When is the next CPI report?

What it measures

The Consumer Price Index measures what a fixed basket of goods and services costs a household this month against what the same basket cost a year ago. The headline number is that year-over-year change. Core CPI is the same calculation with food and energy removed, on the reasoning that those two move for reasons — a cold snap, an oil decision — that say little about whether inflation is embedded in the rest of the economy.

What it does not say

CPI is not the cost of living, and it is not your cost of living. It is one basket, weighted by what a statistical average household buys. If your rent renewed this year and your neighbour's did not, the same published number describes two different experiences. It is also a measure of the rate of change: inflation falling from 4% to 3% means prices are still rising, just more slowly, which is why a reassuring headline and an unchanged supermarket bill are both true at once.

Commonly confused: CPI and PCE

Both are inflation, and they disagree by design. CPI is the Bureau of Labor Statistics' fixed basket; PCE is the Bureau of Economic Analysis' broader measure with weights that shift as people substitute, and it is the one the Fed's 2% target is written in. PCE usually prints a few tenths lower. A headline saying inflation is at target is almost always quoting PCE; a headline about the cost of the weekly shop is almost always quoting CPI.

Where to look first when it lands

• Shelter, which is about a third of the index and lags real rents by months.
• The gap between headline and core — a wide one means energy is doing the work.
• Revisions to the previous month, which are quiet and change the trend.

No forecast, on purpose

There is no consensus figure on this page. Consensus is a licensed product — a survey of economists, compiled and sold by a data vendor — and we do not license it. A date with no forecast beside it is a fact. A date with an invented forecast beside it is a fabrication with a decimal point on it.