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Diversification
Owning things that do not fail for the same reason. Not owning lots of things — owning things with different causes of loss.
Diversification is the only thing in investing that reliably reduces risk without a matching reduction in expected return. That is unusual enough to be worth understanding properly.
What it actually requires
Fact
It is about correlation, not count
Owning thirty technology companies is not diversified. They share customers, suppliers, funding conditions and sentiment, so they fall together. Diversification requires holdings whose fortunes depend on different things, not merely holdings that are numerous.
Owning thirty technology companies is not diversified. They share customers, suppliers, funding conditions and sentiment, so they fall together. Diversification requires holdings whose fortunes depend on different things, not merely holdings that are numerous.
Two kinds of risk
- Idiosyncratic. Specific to one company — a failed product, a fraud, a lost lawsuit. This is the risk diversification removes.
- Systematic. Affecting everything at once — a rate shock, a recession, a war. Diversification within one asset class does not remove this, because it is the thing that makes everything move together.
This is why the worst days in markets feel like diversification stopped working. It did not stop working; it never addressed that risk in the first place.
Where the real diversification lives
- Across asset classes. Shares, bonds and cash respond differently to the same shock.
- Across geographies. Though less than they used to, since large economies are increasingly linked.
- Across time. Buying at multiple moments rather than one, which diversifies the price you pay.
Interpretation
There is a point past which it stops helping
The marginal benefit falls away quickly — most of the reduction in company-specific risk comes from the first couple of dozen genuinely different holdings. Beyond that you are mostly adding admin, and eventually you own so much of the market that you have simply bought the market, at higher cost.
The marginal benefit falls away quickly — most of the reduction in company-specific risk comes from the first couple of dozen genuinely different holdings. Beyond that you are mostly adding admin, and eventually you own so much of the market that you have simply bought the market, at higher cost.
The most common failure is not too few holdings. It is many holdings that turn out, in a bad month, to have been the same bet in different wrappers.
Education, not advice. These lessons explain how things work. They do not tell you what
to buy, and Wealth Signal does not publish recommendations. Full disclaimer.