The yield curve, tracked
The 10-year Treasury yield minus the 2-year was +0.31 percentage points on Oct 23, 2026; minus the 3-month, +0.78. Below zero the curve is inverted. Every inversion since 1976, how long it lasted, and what came after — the historical record, not a forecast.
Every inversion of the 10-year minus 2-year spread
| Began | Ended | Sessions below zero | Deepest (points) | First recession month after it began |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 6, 2022 | Sep 5, 2024 | 539 | −1.08 on Jul 3, 2023 | None within 36 months |
| Jun 8, 2006 | Mar 20, 2007 | 185 | −0.19 on Nov 15, 2006 | Jan 2008 (19 months after it began) |
| Dec 27, 2005 | Mar 29, 2006 | 35 | −0.16 on Feb 23, 2006 | Jan 2008 (25 months after it began) |
| Feb 2, 2000 | Dec 28, 2000 | 227 | −0.52 on Apr 7, 2000 | Apr 2001 (14 months after it began) |
| May 26, 1998 | Jul 27, 1998 | 27 | −0.07 on Jun 25, 1998 | Apr 2001 (35 months after it began) |
| Aug 11, 1989 | Nov 6, 1989 | 42 | −0.20 on Oct 2, 1989 | Aug 1990 (12 months after it began) |
| Dec 13, 1988 | Jun 29, 1989 | 132 | −0.45 on Mar 28, 1989 | Aug 1990 (20 months after it began) |
| Dec 28, 1981 | Jul 16, 1982 | 119 | −0.71 on Feb 18, 1982 | None within 36 months |
| Sep 12, 1980 | Nov 5, 1981 | 281 | −1.70 on Dec 17, 1980 | Aug 1981 (11 months after it began) |
| Aug 18, 1978 | May 1, 1980 | 423 | −2.41 on Mar 20, 1980 | Feb 1980 (18 months after it began) |
And of the 10-year minus 3-month spread
| Began | Ended | Sessions below zero | Deepest (points) | First recession month after it began |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2025 | Sep 15, 2025 | 85 | −0.27 on Apr 4, 2025 | Too recent to say |
| Oct 18, 2022 | Dec 12, 2024 | 535 | −1.89 on May 4, 2023 | None within 36 months |
| May 13, 2019 | Oct 10, 2019 | 99 | −0.52 on Aug 28, 2019 | Mar 2020 (10 months after it began) |
| Jul 17, 2006 | May 29, 2007 | 218 | −0.64 on Feb 27, 2007 | Jan 2008 (18 months after it began) |
| Jul 7, 2000 | Feb 9, 2001 | 134 | −0.95 on Jan 2, 2001 | Apr 2001 (9 months after it began) |
| Oct 27, 1989 | Dec 28, 1989 | 38 | −0.15 on Dec 19, 1989 | Aug 1990 (10 months after it began) |
| May 22, 1989 | Aug 25, 1989 | 60 | −0.35 on Jun 9, 1989 | Aug 1990 (15 months after it began) |
What the spread is
A Treasury yield is what the government pays to borrow for a given term. Usually longer loans pay more, so the 10-year yield sits above the 2-year and the curve slopes up. When short yields rise above long ones, the curve is inverted: lenders are accepting less to lock money away for ten years than for two. That tends to happen when short rates are high and markets expect them to be lower later. The lesson on the yield curve has the mechanics; inside a Treasury auction shows how the 10-year yield itself is set.
What the record shows, and what it cannot
Of the ten 10-year minus 2-year episodes old enough to judge, eight were followed by a recession month within 36 months of their start. That is a count, not a probability: the sample is small, the lags ran from months to years, and at least one long inversion — the one that began in 2022 — has so far been followed by none. A recession is also dated by the NBER long after it starts, so the most recent months of the recession series can still change.
What this does not say
It does not say whether a recession lies ahead, when one might start, or what any market will do. It is the record of the spread and of what followed it, dated and sourced. Historical context, not a forecast.
Sources
- 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year (T10Y2Y), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
- 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month (T10Y3M), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
- NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States (USREC), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, from the National Bureau of Economic Research
- US Business Cycle Dating, National Bureau of Economic Research