NVIDIA rose 1.92% on Oct 26, 2026. How unusual is that?
Historical context, not a forecast. Every figure on this page describes what happened after past moves. None of it says what happens after this one. Historical market behaviour does not predict future results.
On the record. NVIDIA rose 1.92% on Oct 26, 2026. A move that size or larger has occurred on 45.4% of trading days since 1999 (3,172 of 6,981). In the three months after the 376 most similar days, the median change was +7.8% and 66% of them ended higher. Historical context, not a forecast.
Similar days
Three ways of choosing "similar", each stated. The default is the return band; the others are there because a single rule is a choice, and a reader should see how much the answer depends on it.
What happened next
For each comparable session, the change from its close to the close 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, 3 months later. Rows are trading sessions. An analogue too close to the end of the data to have a full horizon is left out of that horizon, so each row's sample size is its own.
| After | Sessions | Median | Mean | Share higher | 25th pct | 75th pct | Worst | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 379 | +0.19% | +0.28% | 54% | −1.18% | +1.74% | −13.60% | +14.47% |
| 1 week | 379 | +1.14% | +1.13% | 57% | −3.10% | +4.93% | −25.74% | +23.20% |
| 1 month | 377 | +2.43% | +3.22% | 57% | −5.75% | +12.02% | −42.37% | +51.04% |
| 3 months | 376 | +7.78% | +10.19% | 66% | −5.10% | +27.34% | −74.62% | +144.92% |
Historical distribution
A distribution, not a prediction. The one-month outcomes after the nearest analogues, and every horizon as dots.
Distribution of 377 outcomes from −42.37% to +51.04%; the tallest bar holds 96.
Similar historical dates
| Date | Move | +1 day | +1 week | +1 month | +3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 16, 2025 | +1.92% | −0.39% | +2.22% | +19.57% | +20.87% |
| 20-day volatility 28.2%; drawdown -3.2%; 20-day trend +6.86%; volume z -0.5 | |||||
| Mar 7, 2025 | +1.92% | −5.07% | +7.97% | −13.36% | +25.76% |
| 20-day volatility 60.1%; drawdown -24.6%; 20-day trend −12.43%; volume z 0.9 | |||||
| Sep 12, 2024 | +1.91% | −0.03% | −1.07% | +13.14% | +16.93% |
| 20-day volatility 65.9%; drawdown -12.1%; 20-day trend +0.90%; volume z 0.3 | |||||
| Apr 28, 2023 | +1.92% | +4.18% | +3.36% | +44.55% | +68.40% |
| 20-day volatility 28.6%; drawdown -16.9%; 20-day trend +1.34%; volume z -1.6 | |||||
| Aug 25, 2021 | +1.93% | −0.65% | +1.03% | −0.59% | +42.92% |
| 20-day volatility 36.6%; drawdown 0.0%; 20-day trend +13.90%; volume z 0.4 | |||||
| Oct 10, 2017 | +1.91% | +1.06% | +4.67% | +10.71% | +18.39% |
| 20-day volatility 36.1%; drawdown 0.0%; 20-day trend +11.39%; volume z 0.7 | |||||
| Mar 30, 2017 | +1.92% | −0.43% | −7.90% | −2.52% | +34.08% |
| 20-day volatility 23.6%; drawdown -8.2%; 20-day trend +10.51%; volume z -0.6 | |||||
| May 10, 2016 | +1.93% | +0.28% | +17.58% | +31.76% | +63.77% |
| 20-day volatility 23.6%; drawdown -9.1%; 20-day trend +0.33%; volume z -0.3 | |||||
| Sep 24, 2015 | +1.91% | +0.73% | +3.11% | +21.97% | +41.04% |
| 20-day volatility 33.3%; drawdown -40.7%; 20-day trend +7.47%; volume z 0.8 | |||||
| Mar 5, 2015 | +1.92% | −1.36% | −0.83% | −5.21% | −3.37% |
| 20-day volatility 31.0%; drawdown -42.2%; 20-day trend +13.39%; volume z 0.8 | |||||
| Mar 17, 2010 | +1.91% | −3.54% | −4.48% | −5.75% | −34.97% |
| 20-day volatility 39.9%; drawdown -54.2%; 20-day trend +1.46%; volume z 0.3 | |||||
| Feb 10, 2010 | +1.93% | +4.58% | +1.83% | +5.38% | −10.32% |
| 20-day volatility 49.2%; drawdown -58.6%; 20-day trend −7.36%; volume z -1.1 | |||||
| Sep 26, 2008 | +1.92% | −13.60% | −22.75% | −40.38% | −35.76% |
| 20-day volatility 67.3%; drawdown -70.4%; 20-day trend −11.04%; volume z -0.8 | |||||
| Jul 12, 2007 | +1.92% | −0.61% | −1.19% | −4.68% | +19.97% |
| 20-day volatility 42.1%; drawdown 0.0%; 20-day trend +24.16%; volume z -0.8 | |||||
| Jan 30, 2007 | +1.92% | −0.36% | +8.97% | −0.46% | +8.06% |
| 20-day volatility 48.4%; drawdown -20.5%; 20-day trend −17.40%; volume z -0.6 | |||||
| Feb 15, 2006 | +1.93% | +4.94% | +1.53% | +8.43% | +10.98% |
| 20-day volatility 37.1%; drawdown -37.3%; 20-day trend +5.34%; volume z 0.5 | |||||
| Dec 10, 2004 | +1.92% | −2.75% | −1.07% | −8.19% | +10.98% |
| 20-day volatility 30.6%; drawdown -67.5%; 20-day trend +29.00%; volume z -0.3 | |||||
| Sep 13, 2004 | +1.92% | +0.42% | +2.30% | −0.14% | +62.55% |
| 20-day volatility 59.2%; drawdown -80.0%; 20-day trend +36.57%; volume z 0.9 | |||||
| Sep 1, 2004 | +1.93% | +4.10% | +6.69% | +19.06% | +54.41% |
| 20-day volatility 142.3%; drawdown -82.3%; 20-day trend −15.16%; volume z -0.5 | |||||
| Nov 30, 2001 | +1.92% | −1.52% | +9.72% | +23.17% | +7.81% |
| 20-day volatility 53.9%; drawdown 0.0%; 20-day trend +17.45%; volume z -0.3 | |||||
How different is today?
The same conditions measured on the day of each analogue, against today. A move of the same size in a different regime is a different event.
| Condition | Today | Analogue median | Today is |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20-day realised volatility (annualised) | 29.5% | 41.0% | below |
| 20-day trend | -6.1% | 3.7% | negative |
| Drawdown from the high | -10.1% | -32.1% | below |
| Volume, z-score vs 20 days | -4.8 σ | — |
- Today's volatility is lower than in most historical analogues.
- The 20-day trend today is negative; among the analogues it was mostly positive.
- Today's drawdown is shallower than in most historical analogues.
- Current conditions differ from the historical cases in ways the table shows and in ways it cannot.
Where the numbers come from
Daily closes from Twelve Data, series NVDA, 1999 through Oct 26, 2026. Moves are day-over-day percentage changes in the close. The full method, the definitions and what this tool does not claim are on the methodology page. Provenance for every dataset is in the source manifest.
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