Microsoft rose 0.94% on Oct 26, 2026. How unusual is that?
Historical context, not a forecast. Every figure on this page describes what happened after past moves. None of it says what happens after this one. Historical market behaviour does not predict future results.
On the record. Microsoft rose 0.94% on Oct 26, 2026. A move that size or larger has occurred on 52.6% of trading days since 1986 (5,381 of 10,232). In the three months after the 1,025 most similar days, the median change was +5.0% and 65% of them ended higher. Historical context, not a forecast.
Similar days
Three ways of choosing "similar", each stated. The default is the return band; the others are there because a single rule is a choice, and a reader should see how much the answer depends on it.
What happened next
For each comparable session, the change from its close to the close 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, 3 months later. Rows are trading sessions. An analogue too close to the end of the data to have a full horizon is left out of that horizon, so each row's sample size is its own.
| After | Sessions | Median | Mean | Share higher | 25th pct | 75th pct | Worst | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 1036 | −0.00% | +0.10% | 50% | −0.79% | +1.01% | −6.84% | +10.52% |
| 1 week | 1036 | +0.48% | +0.59% | 56% | −1.82% | +2.70% | −20.16% | +25.29% |
| 1 month | 1030 | +2.20% | +2.38% | 63% | −2.68% | +6.49% | −35.89% | +52.04% |
| 3 months | 1025 | +5.03% | +6.74% | 65% | −3.23% | +13.85% | −32.35% | +102.62% |
Historical distribution
A distribution, not a prediction. The one-month outcomes after the nearest analogues, and every horizon as dots.
Distribution of 1030 outcomes from −35.89% to +52.04%; the tallest bar holds 424.
Similar historical dates
| Date | Move | +1 day | +1 week | +1 month | +3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | +0.95% | +1.75% | +0.09% | +3.99% | — |
| 20-day volatility 59.9%; drawdown -8.4%; 20-day trend +27.10%; volume z -0.6 | |||||
| Aug 25, 2023 | +0.94% | +0.22% | +1.76% | −3.36% | +16.86% |
| 20-day volatility 17.7%; drawdown -10.2%; 20-day trend −4.55%; volume z -0.0 | |||||
| Aug 14, 2023 | +0.94% | −0.67% | −0.67% | +3.71% | +14.08% |
| 20-day volatility 28.4%; drawdown -9.9%; 20-day trend −6.27%; volume z -0.9 | |||||
| Sep 14, 2021 | +0.94% | +1.68% | −1.66% | −1.16% | +13.21% |
| 20-day volatility 15.2%; drawdown -1.6%; 20-day trend +1.76%; volume z 0.1 | |||||
| Sep 30, 2019 | +0.94% | −1.41% | −1.37% | +2.73% | +13.35% |
| 20-day volatility 17.4%; drawdown -1.6%; 20-day trend +0.85%; volume z -1.1 | |||||
| Nov 16, 2018 | +0.94% | −3.39% | −1.68% | −4.25% | +1.03% |
| 20-day volatility 40.1%; drawdown -6.3%; 20-day trend −0.34%; volume z -0.6 | |||||
| Dec 6, 2013 | +0.95% | +0.91% | −4.35% | −6.78% | −0.89% |
| 20-day volatility 18.3%; drawdown -35.6%; 20-day trend +2.29%; volume z -0.3 | |||||
| Oct 14, 2013 | +0.94% | +0.12% | +1.57% | +8.45% | +3.86% |
| 20-day volatility 17.6%; drawdown -42.2%; 20-day trend +5.03%; volume z -1.0 | |||||
| Feb 1, 2011 | +0.94% | −0.18% | +1.04% | −6.40% | −7.79% |
| 20-day volatility 22.5%; drawdown -53.0%; 20-day trend +0.04%; volume z -0.2 | |||||
| Mar 23, 2010 | +0.95% | −0.77% | −0.37% | +5.05% | −13.76% |
| 20-day volatility 10.6%; drawdown -49.8%; 20-day trend +5.47%; volume z -0.4 | |||||
| Aug 24, 2009 | +0.94% | −0.00% | +0.04% | +4.34% | +20.21% |
| 20-day volatility 19.7%; drawdown -58.6%; 20-day trend +6.62%; volume z 0.1 | |||||
| Jul 3, 2007 | +0.94% | −0.10% | −1.77% | −1.67% | −1.07% |
| 20-day volatility 18.1%; drawdown -49.6%; 20-day trend −1.83%; volume z -1.4 | |||||
| May 18, 2005 | +0.94% | +0.86% | +0.04% | −2.57% | +4.86% |
| 20-day volatility 22.6%; drawdown -56.9%; 20-day trend +5.67%; volume z 0.1 | |||||
| May 1, 2002 | +0.94% | −2.92% | +4.21% | −3.49% | −9.04% |
| 20-day volatility 36.9%; drawdown -55.7%; 20-day trend −6.36%; volume z 0.9 | |||||
| Apr 30, 2001 | +0.94% | +3.57% | +5.36% | +2.13% | −2.88% |
| 20-day volatility 53.4%; drawdown -43.1%; 20-day trend +23.89%; volume z -0.9 | |||||
| Dec 26, 2000 | +0.94% | −0.93% | +2.27% | +36.53% | +18.53% |
| 20-day volatility 87.4%; drawdown -60.7%; 20-day trend −33.69%; volume z -1.4 | |||||
| Aug 9, 1994 | +0.94% | +1.17% | +2.57% | +8.29% | +15.65% |
| 20-day volatility 38.5%; drawdown -1.8%; 20-day trend +11.46%; volume z -0.9 | |||||
| Jun 20, 1994 | +0.94% | −1.64% | −3.04% | −9.58% | +6.31% |
| 20-day volatility 27.9%; drawdown -1.8%; 20-day trend +9.46%; volume z -0.4 | |||||
| Nov 11, 1992 | +0.94% | −0.27% | −1.87% | −7.87% | −9.07% |
| 20-day volatility 24.7%; drawdown 0.0%; 20-day trend +12.28%; volume z 0.6 | |||||
| Sep 21, 1988 | +0.94% | +1.40% | −1.40% | −0.47% | −4.65% |
| 20-day volatility 36.4%; drawdown -32.0%; 20-day trend +8.86%; volume z -1.9 | |||||
How different is today?
The same conditions measured on the day of each analogue, against today. A move of the same size in a different regime is a different event.
| Condition | Today | Analogue median | Today is |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20-day realised volatility (annualised) | 19.2% | 24.3% | below |
| 20-day trend | 4.0% | 3.2% | positive |
| Drawdown from the high | -2.6% | -15.8% | below |
| Volume, z-score vs 20 days | -5.1 σ | — |
- Today's volatility is lower than in most historical analogues.
- The 20-day trend today is positive; among the analogues it was mostly positive.
- Today's drawdown is shallower than in most historical analogues.
- Current conditions differ from the historical cases in ways the table shows and in ways it cannot.
Where the numbers come from
Daily closes from Twelve Data, series MSFT, 1986 through Oct 26, 2026. Moves are day-over-day percentage changes in the close. The full method, the definitions and what this tool does not claim are on the methodology page. Provenance for every dataset is in the source manifest.
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