When is the next retail sales report?

What it measures

Retail sales report what Americans spent at stores, restaurants, gas stations and online over the previous month. It is one of the earliest reads on consumer demand, which is why it moves markets despite being a partial measure — it covers goods and food service, and leaves out most of the services where households spend the rest.

What it does not say

The Census Bureau does not take inflation out of this number, and says so in the release. A 1% rise in a month when prices rose 1% is flat demand reported as growth. The advance estimate is also exactly that: a first pass from a smaller sample, revised the following month. And because gasoline is in the total, a swing in fuel prices can drive the headline in a direction that has nothing to do with whether people are buying more.

Commonly confused: nominal and real

This release is not adjusted for inflation. Consumer spending as reported in Personal Income and Outlays is. The two are quoted interchangeably as evidence about the consumer, but in a month when prices rose as fast as sales, one of them shows growth and the other shows none, and both are correct.

Where to look first when it lands

• The control group, which strips out autos, gasoline, building materials and food service, and is what feeds GDP.
• Gas stations as a line item, to see how much of the move is just fuel.
• The revision to last month, printed alongside and routinely ignored.

No forecast, on purpose

There is no consensus figure on this page. Consensus is a licensed product — a survey of economists, compiled and sold by a data vendor — and we do not license it. A date with no forecast beside it is a fact. A date with an invented forecast beside it is a fabrication with a decimal point on it.