Bitcoin fell 0.95% on Oct 25, 2026. How unusual is that?
Historical context, not a forecast. Every figure on this page describes what happened after past moves. None of it says what happens after this one. Historical market behaviour does not predict future results.
On the record. Bitcoin fell 0.95% on Oct 25, 2026. A move that size or larger has occurred on 62.4% of trading days since 2014 (2,691 of 4,310). In the three months after the 325 most similar days, the median change was +8.8% and 59% of them ended higher. Historical context, not a forecast.
Similar days
Three ways of choosing "similar", each stated. The default is the return band; the others are there because a single rule is a choice, and a reader should see how much the answer depends on it.
What happened next
For each comparable session, the change from its close to the close 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, 3 months later. Rows are calendar days, because this series is quoted every day. An analogue too close to the end of the data to have a full horizon is left out of that horizon, so each row's sample size is its own.
| After | Sessions | Median | Mean | Share higher | 25th pct | 75th pct | Worst | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 326 | +0.08% | −0.03% | 52% | −1.28% | +1.42% | −13.73% | +11.74% |
| 1 week | 326 | +0.11% | +0.15% | 52% | −3.44% | +4.96% | −45.54% | +33.30% |
| 1 month | 325 | +0.48% | +3.57% | 51% | −10.27% | +13.63% | −49.39% | +92.57% |
| 3 months | 325 | +8.82% | +19.54% | 59% | −12.46% | +35.11% | −58.12% | +326.05% |
Historical distribution
A distribution, not a prediction. The one-month outcomes after the nearest analogues, and every horizon as dots.
Distribution of 325 outcomes from −49.39% to +92.57%; the tallest bar holds 84.
Similar historical dates
| Date | Move | +1 day | +1 week | +1 month | +3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 7, 2026 | −0.96% | −1.89% | +2.52% | +1.46% | +34.92% |
| 20-day volatility 26.7%; drawdown -49.2%; 20-day trend −1.80% | |||||
| Jul 22, 2024 | −0.96% | −2.46% | −1.12% | −9.46% | −0.30% |
| 20-day volatility 43.5%; drawdown -7.5%; 20-day trend +8.91% | |||||
| Jul 5, 2024 | −0.96% | +2.82% | +2.27% | +2.75% | +9.58% |
| 20-day volatility 33.0%; drawdown -22.5%; 20-day trend −14.41% | |||||
| Jul 18, 2023 | −0.96% | +0.19% | −2.14% | −10.92% | −4.86% |
| 20-day volatility 23.7%; drawdown -55.8%; 20-day trend −0.80% | |||||
| Oct 30, 2022 | −0.94% | −0.79% | +1.34% | −20.32% | +15.03% |
| 20-day volatility 25.1%; drawdown -69.4%; 20-day trend +8.01% | |||||
| Oct 6, 2022 | −0.94% | −2.19% | −2.90% | +6.73% | −15.72% |
| 20-day volatility 35.8%; drawdown -70.4%; 20-day trend +0.90% | |||||
| Oct 5, 2022 | −0.94% | −0.94% | −4.94% | +4.99% | −16.38% |
| 20-day volatility 35.6%; drawdown -70.1%; 20-day trend +2.34% | |||||
| Aug 16, 2022 | −0.96% | −2.11% | −9.77% | −17.48% | −29.30% |
| 20-day volatility 29.6%; drawdown -64.7%; 20-day trend +3.81% | |||||
| Aug 4, 2022 | −0.95% | +3.01% | +5.98% | −12.23% | −10.61% |
| 20-day volatility 52.9%; drawdown -66.5%; 20-day trend +8.48% | |||||
| Jun 14, 2022 | −0.94% | +1.91% | −6.54% | −6.96% | −8.85% |
| 20-day volatility 75.8%; drawdown -67.2%; 20-day trend −24.98% | |||||
| Oct 2, 2021 | −0.94% | +1.02% | +15.22% | +27.80% | +0.12% |
| 20-day volatility 70.8%; drawdown -25.1%; 20-day trend +3.66% | |||||
| Jun 17, 2021 | −0.96% | −5.92% | −8.76% | −17.16% | +25.63% |
| 20-day volatility 76.1%; drawdown -40.3%; 20-day trend +6.31% | |||||
| Apr 17, 2020 | −0.96% | +3.07% | +6.51% | +37.49% | +29.66% |
| 20-day volatility 65.0%; drawdown -64.1%; 20-day trend +12.53% | |||||
| Jan 29, 2019 | −0.95% | +1.18% | +0.91% | +11.62% | +55.14% |
| 20-day volatility 43.6%; drawdown -82.7%; 20-day trend −15.15% | |||||
| Sep 11, 2017 | −0.96% | −1.10% | −2.63% | +14.35% | +301.02% |
| 20-day volatility 48.6%; drawdown -14.9%; 20-day trend +2.90% | |||||
| Apr 5, 2017 | −0.96% | +5.23% | +7.17% | +36.92% | +130.98% |
| 20-day volatility 79.1%; drawdown -12.4%; 20-day trend −3.58% | |||||
| Jan 20, 2017 | −0.95% | +3.44% | +3.17% | +18.51% | +39.77% |
| 20-day volatility 90.4%; drawdown -20.9%; 20-day trend −8.12% | |||||
| Sep 9, 2016 | −0.94% | +0.27% | −2.27% | −0.75% | +24.30% |
| 20-day volatility 20.7%; drawdown -19.2%; 20-day trend +6.91% | |||||
| Aug 5, 2015 | −0.96% | −1.10% | −5.60% | −18.17% | +44.99% |
| 20-day volatility 22.0%; drawdown -25.2%; 20-day trend +1.21% | |||||
| Jul 21, 2015 | −0.96% | +0.21% | +6.65% | −15.06% | −2.23% |
| 20-day volatility 46.3%; drawdown -26.6%; 20-day trend +7.07% | |||||
How different is today?
The same conditions measured on the day of each analogue, against today. A move of the same size in a different regime is a different event.
| Condition | Today | Analogue median | Today is |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20-day realised volatility (annualised) | 23.2% | 43.5% | below |
| 20-day trend | -6.9% | 0.6% | negative |
| Drawdown from the high | -35.9% | -35.2% | similar |
- Today's volatility is lower than in most historical analogues.
- The 20-day trend today is negative; among the analogues it was mixed.
- Today's drawdown is similar to the historical analogues.
- Current conditions differ from the historical cases in ways the table shows and in ways it cannot.
Where the numbers come from
Daily closes from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), series CBBTCUSD, 2014 through Oct 25, 2026. Moves are day-over-day percentage changes in the close. The full method, the definitions and what this tool does not claim are on the methodology page. Provenance for every dataset is in the source manifest.
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