How often markets move 1%, 2% and 3% in a day
For every index, commodity and currency series the site stores: the share of sessions with a move at or beyond 1%, 2% and 3% in each direction, how many a year that is, the sessions since the last one and the longest gap on record. Historical context, not a forecast.
Findings
- The S&P 500 has fallen 2% or more in a day on 4.0% of sessions since 1993 — about 10 a year — and the longest run without one was 896 sessions.
- Falls of 3% or more: 103 sessions of 8,492 (1.21%); the last was 2025-04-10.
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Method
A move is the percentage change between consecutive published closes. Sessions since the last are counted in the series' own trading days. Per year divides the count by the years in the record. No index level is included. Sources: Daily closes from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), Twelve Data; series and identifiers in the source manifest at /market-memory/source-manifest.json. Definitions and biases on the Market Memory methodology page.
Use it
Free to reuse with attribution: “Source: Wealth Signal Market Memory (https://www.wealthsignalnyc.com/research/daily-move-frequency/), as of 2026-10-26.” The CSV holds derived statistics only — frequencies, percentage changes, counts and dates — and no index level, which is the licensed thing.
| series | direction | threshold pct | sessions total | sessions at or beyond | share pct | per year | last date | last move pct | sessions since last | longest gap sessions | since | as of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) | down | 1.0 | 8492 | 1073 | 12.635 | 31.84 | 2026-10-22 | -1.181 | 2 | 113 | 1993 | 2026-10-26 |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | down | 2.0 | 8492 | 340 | 4.004 | 10.09 | 2026-06-05 | -2.581 | 98 | 896 | 1993 | 2026-10-26 |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | down | 3.0 | 8492 | 103 | 1.213 | 3.06 | 2025-04-10 | -4.382 | 387 | 989 | 1993 | 2026-10-26 |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | up | 1.0 | 8492 | 1173 | 13.813 | 34.81 | 2026-09-21 | 1.55 | 25 | 95 | 1993 | 2026-10-26 |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | up | 2.0 | 8492 | 273 | 3.215 | 8.1 | 2026-04-08 | 2.547 | 139 | 681 | 1993 | 2026-10-26 |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | up | 3.0 | 8492 | 100 | 1.178 | 2.97 | 2025-05-12 | 3.305 | 366 | 1175 | 1993 | 2026-10-26 |
| Nasdaq Composite | down | 1.0 | 14047 | 1920 | 13.668 | 34.44 | 2026-10-22 | -2.599 | 1 | 183 | 1971 | 2026-10-23 |
| Nasdaq Composite | down | 2.0 | 14047 | 736 | 5.24 | 13.2 | 2026-10-22 | -2.599 | 1 | 725 | 1971 | 2026-10-23 |
| Nasdaq Composite | down | 3.0 | 14047 | 266 | 1.894 | 4.77 | 2026-06-05 | -4.18 | 97 | 1436 | 1971 | 2026-10-23 |
| Nasdaq Composite | up | 1.0 | 14047 | 2010 | 14.309 | 36.06 | 2026-10-21 | 1.052 | 2 | 395 | 1971 | 2026-10-23 |
| Nasdaq Composite | up | 2.0 | 14047 | 593 | 4.222 | 10.64 | 2026-09-21 | 2.26 | 24 | 788 | 1971 | 2026-10-23 |
