10-year Treasury yield fell 0.17 pp on Oct 22, 2026. How unusual is that?
Historical context, not a forecast. Every figure on this page describes what happened after past moves. None of it says what happens after this one. Historical market behaviour does not predict future results.
On the record. 10-year Treasury yield fell 0.17 percentage points on Oct 22, 2026. A move that size or larger has occurred on 2.7% of trading days since 1962 (429 of 16,185). In the three months after the 399 most similar days, the median change was +0.0pp and 53% of them ended higher. Historical context, not a forecast.
Similar days
Three ways of choosing "similar", each stated. The default is the return band; the others are there because a single rule is a choice, and a reader should see how much the answer depends on it.
What happened next
For each comparable session, the change from its close to the close 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, 3 months later. Rows are trading sessions. An analogue too close to the end of the data to have a full horizon is left out of that horizon, so each row's sample size is its own.
| After | Sessions | Median | Mean | Share higher | 25th pct | 75th pct | Worst | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | 399 | -0.01 pp | -0.00 pp | 44% | -0.05 pp | +0.05 pp | -0.59 pp | +0.44 pp |
| 1 week | 399 | +0.01 pp | +0.01 pp | 50% | -0.11 pp | +0.11 pp | -1.16 pp | +1.36 pp |
| 1 month | 399 | -0.01 pp | -0.03 pp | 48% | -0.27 pp | +0.24 pp | -1.88 pp | +1.30 pp |
| 3 months | 399 | +0.04 pp | -0.08 pp | 53% | -0.48 pp | +0.36 pp | -3.36 pp | +3.09 pp |
Historical distribution
A distribution, not a prediction. The one-month outcomes after the nearest analogues, and every horizon as dots.
Distribution of 399 outcomes from -1.88 pp to +1.30 pp; the tallest bar holds 111.
Similar historical dates
| Date | Move | +1 day | +1 week | +1 month | +3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2023 | -0.17 pp | +0.08 pp | -0.01 pp | +0.21 pp | +0.33 pp |
| 20-day volatility 0.1 pp; 20-day trend -0.47 pp | |||||
| Jun 24, 2016 | -0.17 pp | -0.11 pp | -0.11 pp | +0.00 pp | +0.05 pp |
| 20-day volatility 0.1 pp; 20-day trend -0.26 pp | |||||
| Sep 18, 2013 | -0.17 pp | +0.07 pp | -0.06 pp | -0.09 pp | +0.25 pp |
| 20-day volatility 0.1 pp; 20-day trend -0.13 pp | |||||
| Oct 31, 2011 | -0.17 pp | -0.16 pp | -0.13 pp | -0.06 pp | -0.31 pp |
| 20-day volatility 0.1 pp; 20-day trend +0.25 pp | |||||
| Aug 4, 2011 | -0.17 pp | +0.11 pp | -0.13 pp | -0.45 pp | -0.38 pp |
| 20-day volatility 0.1 pp; 20-day trend -0.70 pp | |||||
| May 6, 2010 | -0.17 pp | +0.04 pp | +0.14 pp | -0.24 pp | -0.47 pp |
| 20-day volatility 0.1 pp; 20-day trend -0.50 pp | |||||
| Feb 10, 2009 | -0.17 pp | -0.12 pp | -0.16 pp | -0.01 pp | +0.27 pp |
| 20-day volatility 0.1 pp; 20-day trend +0.56 pp | |||||
| Dec 17, 2008 | -0.17 pp | -0.12 pp | +0.00 pp | +0.20 pp | +0.45 pp |
| 20-day volatility 0.1 pp; 20-day trend -1.33 pp | |||||
| Sep 5, 2003 | -0.17 pp | +0.06 pp | -0.08 pp | -0.18 pp | -0.06 pp |
| 20-day volatility 0.1 pp; 20-day trend +0.05 pp | |||||
| Sep 16, 1997 | -0.17 pp | -0.01 pp | -0.01 pp | -0.02 pp | -0.30 pp |
| 20-day volatility 0.1 pp; 20-day trend -0.10 pp | |||||
| Jul 29, 1994 | -0.17 pp | +0.01 pp | +0.16 pp | +0.12 pp | +0.70 pp |
| 20-day volatility 0.1 pp; 20-day trend -0.22 pp | |||||
| Feb 23, 1993 | -0.17 pp | +0.09 pp | +0.03 pp | +0.03 pp | +0.24 pp |
| 20-day volatility 0.1 pp; 20-day trend -0.56 pp | |||||
| Jul 2, 1992 | -0.17 pp | -0.03 pp | +0.00 pp | -0.21 pp | -0.70 pp |
| 20-day volatility 0.0 pp; 20-day trend -0.41 pp | |||||
| Oct 7, 1988 | -0.17 pp | +0.05 pp | +0.09 pp | +0.21 pp | +0.54 pp |
| 20-day volatility 0.1 pp; 20-day trend -0.23 pp | |||||
| Jun 1, 1988 | -0.17 pp | +0.04 pp | -0.11 pp | -0.21 pp | +0.24 pp |
| 20-day volatility 0.1 pp; 20-day trend +0.14 pp | |||||
| Feb 14, 1986 | -0.17 pp | -0.04 pp | -0.29 pp | -0.85 pp | -0.69 pp |
| 20-day volatility 0.1 pp; 20-day trend -0.62 pp | |||||
| Oct 29, 1985 | -0.17 pp | -0.14 pp | -0.18 pp | -0.52 pp | -1.03 pp |
| 20-day volatility 0.1 pp; 20-day trend -0.20 pp | |||||
| May 14, 1985 | -0.17 pp | +0.02 pp | -0.27 pp | -0.66 pp | -0.41 pp |
| 20-day volatility 0.1 pp; 20-day trend -0.38 pp | |||||
| Jan 7, 1985 | -0.17 pp | -0.05 pp | +0.10 pp | -0.10 pp | +0.08 pp |
| 20-day volatility 0.1 pp; 20-day trend -0.11 pp | |||||
| Jul 26, 1984 | -0.17 pp | +0.06 pp | -0.15 pp | -0.23 pp | -1.06 pp |
| 20-day volatility 0.1 pp; 20-day trend -0.87 pp | |||||
How different is today?
The same conditions measured on the day of each analogue, against today. A move of the same size in a different regime is a different event.
| Condition | Today | Analogue median | Today is |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20-day realised volatility | 0.1pp | 0.1pp | below |
| 20-day trend | -0.2pp | -0.2pp | negative |
- Today's volatility is lower than in most historical analogues.
- The 20-day trend today is negative; among the analogues it was mostly negative.
- Current conditions differ from the historical cases in ways the table shows and in ways it cannot.
Where the numbers come from
Daily closes from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), series DGS10, 1962 through Oct 22, 2026. Moves are day-over-day changes in the level, in percentage points. The full method, the definitions and what this tool does not claim are on the methodology page. Provenance for every dataset is in the source manifest.
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