Alphabet fell 0.46% on Oct 26, 2026. How unusual is that?
Historical context, not a forecast. Every figure on this page describes what happened after past moves. None of it says what happens after this one. Historical market behaviour does not predict future results.
On the record. Alphabet fell 0.46% on Oct 26, 2026. A move that size or larger has occurred on 72.0% of trading days since 2004 (4,018 of 5,580). In the three months after the 729 most similar days, the median change was +5.9% and 66% of them ended higher. Historical context, not a forecast.
Similar days
Three ways of choosing "similar", each stated. The default is the return band; the others are there because a single rule is a choice, and a reader should see how much the answer depends on it.
What happened next
For each comparable session, the change from its close to the close 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, 3 months later. Rows are trading sessions. An analogue too close to the end of the data to have a full horizon is left out of that horizon, so each row's sample size is its own.
| After | Sessions | Median | Mean | Share higher | 25th pct | 75th pct | Worst | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 736 | +0.10% | +0.17% | 54% | −0.77% | +1.05% | −9.77% | +11.19% |
| 1 week | 736 | +0.78% | +0.67% | 60% | −1.50% | +2.76% | −15.35% | +16.05% |
| 1 month | 733 | +2.07% | +2.25% | 64% | −2.25% | +6.32% | −29.58% | +34.05% |
| 3 months | 729 | +5.92% | +6.39% | 66% | −3.30% | +15.39% | −37.71% | +63.38% |
Historical distribution
A distribution, not a prediction. The one-month outcomes after the nearest analogues, and every horizon as dots.
Distribution of 733 outcomes from −29.58% to +34.05%; the tallest bar holds 220.
Similar historical dates
| Date | Move | +1 day | +1 week | +1 month | +3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25, 2026 | −0.46% | −1.84% | +4.71% | −4.99% | −0.39% |
| 20-day volatility 32.6%; drawdown -14.6%; 20-day trend −11.60%; volume z 0.9 | |||||
| Oct 8, 2025 | −0.46% | −1.26% | +2.62% | +16.41% | +33.04% |
| 20-day volatility 22.2%; drawdown -4.0%; 20-day trend +2.28%; volume z -1.2 | |||||
| Jun 17, 2025 | −0.46% | −1.49% | −3.00% | +5.18% | +41.82% |
| 20-day volatility 24.2%; drawdown -14.7%; 20-day trend +5.65%; volume z -1.0 | |||||
| Aug 1, 2024 | −0.45% | −2.40% | −5.11% | −4.32% | +2.17% |
| 20-day volatility 29.6%; drawdown -10.7%; 20-day trend −8.10%; volume z -0.0 | |||||
| Mar 25, 2024 | −0.46% | +0.40% | +2.99% | +6.04% | +22.63% |
| 20-day volatility 27.6%; drawdown -2.2%; 20-day trend +9.09%; volume z -1.5 | |||||
| Feb 10, 2023 | −0.46% | +0.04% | −0.23% | −0.63% | +24.26% |
| 20-day volatility 55.6%; drawdown -36.9%; 20-day trend +3.77%; volume z 0.4 | |||||
| Sep 14, 2020 | −0.46% | +1.74% | −5.22% | +3.86% | +17.63% |
| 20-day volatility 34.8%; drawdown -12.1%; 20-day trend +0.28%; volume z 0.6 | |||||
| Dec 24, 2019 | −0.46% | +1.34% | +1.80% | +6.49% | −13.50% |
| 20-day volatility 10.6%; drawdown -1.2%; 20-day trend +2.97%; volume z -1.6 | |||||
| Apr 9, 2019 | −0.46% | +0.31% | +2.43% | −2.89% | −5.14% |
| 20-day volatility 16.0%; drawdown -6.4%; 20-day trend +0.45%; volume z -1.1 | |||||
| Oct 10, 2017 | −0.45% | +1.81% | +2.35% | +7.14% | +12.39% |
| 20-day volatility 14.8%; drawdown -1.6%; 20-day trend +4.35%; volume z -1.0 | |||||
| May 5, 2017 | −0.47% | +0.89% | +0.51% | +4.88% | −0.47% |
| 20-day volatility 16.4%; drawdown -0.5%; 20-day trend +12.45%; volume z 0.1 | |||||
| Oct 3, 2016 | −0.46% | +0.30% | +1.72% | +0.64% | +0.95% |
| 20-day volatility 15.5%; drawdown -1.9%; 20-day trend +0.44%; volume z -0.1 | |||||
| Dec 30, 2015 | −0.46% | −1.56% | −6.24% | −2.47% | −2.61% |
| 20-day volatility 19.4%; drawdown -0.5%; 20-day trend +0.83%; volume z -1.0 | |||||
| Jun 11, 2015 | −0.46% | −0.47% | +1.12% | +3.94% | +18.37% |
| 20-day volatility 15.3%; drawdown -9.9%; 20-day trend +1.96%; volume z -0.8 | |||||
| Aug 28, 2014 | −0.46% | +0.35% | +3.01% | +1.29% | −5.62% |
| 20-day volatility 15.1%; drawdown -5.0%; 20-day trend +0.13%; volume z -0.1 | |||||
| Mar 14, 2013 | −0.46% | −0.88% | −1.25% | −4.82% | +6.75% |
| 20-day volatility 16.0%; drawdown -2.0%; 20-day trend +4.94%; volume z -1.1 | |||||
| Dec 5, 2012 | −0.46% | +0.48% | +1.42% | +6.82% | +20.89% |
| 20-day volatility 21.9%; drawdown -10.4%; 20-day trend +0.89%; volume z -0.6 | |||||
| Oct 22, 2012 | −0.46% | +0.25% | +0.24% | −1.58% | +11.05% |
| 20-day volatility 31.7%; drawdown -11.6%; 20-day trend −9.44%; volume z 0.0 | |||||
| Feb 19, 2010 | −0.45% | +0.38% | −2.58% | +3.10% | −12.16% |
| 20-day volatility 26.2%; drawdown -27.1%; 20-day trend −7.24%; volume z -0.7 | |||||
| Sep 6, 2005 | −0.46% | +2.70% | +8.56% | +8.22% | +41.36% |
| 20-day volatility 19.9%; drawdown -8.5%; 20-day trend −1.42%; volume z -0.8 | |||||
How different is today?
The same conditions measured on the day of each analogue, against today. A move of the same size in a different regime is a different event.
| Condition | Today | Analogue median | Today is |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20-day realised volatility (annualised) | 20.9% | 22.1% | similar |
| 20-day trend | -7.0% | 2.2% | negative |
| Drawdown from the high | -20.8% | -8.5% | above |
| Volume, z-score vs 20 days | -4.2 σ | — |
- Today's volatility is in line with the historical analogues.
- The 20-day trend today is negative; among the analogues it was mostly positive.
- Today's drawdown is deeper than in most historical analogues.
- Current conditions differ from the historical cases in ways the table shows and in ways it cannot.
Where the numbers come from
Daily closes from Twelve Data, series GOOGL, 2004 through Oct 26, 2026. Moves are day-over-day percentage changes in the close. The full method, the definitions and what this tool does not claim are on the methodology page. Provenance for every dataset is in the source manifest.
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