| Nasdaq Composite | up | 3.0 | 14047 | 214 | 1.523 | 3.84 | 2026-06-15 | 3.071 | 91 | 1100 | 1971 | 2026-10-23 |
| Dow Jones (DIA) | down | 1.0 | 7236 | 904 | 12.493 | 31.48 | 2026-10-23 | -1.235 | 1 | 110 | 1998 | 2026-10-26 |
| Dow Jones (DIA) | down | 2.0 | 7236 | 273 | 3.773 | 9.51 | 2026-07-29 | -2.179 | 62 | 620 | 1998 | 2026-10-26 |
| Dow Jones (DIA) | down | 3.0 | 7236 | 89 | 1.23 | 3.1 | 2025-04-04 | -5.429 | 391 | 989 | 1998 | 2026-10-26 |
| Dow Jones (DIA) | up | 1.0 | 7236 | 983 | 13.585 | 34.23 | 2026-10-20 | 1.048 | 4 | 96 | 1998 | 2026-10-26 |
| Dow Jones (DIA) | up | 2.0 | 7236 | 233 | 3.22 | 8.11 | 2026-04-08 | 2.851 | 139 | 1072 | 1998 | 2026-10-26 |
| Dow Jones (DIA) | up | 3.0 | 7236 | 76 | 1.05 | 2.65 | 2025-04-09 | 7.862 | 388 | 1255 | 1998 | 2026-10-26 |
| Russell 2000 (IWM) | down | 1.0 | 6642 | 1325 | 19.949 | 50.27 | 2026-10-16 | -1.687 | 6 | 74 | 2000 | 2026-10-26 |
| Russell 2000 (IWM) | down | 2.0 | 6642 | 453 | 6.82 | 17.19 | 2026-06-05 | -3.548 | 98 | 181 | 2000 | 2026-10-26 |
| Russell 2000 (IWM) | down | 3.0 | 6642 | 156 | 2.349 | 5.92 | 2026-06-05 | -3.548 | 98 | 655 | 2000 | 2026-10-26 |
| Russell 2000 (IWM) | up | 1.0 | 6642 | 1404 | 21.138 | 53.27 | 2026-10-20 | 1.659 | 4 | 39 | 2000 | 2026-10-26 |
| Russell 2000 (IWM) | up | 2.0 | 6642 | 454 | 6.835 | 17.22 | 2026-06-11 | 2.964 | 94 | 342 | 2000 | 2026-10-26 |
| Russell 2000 (IWM) | up | 3.0 | 6642 | 153 | 2.304 | 5.8 | 2026-03-31 | 3.502 | 144 | 923 | 2000 | 2026-10-26 |
| VIX | down | 1.0 | 9301 | 4183 | 44.974 | 113.33 | 2026-10-21 | -3.64 | 2 | 11 | 1990 | 2026-10-23 |
| VIX | down | 2.0 | 9301 | 3439 | 36.975 | 93.18 | 2026-10-21 | -3.64 | 2 | 14 | 1990 | 2026-10-23 |
| VIX | down | 3.0 | 9301 | 2762 | 29.696 | 74.83 | 2026-10-21 | -3.64 | 2 | 19 | 1990 | 2026-10-23 |
| VIX | up | 1.0 | 9301 | 3629 | 39.017 | 98.32 | 2026-10-23 | 2.207 | 0 | 20 | 1990 | 2026-10-23 |
| VIX | up | 2.0 | 9301 | 3029 | 32.566 | 82.07 | 2026-10-23 | 2.207 | 0 | 20 | 1990 | 2026-10-23 |
| VIX | up | 3.0 | 9301 | 2463 | 26.481 | 66.73 | 2026-10-22 | 14.089 | 1 | 30 | 1990 | 2026-10-23 |
| Bitcoin | down | 1.0 | 4311 | 1197 | 27.766 | 101.35 | 2026-10-22 | -3.456 | 3 | 39 | 2014 | 2026-10-25 |
| Bitcoin | down | 2.0 | 4311 | 760 | 17.629 | 64.35 | 2026-10-22 | -3.456 | 3 | 54 | 2014 | 2026-10-25 |
| Bitcoin | down | 3.0 | 4311 | 490 | 11.366 | 41.49 | 2026-10-22 | -3.456 | 3 | 102 | 2014 | 2026-10-25 |
| Bitcoin | up | 1.0 | 4311 | 1424 | 33.032 | 120.57 | 2026-10-21 | 1.549 | 4 | 20 | 2014 | 2026-10-25 |
| Bitcoin | up | 2.0 | 4311 | 900 | 20.877 | 76.2 | 2026-09-21 | 6.33 | 34 | 45 | 2014 | 2026-10-25 |
| Bitcoin | up | 3.0 | 4311 | 599 | 13.895 | 50.72 | 2026-09-21 | 6.33 | 34 | 97 | 2014 | 2026-10-25 |
| Gold | down | 1.0 | 12310 | 1447 | 11.755 | 29.62 | 2026-10-22 | -2.622 | 4 | 218 | 1979 | 2026-10-26 |
| Gold | down | 2.0 | 12310 | 439 | 3.566 | 8.99 | 2026-10-22 | -2.622 | 4 | 895 | 1979 | 2026-10-26 |
| Gold | down | 3.0 | 12310 | 159 | 1.292 | 3.25 | 2026-09-28 | -3.988 | 28 | 1076 | 1979 | 2026-10-26 |
| Gold | up | 1.0 | 12310 | 1629 | 13.233 | 33.35 | 2026-10-15 | 1.228 | 11 | 256 | 1979 | 2026-10-26 |