Apple fell 1.22% on Oct 26, 2026. How unusual is that?
Historical context, not a forecast. Every figure on this page describes what happened after past moves. None of it says what happens after this one. Historical market behaviour does not predict future results.
On the record. Apple fell 1.22% on Oct 26, 2026. A move that size or larger has occurred on 53.1% of trading days since 1980 (6,137 of 11,558). In the three months after the 800 most similar days, the median change was +5.7% and 59% of them ended higher. Historical context, not a forecast.
Similar days
Three ways of choosing "similar", each stated. The default is the return band; the others are there because a single rule is a choice, and a reader should see how much the answer depends on it.
What happened next
For each comparable session, the change from its close to the close 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, 3 months later. Rows are trading sessions. An analogue too close to the end of the data to have a full horizon is left out of that horizon, so each row's sample size is its own.
| After | Sessions | Median | Mean | Share higher | 25th pct | 75th pct | Worst | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 805 | −0.00% | +0.14% | 50% | −1.37% | +1.44% | −9.28% | +18.95% |
| 1 week | 804 | +0.57% | +0.62% | 54% | −2.98% | +3.83% | −22.22% | +44.29% |
| 1 month | 803 | +2.19% | +2.27% | 58% | −5.04% | +10.05% | −66.42% | +47.00% |
| 3 months | 800 | +5.75% | +6.24% | 59% | −8.38% | +20.37% | −76.23% | +153.06% |
Historical distribution
A distribution, not a prediction. The one-month outcomes after the nearest analogues, and every horizon as dots.
Distribution of 803 outcomes from −66.42% to +47.00%; the tallest bar holds 258.
Similar historical dates
| Date | Move | +1 day | +1 week | +1 month | +3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | −1.21% | −0.68% | −0.95% | −6.53% | −7.42% |
| 20-day volatility 16.9%; drawdown -1.9%; 20-day trend +3.91%; volume z -0.2 | |||||
| Apr 19, 2024 | −1.22% | +0.51% | +2.61% | +15.78% | +35.73% |
| 20-day volatility 23.3%; drawdown -16.7%; 20-day trend −3.72%; volume z 0.3 | |||||
| Jul 28, 2021 | −1.22% | +0.46% | +1.36% | +1.77% | +2.99% |
| 20-day volatility 22.8%; drawdown -2.8%; 20-day trend +6.34%; volume z 1.4 | |||||
| Jun 3, 2021 | −1.22% | +1.90% | +2.08% | +13.29% | +23.45% |
| 20-day volatility 21.9%; drawdown -13.7%; 20-day trend −3.56%; volume z -0.3 | |||||
| Dec 30, 2014 | −1.22% | −1.90% | −4.24% | +4.12% | +10.42% |
| 20-day volatility 23.3%; drawdown -5.4%; 20-day trend −2.22%; volume z -1.1 | |||||
| Oct 15, 2014 | −1.23% | −1.31% | +5.59% | +15.67% | +9.51% |
| 20-day volatility 22.7%; drawdown -5.6%; 20-day trend −3.98%; volume z 3.0 | |||||
| Apr 10, 2012 | −1.22% | −0.36% | −2.98% | −9.43% | −3.22% |
| 20-day volatility 25.8%; drawdown -1.2%; 20-day trend +13.85%; volume z 0.7 | |||||
| Mar 15, 2010 | −1.22% | +0.27% | +0.41% | +9.76% | +13.60% |
| 20-day volatility 20.4%; drawdown -1.2%; 20-day trend +11.71%; volume z -0.2 | |||||
| Jan 3, 2007 | −1.23% | +2.22% | +15.75% | +1.13% | +12.49% |
| 20-day volatility 31.7%; drawdown -8.7%; 20-day trend −8.23%; volume z 1.2 | |||||
| May 26, 2006 | −1.21% | −3.67% | −5.59% | −9.63% | +8.18% |
| 20-day volatility 28.2%; drawdown -25.8%; 20-day trend −9.72%; volume z -1.8 | |||||
| Oct 25, 2005 | −1.22% | +1.66% | +2.50% | +19.63% | +28.93% |
| 20-day volatility 51.5%; drawdown -1.2%; 20-day trend +4.98%; volume z -0.8 | |||||
| Oct 8, 1999 | −1.22% | +1.72% | +13.73% | +47.00% | +51.76% |
| 20-day volatility 77.0%; drawdown -17.1%; 20-day trend −15.33%; volume z -0.7 | |||||
| Nov 20, 1998 | −1.22% | +2.66% | −9.56% | +7.61% | +6.02% |
| 20-day volatility 50.4%; drawdown -51.5%; 20-day trend −0.53%; volume z -0.5 | |||||
| Jun 25, 1997 | −1.22% | −2.89% | −13.64% | +7.44% | +42.15% |
| 20-day volatility 28.4%; drawdown -79.2%; 20-day trend −11.03%; volume z 2.8 | |||||
| Apr 29, 1993 | −1.22% | +0.99% | +5.91% | +11.58% | −46.31% |
| 20-day volatility 32.7%; drawdown -30.2%; 20-day trend −1.46%; volume z -0.9 | |||||
| Jan 7, 1993 | −1.21% | +2.05% | +6.56% | −6.15% | −17.21% |
| 20-day volatility 31.0%; drawdown -16.2%; 20-day trend +4.95%; volume z 1.5 | |||||
| May 15, 1992 | −1.22% | −0.41% | −1.86% | −18.76% | −26.19% |
| 20-day volatility 38.6%; drawdown -16.7%; 20-day trend +2.75%; volume z -0.8 | |||||
| Apr 24, 1991 | −1.22% | −3.70% | −22.22% | −25.72% | −25.93% |
| 20-day volatility 66.3%; drawdown -16.5%; 20-day trend −13.21%; volume z -0.6 | |||||
| Dec 31, 1986 | −1.22% | +0.93% | +10.49% | +37.04% | +64.81% |
| 20-day volatility 31.6%; drawdown -35.5%; 20-day trend −2.41%; volume z -1.0 | |||||
| Dec 29, 1986 | −1.22% | +1.23% | +8.02% | +36.73% | +54.32% |
| 20-day volatility 33.5%; drawdown -35.5%; 20-day trend +1.25%; volume z -1.4 | |||||
How different is today?
The same conditions measured on the day of each analogue, against today. A move of the same size in a different regime is a different event.
| Condition | Today | Analogue median | Today is |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20-day realised volatility (annualised) | 16.8% | 33.5% | below |
| 20-day trend | 1.5% | 0.0% | positive |
| Drawdown from the high | -1.4% | -26.2% | below |
| Volume, z-score vs 20 days | -4.9 σ | — |
- Today's volatility is lower than in most historical analogues.
- The 20-day trend today is positive; among the analogues it was mixed.
- Today's drawdown is shallower than in most historical analogues.
- Current conditions differ from the historical cases in ways the table shows and in ways it cannot.
Where the numbers come from
Daily closes from Twelve Data, series AAPL, 1980 through Oct 26, 2026. Moves are day-over-day percentage changes in the close. The full method, the definitions and what this tool does not claim are on the methodology page. Provenance for every dataset is in the source manifest.
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