Meta Platforms fell 0.10% on Oct 26, 2026. How unusual is that?
Historical context, not a forecast. Every figure on this page describes what happened after past moves. None of it says what happens after this one. Historical market behaviour does not predict future results.
On the record. Meta Platforms fell 0.10% on Oct 26, 2026. A move that size or larger has occurred on 95.1% of trading days since 2012 (3,451 of 3,628). In the three months after the 328 most similar days, the median change was +7.1% and 71% of them ended higher. Historical context, not a forecast.
Similar days
Three ways of choosing "similar", each stated. The default is the return band; the others are there because a single rule is a choice, and a reader should see how much the answer depends on it.
What happened next
For each comparable session, the change from its close to the close 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, 3 months later. Rows are trading sessions. An analogue too close to the end of the data to have a full horizon is left out of that horizon, so each row's sample size is its own.
| After | Sessions | Median | Mean | Share higher | 25th pct | 75th pct | Worst | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 332 | +0.04% | +0.11% | 51% | −0.92% | +1.24% | −9.37% | +9.06% |
| 1 week | 332 | +0.40% | +0.45% | 56% | −1.59% | +2.63% | −28.18% | +21.36% |
| 1 month | 329 | +2.76% | +2.95% | 65% | −2.21% | +7.79% | −34.12% | +48.33% |
| 3 months | 328 | +7.12% | +7.38% | 71% | −1.66% | +14.05% | −43.40% | +102.46% |
Historical distribution
A distribution, not a prediction. The one-month outcomes after the nearest analogues, and every horizon as dots.
Distribution of 329 outcomes from −34.12% to +48.33%; the tallest bar holds 119.
Similar historical dates
| Date | Move | +1 day | +1 week | +1 month | +3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | −0.09% | −2.60% | +8.40% | +3.70% | +8.17% |
| 20-day volatility 19.8%; drawdown -21.5%; 20-day trend −4.50%; volume z 0.3 | |||||
| Jul 7, 2025 | −0.09% | +0.32% | +0.36% | +6.28% | −1.08% |
| 20-day volatility 24.4%; drawdown -2.7%; 20-day trend +4.93%; volume z -0.8 | |||||
| Jun 4, 2024 | −0.10% | +3.79% | +6.39% | +13.19% | +7.49% |
| 20-day volatility 20.0%; drawdown -9.5%; 20-day trend +2.43%; volume z -2.2 | |||||
| Apr 16, 2024 | −0.09% | −1.12% | −0.73% | −3.65% | −7.56% |
| 20-day volatility 23.3%; drawdown -5.2%; 20-day trend +0.56%; volume z -0.6 | |||||
| Jun 6, 2023 | −0.10% | −2.77% | +0.07% | +7.16% | +10.35% |
| 20-day volatility 19.6%; drawdown -29.1%; 20-day trend +16.23%; volume z -0.5 | |||||
| Jan 24, 2023 | −0.09% | −1.15% | +4.07% | +20.19% | +45.00% |
| 20-day volatility 28.4%; drawdown -62.5%; 20-day trend +22.22%; volume z -0.7 | |||||
| Aug 18, 2022 | −0.11% | −3.84% | −3.37% | −15.25% | −35.17% |
| 20-day volatility 55.7%; drawdown -54.3%; 20-day trend −4.65%; volume z -0.9 | |||||
| Aug 19, 2021 | −0.09% | +1.20% | +2.61% | +0.16% | −4.04% |
| 20-day volatility 29.1%; drawdown -4.9%; 20-day trend +1.12%; volume z -0.3 | |||||
| Jan 10, 2020 | −0.11% | +1.77% | +1.87% | −4.98% | −19.84% |
| 20-day volatility 21.4%; drawdown -0.1%; 20-day trend +7.81%; volume z -0.4 | |||||
| Mar 12, 2019 | −0.09% | +0.84% | −6.02% | +3.43% | +3.59% |
| 20-day volatility 20.2%; drawdown -21.0%; 20-day trend +3.70%; volume z -0.9 | |||||
| May 15, 2017 | −0.09% | −0.27% | −1.30% | +0.04% | +13.69% |
| 20-day volatility 11.3%; drawdown -1.7%; 20-day trend +6.20%; volume z -0.4 | |||||
| Mar 17, 2017 | −0.11% | +0.07% | +0.36% | +0.80% | +7.72% |
| 20-day volatility 9.5%; drawdown -0.1%; 20-day trend +4.48%; volume z 1.5 | |||||
| Mar 7, 2017 | −0.09% | +0.31% | +1.47% | +3.31% | +11.30% |
| 20-day volatility 11.2%; drawdown -0.1%; 20-day trend +3.97%; volume z -0.5 | |||||
| Feb 13, 2017 | −0.10% | −0.15% | −0.25% | +4.23% | +12.04% |
| 20-day volatility 15.8%; drawdown -0.1%; 20-day trend +4.45%; volume z -0.7 | |||||
| Dec 6, 2016 | −0.10% | +0.55% | +2.56% | +5.20% | +17.84% |
| 20-day volatility 27.7%; drawdown -12.0%; 20-day trend −3.96%; volume z -0.7 | |||||
| Apr 13, 2016 | −0.09% | +0.30% | +1.73% | +8.84% | +5.67% |
| 20-day volatility 21.8%; drawdown -4.8%; 20-day trend −0.14%; volume z 6.4 | |||||
| Dec 15, 2015 | −0.11% | +2.14% | +0.92% | −9.16% | +6.19% |
| 20-day volatility 25.2%; drawdown -4.1%; 20-day trend +0.49%; volume z -0.1 | |||||
| May 21, 2015 | −0.09% | +0.07% | −1.60% | +5.29% | +12.52% |
| 20-day volatility 19.8%; drawdown -5.7%; 20-day trend −2.34%; volume z -1.0 | |||||
| May 20, 2015 | −0.10% | −0.09% | −0.50% | +2.43% | +18.32% |
| 20-day volatility 21.7%; drawdown -5.6%; 20-day trend −4.82%; volume z -0.4 | |||||
| Aug 9, 2013 | −0.10% | −0.73% | −3.69% | +13.25% | +23.53% |
| 20-day volatility 107.6%; drawdown -1.8%; 20-day trend +48.59%; volume z -0.5 | |||||
How different is today?
The same conditions measured on the day of each analogue, against today. A move of the same size in a different regime is a different event.
| Condition | Today | Analogue median | Today is |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20-day realised volatility (annualised) | 38.8% | 25.2% | above |
| 20-day trend | -10.3% | 3.5% | negative |
| Drawdown from the high | -18.7% | -6.3% | above |
| Volume, z-score vs 20 days | -2.6 σ | — |
- Today's volatility is elevated relative to most historical analogues.
- The 20-day trend today is negative; among the analogues it was mostly positive.
- Today's drawdown is deeper than in most historical analogues.
- Current conditions differ from the historical cases in ways the table shows and in ways it cannot.
Where the numbers come from
Daily closes from Twelve Data, series META, 2012 through Oct 26, 2026. Moves are day-over-day percentage changes in the close. The full method, the definitions and what this tool does not claim are on the methodology page. Provenance for every dataset is in the source manifest.
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