Dow Jones (DIA) rose 0.18% on Oct 26, 2026. How unusual is that?
Historical context, not a forecast. Every figure on this page describes what happened after past moves. None of it says what happens after this one. Historical market behaviour does not predict future results.
On the record. Dow Jones (DIA) rose 0.18% on Oct 26, 2026. A move that size or larger has occurred on 78.8% of trading days since 1998 (5,699 of 7,235). In the three months after the 1,641 most similar days, the median change was +2.3% and 66% of them ended higher. Historical context, not a forecast.
Similar days
Three ways of choosing "similar", each stated. The default is the return band; the others are there because a single rule is a choice, and a reader should see how much the answer depends on it.
What happened next
For each comparable session, the change from its close to the close 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, 3 months later. Rows are trading sessions. An analogue too close to the end of the data to have a full horizon is left out of that horizon, so each row's sample size is its own.
| After | Sessions | Median | Mean | Share higher | 25th pct | 75th pct | Worst | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 1652 | +0.04% | +0.03% | 53% | −0.38% | +0.45% | −4.28% | +4.01% |
| 1 week | 1651 | +0.33% | +0.15% | 58% | −0.71% | +1.25% | −15.92% | +8.23% |
| 1 month | 1647 | +0.98% | +0.54% | 62% | −1.52% | +2.87% | −31.55% | +15.72% |
| 3 months | 1641 | +2.29% | +1.65% | 66% | −1.58% | +5.91% | −29.56% | +23.15% |
Historical distribution
A distribution, not a prediction. The one-month outcomes after the nearest analogues, and every horizon as dots.
Distribution of 1647 outcomes from −31.55% to +15.72%; the tallest bar holds 802.
Similar historical dates
| Date | Move | +1 day | +1 week | +1 month | +3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2025 | +0.18% | +0.52% | −0.35% | +2.27% | +3.98% |
| 20-day volatility 7.1%; drawdown 0.0%; 20-day trend +1.76%; volume z 0.5 | |||||
| Jan 12, 2021 | +0.18% | −0.04% | +0.33% | +1.27% | +8.62% |
| 20-day volatility 10.0%; drawdown -0.1%; 20-day trend +3.26%; volume z -0.8 | |||||
| Aug 6, 2018 | +0.18% | +0.50% | −1.10% | +1.99% | −0.94% |
| 20-day volatility 7.7%; drawdown -4.2%; 20-day trend +2.83%; volume z -1.0 | |||||
| May 23, 2018 | +0.18% | −0.29% | −1.79% | −1.18% | +3.44% |
| 20-day volatility 10.3%; drawdown -6.5%; 20-day trend +3.29%; volume z -0.1 | |||||
| Sep 1, 2017 | +0.18% | −1.02% | +0.38% | +2.87% | +10.24% |
| 20-day volatility 7.4%; drawdown -0.4%; 20-day trend −0.29%; volume z -0.6 | |||||
| Feb 22, 2017 | +0.18% | +0.18% | +1.72% | −0.55% | +0.81% |
| 20-day volatility 6.7%; drawdown 0.0%; 20-day trend +4.33%; volume z -1.5 | |||||
| Nov 11, 2016 | +0.18% | +0.16% | −0.01% | +5.71% | +8.86% |
| 20-day volatility 10.6%; drawdown 0.0%; 20-day trend +3.96%; volume z 0.7 | |||||
| Aug 17, 2016 | +0.18% | +0.13% | −0.77% | −2.76% | +1.74% |
| 20-day volatility 5.8%; drawdown -0.2%; 20-day trend +0.17%; volume z 0.1 | |||||
| Jul 19, 2016 | +0.18% | +0.19% | −0.44% | +0.37% | −2.53% |
| 20-day volatility 18.3%; drawdown 0.0%; 20-day trend +4.29%; volume z -0.9 | |||||
| Mar 21, 2016 | +0.18% | −0.18% | +0.03% | +2.69% | +1.02% |
| 20-day volatility 11.7%; drawdown -3.8%; 20-day trend +6.07%; volume z -0.8 | |||||
| Nov 20, 2014 | +0.18% | +0.25% | +0.48% | +1.19% | +2.63% |
| 20-day volatility 6.7%; drawdown 0.0%; 20-day trend +6.49%; volume z -1.5 | |||||
| Aug 26, 2014 | +0.18% | +0.05% | −0.12% | −1.03% | +4.02% |
| 20-day volatility 10.7%; drawdown -0.1%; 20-day trend +1.27%; volume z -0.6 | |||||
| Aug 30, 2011 | +0.18% | +0.52% | −1.22% | −3.44% | +0.18% |
| 20-day volatility 43.3%; drawdown -18.5%; 20-day trend −2.63%; volume z -0.8 | |||||
| Aug 13, 2007 | +0.18% | −1.28% | −0.92% | +0.81% | −1.41% |
| 20-day volatility 19.9%; drawdown -5.5%; 20-day trend −5.22%; volume z -0.8 | |||||
| Jun 10, 2005 | +0.18% | +0.16% | +0.83% | −0.07% | +1.51% |
| 20-day volatility 8.7%; drawdown -10.5%; 20-day trend +3.18%; volume z -0.3 | |||||
| Nov 23, 2004 | +0.18% | +0.04% | +0.65% | +3.01% | +2.30% |
| 20-day volatility 10.2%; drawdown -10.6%; 20-day trend +5.96%; volume z 0.3 | |||||
| Nov 28, 2003 | +0.18% | +1.04% | +0.73% | +6.37% | +8.18% |
| 20-day volatility 9.6%; drawdown -16.5%; 20-day trend −0.22%; volume z -4.3 | |||||
| Dec 12, 2001 | +0.18% | −1.64% | +1.94% | −0.08% | +6.97% |
| 20-day volatility 16.8%; drawdown -15.5%; 20-day trend +1.46%; volume z 0.0 | |||||
| Aug 9, 2001 | +0.18% | +1.05% | +1.07% | −6.50% | −5.19% |
| 20-day volatility 14.2%; drawdown -12.2%; 20-day trend −1.90%; volume z 4.3 | |||||
| Aug 25, 2000 | +0.18% | +0.40% | +0.26% | −5.42% | −6.39% |
| 20-day volatility 9.0%; drawdown -4.5%; 20-day trend +6.89%; volume z -2.0 | |||||
How different is today?
The same conditions measured on the day of each analogue, against today. A move of the same size in a different regime is a different event.
| Condition | Today | Analogue median | Today is |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20-day realised volatility (annualised) | 9.6% | 10.9% | similar |
| 20-day trend | 1.6% | 1.9% | positive |
| Drawdown from the high | -3.8% | -3.9% | similar |
| Volume, z-score vs 20 days | -4.2 σ | — |
- Today's volatility is in line with the historical analogues.
- The 20-day trend today is positive; among the analogues it was mostly positive.
- Today's drawdown is similar to the historical analogues.
- Current conditions differ from the historical cases in ways the table shows and in ways it cannot.
Where the numbers come from
Daily closes from Twelve Data, series DIA, 1998 through Oct 26, 2026. Moves are day-over-day percentage changes in the close. The full method, the definitions and what this tool does not claim are on the methodology page. Provenance for every dataset is in the source manifest.
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