Amazon rose 0.29% on Oct 26, 2026. How unusual is that?
Historical context, not a forecast. Every figure on this page describes what happened after past moves. None of it says what happens after this one. Historical market behaviour does not predict future results.
On the record. Amazon rose 0.29% on Oct 26, 2026. A move that size or larger has occurred on 87.5% of trading days since 1997 (6,483 of 7,406). In the three months after the 742 most similar days, the median change was +6.4% and 64% of them ended higher. Historical context, not a forecast.
Similar days
Three ways of choosing "similar", each stated. The default is the return band; the others are there because a single rule is a choice, and a reader should see how much the answer depends on it.
What happened next
For each comparable session, the change from its close to the close 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, 3 months later. Rows are trading sessions. An analogue too close to the end of the data to have a full horizon is left out of that horizon, so each row's sample size is its own.
| After | Sessions | Median | Mean | Share higher | 25th pct | 75th pct | Worst | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 747 | +0.18% | +0.25% | 54% | −0.90% | +1.26% | −9.65% | +16.73% |
| 1 week | 746 | +0.60% | +0.62% | 56% | −2.10% | +3.17% | −18.53% | +28.52% |
| 1 month | 744 | +2.71% | +2.25% | 61% | −4.46% | +7.45% | −38.11% | +117.65% |
| 3 months | 742 | +6.37% | +7.85% | 64% | −3.83% | +17.25% | −44.69% | +190.99% |
Historical distribution
A distribution, not a prediction. The one-month outcomes after the nearest analogues, and every horizon as dots.
Distribution of 744 outcomes from −38.11% to +117.65%; the tallest bar holds 364.
Similar historical dates
| Date | Move | +1 day | +1 week | +1 month | +3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2025 | +0.28% | +0.23% | −2.99% | −1.31% | −7.29% |
| 20-day volatility 33.3%; drawdown -7.9%; 20-day trend −4.23%; volume z -0.3 | |||||
| Sep 3, 2025 | +0.29% | +4.29% | +1.92% | −1.58% | +3.73% |
| 20-day volatility 24.8%; drawdown -6.6%; 20-day trend +5.73%; volume z -0.6 | |||||
| Jul 15, 2025 | +0.29% | −1.40% | +0.49% | −0.79% | −2.77% |
| 20-day volatility 22.0%; drawdown -6.5%; 20-day trend +6.72%; volume z -0.5 | |||||
| Jun 10, 2025 | +0.29% | −2.03% | −1.28% | +3.41% | +5.85% |
| 20-day volatility 20.2%; drawdown -10.1%; 20-day trend +4.30%; volume z -0.8 | |||||
| Oct 31, 2023 | +0.29% | +2.94% | +7.23% | +9.77% | +19.68% |
| 20-day volatility 41.4%; drawdown -28.7%; 20-day trend +6.71%; volume z -0.2 | |||||
| Jul 14, 2023 | +0.28% | −0.83% | −3.47% | +4.37% | −1.74% |
| 20-day volatility 25.0%; drawdown -27.8%; 20-day trend +6.53%; volume z -0.0 | |||||
| Feb 27, 2019 | +0.29% | −0.08% | +1.70% | +8.06% | +10.85% |
| 20-day volatility 33.0%; drawdown -19.5%; 20-day trend +2.96%; volume z -0.7 | |||||
| May 31, 2018 | +0.29% | +0.73% | +3.66% | +4.31% | +22.61% |
| 20-day volatility 10.9%; drawdown 0.0%; 20-day trend +3.82%; volume z -0.0 | |||||
| Mar 9, 2017 | +0.29% | −0.06% | +0.05% | +4.91% | +18.44% |
| 20-day volatility 9.1%; drawdown -0.4%; 20-day trend +4.06%; volume z -1.4 | |||||
| Aug 22, 2016 | +0.29% | +0.39% | +1.56% | +3.98% | +0.09% |
| 20-day volatility 12.1%; drawdown -1.7%; 20-day trend +2.69%; volume z -0.7 | |||||
| Sep 18, 2012 | +0.29% | +1.13% | −2.43% | −4.35% | −0.29% |
| 20-day volatility 18.8%; drawdown -1.0%; 20-day trend +7.66%; volume z -0.9 | |||||
| Feb 7, 2011 | +0.28% | +3.76% | +7.93% | −4.18% | +13.81% |
| 20-day volatility 37.8%; drawdown -7.7%; 20-day trend −4.88%; volume z -0.1 | |||||
| May 17, 2010 | +0.30% | −2.04% | −5.27% | −1.56% | −2.20% |
| 20-day volatility 43.6%; drawdown -14.1%; 20-day trend −9.49%; volume z -0.8 | |||||
| May 3, 2010 | +0.28% | −5.57% | −4.51% | −8.13% | −12.67% |
| 20-day volatility 38.3%; drawdown -8.4%; 20-day trend +4.56%; volume z -0.7 | |||||
| Mar 5, 2010 | +0.30% | +0.93% | +2.26% | +5.16% | −4.76% |
| 20-day volatility 25.3%; drawdown -9.4%; 20-day trend +11.19%; volume z -0.9 | |||||
| Mar 3, 2010 | +0.29% | +2.10% | +3.67% | +4.70% | +0.33% |
| 20-day volatility 27.1%; drawdown -11.5%; 20-day trend +6.58%; volume z -0.9 | |||||
| Jan 16, 2009 | +0.29% | −6.11% | −3.80% | +20.86% | +50.36% |
| 20-day volatility 58.2%; drawdown -51.6%; 20-day trend −2.99%; volume z 0.1 | |||||
| Jan 19, 2006 | +0.29% | −1.19% | +0.52% | −11.83% | −18.25% |
| 20-day volatility 18.5%; drawdown -58.3%; 20-day trend −8.10%; volume z -0.6 | |||||
| Mar 17, 2005 | +0.30% | +0.56% | −3.21% | −2.86% | +4.74% |
| 20-day volatility 16.2%; drawdown -68.2%; 20-day trend −4.74%; volume z -0.7 | |||||
| Aug 20, 1998 | +0.29% | +0.44% | −7.84% | −33.79% | +27.01% |
| 20-day volatility 69.0%; drawdown -7.4%; 20-day trend +1.18%; volume z -1.1 | |||||
How different is today?
The same conditions measured on the day of each analogue, against today. A move of the same size in a different regime is a different event.
| Condition | Today | Analogue median | Today is |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20-day realised volatility (annualised) | 32.4% | 27.8% | similar |
| 20-day trend | 1.0% | 3.2% | positive |
| Drawdown from the high | -12.4% | -11.1% | similar |
| Volume, z-score vs 20 days | -4.8 σ | — |
- Today's volatility is in line with the historical analogues.
- The 20-day trend today is positive; among the analogues it was mostly positive.
- Today's drawdown is similar to the historical analogues.
- Current conditions differ from the historical cases in ways the table shows and in ways it cannot.
Where the numbers come from
Daily closes from Twelve Data, series AMZN, 1997 through Oct 26, 2026. Moves are day-over-day percentage changes in the close. The full method, the definitions and what this tool does not claim are on the methodology page. Provenance for every dataset is in the source manifest.
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