When is the next GDP report?

What it measures

GDP is the total value of everything produced in the economy over a quarter, reported as an annualised rate of change after inflation is removed. Each quarter is published three times: an advance estimate roughly a month after the quarter ends, then a second and a third estimate as fuller data arrives. All three are called the GDP report.

What it does not say

GDP is not a measure of how the economy feels, and it is not current. The advance estimate describes a quarter that ended weeks ago and is built partly from assumptions the BEA states openly, which is why revisions between the three estimates are routinely large enough to change the story. Growth also says nothing about distribution: an economy can grow while most households see no gain, and the single figure cannot tell you which happened.

Commonly confused: the three estimates

Each quarter is published three times — advance, second and third — as fuller source data arrives, and every one of them is reported as 'the GDP report'. The revisions between them are frequently large enough to reverse the narrative, so the useful question on any GDP headline is which of the three it is quoting.

Where to look first when it lands

• Which estimate this is — advance, second or third — because they are not equally firm.
• Consumer spending, roughly two thirds of the total and the part that drives it.
• Inventories, which can flatter or depress a quarter without anything real changing.

No forecast, on purpose

There is no consensus figure on this page. Consensus is a licensed product — a survey of economists, compiled and sold by a data vendor — and we do not license it. A date with no forecast beside it is a fact. A date with an invented forecast beside it is a fabrication with a decimal point on it.