Gold rose 0.58% on Oct 26, 2026. How unusual is that?
Historical context, not a forecast. Every figure on this page describes what happened after past moves. None of it says what happens after this one. Historical market behaviour does not predict future results.
On the record. Gold rose 0.58% on Oct 26, 2026. A move that size or larger has occurred on 44.3% of trading days since 1979 (5,457 of 12,309). In the three months after the 1,931 most similar days, the median change was +0.9% and 55% of them ended higher. Historical context, not a forecast.
Similar days
Three ways of choosing "similar", each stated. The default is the return band; the others are there because a single rule is a choice, and a reader should see how much the answer depends on it.
What happened next
For each comparable session, the change from its close to the close 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, 3 months later. Rows are trading sessions. An analogue too close to the end of the data to have a full horizon is left out of that horizon, so each row's sample size is its own.
| After | Sessions | Median | Mean | Share higher | 25th pct | 75th pct | Worst | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 1936 | −0.03% | −0.01% | 46% | −0.49% | +0.47% | −6.80% | +4.68% |
| 1 week | 1936 | +0.14% | +0.15% | 53% | −1.07% | +1.36% | −13.64% | +12.49% |
| 1 month | 1933 | +0.16% | +0.61% | 51% | −2.14% | +3.09% | −19.27% | +37.79% |
| 3 months | 1931 | +0.90% | +1.74% | 55% | −3.40% | +6.17% | −25.42% | +39.81% |
Historical distribution
A distribution, not a prediction. The one-month outcomes after the nearest analogues, and every horizon as dots.
Distribution of 1933 outcomes from −19.27% to +37.79%; the tallest bar holds 725.
Similar historical dates
| Date | Move | +1 day | +1 week | +1 month | +3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | +0.58% | +1.44% | +0.56% | — | — |
| 20-day volatility 17.9%; drawdown -22.4%; 20-day trend −5.56% | |||||
| Jan 14, 2025 | +0.58% | +0.73% | +1.27% | +6.95% | +15.20% |
| 20-day volatility 8.9%; drawdown -4.1%; 20-day trend +1.77% | |||||
| Oct 30, 2020 | +0.58% | +0.91% | +3.92% | −5.37% | −1.81% |
| 20-day volatility 14.9%; drawdown -9.0%; 20-day trend −1.09% | |||||
| Oct 16, 2019 | +0.58% | +0.14% | +0.16% | −1.25% | +3.93% |
| 20-day volatility 13.5%; drawdown -21.6%; 20-day trend −0.28% | |||||
| Jul 29, 2019 | +0.58% | +0.27% | +2.58% | +8.11% | +5.38% |
| 20-day volatility 16.0%; drawdown -24.9%; 20-day trend +3.08% | |||||
| Dec 28, 2017 | +0.58% | +0.60% | +2.17% | +4.27% | +3.85% |
| 20-day volatility 8.5%; drawdown -31.9%; 20-day trend +1.58% | |||||
| Oct 15, 2013 | +0.58% | +0.06% | +4.67% | −0.14% | −2.63% |
| 20-day volatility 25.5%; drawdown -32.6%; 20-day trend −2.20% | |||||
| May 15, 2009 | +0.58% | −1.45% | +2.75% | −0.36% | +1.72% |
| 20-day volatility 15.8%; drawdown -7.1%; 20-day trend +7.23% | |||||
| Jan 2, 2007 | +0.58% | −2.00% | −4.22% | +1.98% | +3.61% |
| 20-day volatility 13.3%; drawdown -23.3%; 20-day trend −0.84% | |||||
| Aug 2, 2006 | +0.58% | −0.91% | −0.05% | −3.69% | −7.14% |
| 20-day volatility 25.3%; drawdown -22.0%; 20-day trend +3.58% | |||||
| Feb 2, 2006 | +0.58% | −0.84% | −1.48% | −1.29% | +16.62% |
| 20-day volatility 20.3%; drawdown -31.4%; 20-day trend +9.03% | |||||
| May 14, 2004 | +0.58% | +0.61% | +2.07% | +1.67% | +5.03% |
| 20-day volatility 18.2%; drawdown -54.8%; 20-day trend −5.85% | |||||
| Sep 12, 2002 | +0.58% | −0.83% | +1.19% | −0.86% | +1.33% |
| 20-day volatility 13.9%; drawdown -61.7%; 20-day trend +1.53% | |||||
| Oct 10, 1997 | +0.58% | −0.36% | −1.33% | −5.92% | −14.77% |
| 20-day volatility 12.4%; drawdown -60.5%; 20-day trend +1.70% | |||||
| Jul 8, 1997 | +0.58% | −0.53% | −0.56% | −0.41% | +4.69% |
| 20-day volatility 11.2%; drawdown -61.7%; 20-day trend −7.03% | |||||
| Jan 16, 1997 | +0.58% | +0.28% | −0.73% | −2.76% | −3.53% |
| 20-day volatility 8.4%; drawdown -57.5%; 20-day trend −4.01% | |||||
| Apr 9, 1984 | +0.58% | −0.29% | −0.60% | −2.56% | −9.99% |
| 20-day volatility 10.8%; drawdown -54.2%; 20-day trend −3.36% | |||||
| Sep 1, 1983 | +0.58% | +0.22% | −0.46% | −5.54% | −3.82% |
| 20-day volatility 13.4%; drawdown -50.1%; 20-day trend +0.63% | |||||
| Jun 3, 1982 | +0.58% | −0.50% | +2.00% | −2.39% | +26.49% |
| 20-day volatility 18.3%; drawdown -61.6%; 20-day trend −4.23% | |||||
| Sep 5, 1980 | +0.58% | +3.23% | +5.30% | +3.81% | −3.61% |
| 20-day volatility 21.5%; drawdown -22.0%; 20-day trend +3.33% | |||||
How different is today?
The same conditions measured on the day of each analogue, against today. A move of the same size in a different regime is a different event.
| Condition | Today | Analogue median | Today is |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20-day realised volatility (annualised) | 14.3% | 12.9% | similar |
| 20-day trend | -3.5% | 0.5% | negative |
| Drawdown from the high | -24.6% | -42.0% | below |
- Today's volatility is in line with the historical analogues.
- The 20-day trend today is negative; among the analogues it was mixed.
- Today's drawdown is shallower than in most historical analogues.
- Current conditions differ from the historical cases in ways the table shows and in ways it cannot.
Where the numbers come from
Daily closes from Twelve Data, series XAU/USD, 1979 through Oct 26, 2026. Moves are day-over-day percentage changes in the close. The full method, the definitions and what this tool does not claim are on the methodology page. Provenance for every dataset is in the source manifest.
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