38.21% | +47.36% |
| 3 months | 458 | +2.77% | +3.61% | 56% | −7.64% | +13.59% | −76.64% | +124.21% |
Historical distribution
A distribution, not a prediction. The one-month outcomes after the nearest analogues, and every horizon as dots.
Distribution of 459 outcomes from −38.21% to +47.36%; the tallest bar holds 133.
Similar historical dates
| Date | Move | +1 day | +1 week | +1 month | +3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2025 | −1.92% | −0.23% | −3.38% | +4.34% | −7.81% |
| 20-day volatility 25.5%; drawdown -52.8%; 20-day trend −5.78% | |||||
| May 31, 2023 | −1.93% | +2.91% | +6.47% | +3.74% | +19.86% |
| 20-day volatility 36.9%; drawdown -53.1%; 20-day trend −5.02% | |||||
| Nov 14, 2017 | −1.94% | −0.70% | +2.10% | +2.39% | +10.44% |
| 20-day volatility 19.8%; drawdown -61.7%; 20-day trend +7.33% | |||||
| Jun 27, 2016 | −1.93% | +4.65% | +2.03% | −8.52% | −0.44% |
| 20-day volatility 34.9%; drawdown -68.5%; 20-day trend −7.21% | |||||
| Mar 31, 2015 | −1.93% | +5.03% | +5.70% | +24.94% | +24.64% |
| 20-day volatility 46.9%; drawdown -67.2%; 20-day trend −5.37% | |||||
| Feb 19, 2015 | −1.94% | −2.29% | −6.79% | −10.02% | +15.34% |
| 20-day volatility 73.5%; drawdown -64.8%; 20-day trend +5.73% | |||||
| Jul 31, 2012 | −1.92% | +1.03% | +6.36% | +8.42% | −2.91% |
| 20-day volatility 33.9%; drawdown -39.4%; 20-day trend +5.21% | |||||
| Mar 2, 2012 | −1.91% | +0.02% | +0.67% | −1.34% | −22.04% |
| 20-day volatility 20.0%; drawdown -26.6%; 20-day trend +10.71% | |||||
| Jan 25, 2011 | −1.91% | +1.26% | +5.24% | +12.64% | +13.31% |
| 20-day volatility 21.6%; drawdown -41.4%; 20-day trend −6.50% | |||||
| Mar 19, 2010 | −1.92% | +0.84% | −1.03% | +2.98% | −4.22% |
| 20-day volatility 23.6%; drawdown -44.5%; 20-day trend +1.02% | |||||
| Nov 14, 2008 | −1.94% | −3.57% | −13.92% | −23.33% | −39.37% |
| 20-day volatility 79.3%; drawdown -60.6%; 20-day trend −20.47% | |||||
| Nov 19, 2001 | −1.93% | +3.61% | +9.70% | +15.11% | +37.94% |
| 20-day volatility 81.3%; drawdown -56.8%; 20-day trend −16.83% | |||||
| Jan 16, 1997 | −1.93% | −0.20% | −6.29% | −20.43% | −13.16% |
| 20-day volatility 38.7%; drawdown -38.0%; 20-day trend +8.76% | |||||
| Jan 10, 1995 | −1.91% | +1.72% | +5.97% | +5.86% | +15.56% |
| 20-day volatility 19.8%; drawdown -57.6%; 20-day trend +2.47% | |||||
| Aug 18, 1994 | −1.94% | −0.96% | −1.35% | −0.45% | −4.12% |
| 20-day volatility 30.8%; drawdown -56.8%; 20-day trend −8.23% | |||||
| May 13, 1993 | −1.93% | −1.46% | −1.21% | −4.55% | −9.90% |
| 20-day volatility 14.2%; drawdown -51.8%; 20-day trend −2.37% | |||||
| Jun 30, 1992 | −1.93% | +0.27% | −1.51% | −0.09% | −0.82% |
| 20-day volatility 15.8%; drawdown -46.8%; 20-day trend −1.62% | |||||
| Jul 10, 1989 | −1.92% | +1.82% | +0.54% | −10.55% | +0.54% |
| 20-day volatility 39.6%; drawdown -23.2%; 20-day trend +5.60% | |||||
| Apr 13, 1989 | −1.94% | +2.07% | +21.52% | +1.33% | −0.30% |
| 20-day volatility 37.5%; drawdown -23.6%; 20-day trend +2.12% | |||||
| Feb 12, 1988 | −1.92% | −0.00% | −0.65% | −6.12% | +4.10% |
| 20-day volatility 20.5%; drawdown -36.5%; 20-day trend −0.47% | |||||
How different is today?
The same conditions measured on the day of each analogue, against today. A move of the same size in a different regime is a different event.
| Condition | Today | Analogue median | Today is |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20-day realised volatility (annualised) | 85.7% | 31.4% | above |
| 20-day trend | 11.9% | -1.6% | positive |
| Drawdown from the high | -25.8% | -45.0% | below |
- Today's volatility is elevated relative to most historical analogues.
- The 20-day trend today is positive; among the analogues it was mixed.
- Today's drawdown is shallower than in most historical analogues.
- Current conditions differ from the historical cases in ways the table shows and in ways it cannot.
Where the numbers come from
Daily closes from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), series DCOILWTICO, 1986 through Oct 20, 2026. Moves are day-over-day percentage changes in the close. The full method, the definitions and what this tool does not claim are on the methodology page. Provenance for every dataset is in the source manifest.
Related
- Market Memory for every asset tracked
- How much gain a loss needs to recover
- What if you had invested — the honest calculator
- Reckonings — what happened to the people who held, and the ones who did not
- The 2020 30-year Treasury is worth 46 cents on the dollar
- Inside $4.48 gasoline: $2.33 crude, 97¢ refining, 52¢ taxes
- The October 27–28 FOMC: three documents, one vote, no dot plot